Player R.J. Barrett
- Thread starter torontoduke
- Start date
Pantone287
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 13,488
Huge, huge fan of his new strategy of literally just throwing the ball up in the air in the vicinity of Zion and the rim and assuming he'll catch it and score. Should be a safe bet for a triple double every game going forward.
torontoduke
Legend
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2012
- Messages
- 13,130
He is a tough kid. I thought he played intelligent ball except for 2 forced shots. He and Bolden were getting mixed up on switches, though.
I also was able to catch the last 6 min of the Cardinals game, where I thought he played well (even though reading through this thread he did not play well for the first 34 minutes, apparently).
rome8180
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 52,246
I'm not good enough at analyzing on-court action to know exactly what State was doing. But Bolden kept ending up on guards 30 feet out. That wasn't just our defense, but rather Keatts and State forcing our defense into a weakness.
As good a defender as Bolden is, that's a situation that makes me hold my breath waiting for the blow-by. To his credit, his recoveries in the second half were much better and he was able to guard on the perimeter and then quickly drop back to deflect a pass or block a shot.
As good a defender as Bolden is, that's a situation that makes me hold my breath waiting for the blow-by. To his credit, his recoveries in the second half were much better and he was able to guard on the perimeter and then quickly drop back to deflect a pass or block a shot.
bdotling
All American
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 6,695
Not sure if this is exactly what they were doing but it felt like they were just running pick and rolls with the big rolling hard straight to the basket. Our guards wouldn’t fully switch though or would switch late so often the big would be open because the other three players would just camp out on the perimeter and if one of our other defenders came to help in the lane, that player would cut to the basket as a secondary action
rhfarmer
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 14,710
I mean, it is basketball 101. It works against K because K insists on ball denial 30 feet from the hoop.
krsmith16
All American
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2012
- Messages
- 2,616
Welcome home, @torontoduke!
niveklaen
All American
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2016
- Messages
- 1,316
RJ .504 2p%, .335 3p%, 4.0 apg, 2.8 t/o 7.4rpg, 22.7ppg
Tatum .452 2p%, .352 3p%, 2.1 apg, 2.6 t/o 7.3rpg, 16.8ppg
Ingram .442 2p%, .410 3p%, 2.0 apg, 2.0 t/o 6.8rpg, 17.3ppg
Winslow .486 2p%, .418 3p%, 2.1 apg, 1.8 t/o 6.5rpg, 12.6ppg
Jabari .473 2p%, .358 3p%, 1.2 apg, 2.3 t/o 8.7rpg, 19.1ppg
Deng .513 2p%, .360 3p%, 1.8 apg, 2.2 t/o, 6.9rpg, 15.1ppg
...thought that I would update these numbers since they were dismissed out of hand last time because we were only 10ish games into the season.
RJ still way ahead of the others in assists and A/TO ratio while offsetting his bad (and worsening) 3p% with better (and improving) 2p%
we are underselling RJ because he happens to be playing next to a god, but he is arguably the best of our OAD wings (yes, I am treating Zion and Bagly as posts for this purpose...)
Tatum .452 2p%, .352 3p%, 2.1 apg, 2.6 t/o 7.3rpg, 16.8ppg
Ingram .442 2p%, .410 3p%, 2.0 apg, 2.0 t/o 6.8rpg, 17.3ppg
Winslow .486 2p%, .418 3p%, 2.1 apg, 1.8 t/o 6.5rpg, 12.6ppg
Jabari .473 2p%, .358 3p%, 1.2 apg, 2.3 t/o 8.7rpg, 19.1ppg
Deng .513 2p%, .360 3p%, 1.8 apg, 2.2 t/o, 6.9rpg, 15.1ppg
...thought that I would update these numbers since they were dismissed out of hand last time because we were only 10ish games into the season.
RJ still way ahead of the others in assists and A/TO ratio while offsetting his bad (and worsening) 3p% with better (and improving) 2p%
we are underselling RJ because he happens to be playing next to a god, but he is arguably the best of our OAD wings (yes, I am treating Zion and Bagly as posts for this purpose...)
physicsfactor
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 22, 2012
- Messages
- 16,672
This guy will either be fantastic or complete shit tonight. There is no middle ground.
dukeboy911
All American
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2018
- Messages
- 5,618
Coming off a triple double, he's bound to have a letdown. Great timing.
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,238
We shouldn’t look at 2pt% and 3pt% and try to decide whether one outweighs the other when comparing players. There are pretty basic stats that do that perfectly for us, like eFG and TS. We also shouldn’t ignore free throws when trying to conclude whether one player is better than another. TS takes care of that.
If you really want to compare all those wings, why not use better stats? Barrett could be the best among them, but it's not great to base it on eyeballing 2pt%, 3pt% and ast/to.
Barrett:
.533 TS
11.3% Reb
21.6% Ast
1.5% Stl
1.1% Blk
11.5% TO
.223 WS/40
7.5 BPM
24.2 PER
Tatum:
.566 TS
12.6% Reb
12.4% Ast
2.3% Stl
3.2% Blk
15.0% TO
.169 WS/40
7.5 BPM
22.0 PER
Ingram:
.552 TS
10.8% Reb
11.4% Ast
1.9% Stl
3.6% Blk
11.3% TO
.157 WS/40
7.5 BPM
22.5 PER
Winslow:
.572 TS
13.1% Reb
13.2% Ast
2.8% Stl
2.9% Blk
14.2% TO
.196 WS/40
10.4 BPM
22.3 PER
Parker
.558 TS
17.1% Reb
8.6% Ast
2.1% Stl
4.0% Blk
11.9% TO
.205 WS/40
6.6 BPM
28.4 PER
Deng
.551 TS
12.6% Reb
11.8% Ast
no steal% data
2.3% Blk
14.1% TO
.195 WS/40
no BPM data
no PER data
None of this should be surprising, other than maybe the most recent three guys all having the exact same BPM. Barrett is clearly the best passer/playmaker, looking at Ast% and TO%. Rebounding was fairly similar between all of them, except Parker, but rebounding is largely context-based (who played the most time as the biggest guy on the court for Duke, who played the most as the second-biggest guy, how good were the rebounders around them, etc.?).
As for shooting, Barrett is predictably at the bottom of this group judging by TS, but you have to take into account the shots he's trying to take. Do you value an inefficient player more if he takes lots of shots because his team needs him to? What if he's playing with someone much better than him - do you still "reward" him for taking all those shots? Barrett has by far the highest WS/40 in this group, and his PER stacks up favorably against everyone except Parker. This reflects Barrett's usage, raw production per minute, and how much of a burden he tries to carry. WS/40 and PER rewards his and Parker's volume over efficiency. BPM focuses more on efficiency, and even there, Barrett holds his own, but he's not ahead of the pack.
Defense, as always, is the toughest thing to judge objectively. Based on Stl% and Blk%, Barrett looks like an awful, inactive, non-positive player on defense. People who have watched him extensively on defense might say this aligns with their eye test - he's often the weak link in Duke's defense. Defense is somewhat included in WS/40, PER and BPM, and based on those taken altogether, Barrett's defense isn't so bad that it outweighs his offense compared to these other guys. That also makes sense - it's almost impossible for a no-offense lock-down defender to make the same kind of difference a no-defense offensive star makes.
This would be a debate along the same lines as discussing Russell Westbrook's value in the NBA. Reasonable people can have widely varying views. You're going to get a view on Duke-Forum that is strongly anti-Westbrook, because most people here value efficiency more than anything else. If you want to pick one single stat to emphasize when comparing players, I would personally go with BPM, and I think it tells an accurate story here: Barrett is similar in overall quality to freshmen Ingram and Tatum, better than Parker, and not in the same league as Winslow.
There are limits to BPM's usefulness, obviously. Antonio Vrankovic and Justin Robinson are having better seasons than Barrett by BPM, for example. Comparing Barrett to his own teammates with more similar usage and more similar minutes, Barrett's 7.5 BPM is way behind Zion's 21.3 and significantly ahead of Reddish's 6.1. Again, this feels right. Tre is at 8.1, but I wouldn't compare Tre to those other three due to his much different role.
If you really want to compare all those wings, why not use better stats? Barrett could be the best among them, but it's not great to base it on eyeballing 2pt%, 3pt% and ast/to.
Barrett:
.533 TS
11.3% Reb
21.6% Ast
1.5% Stl
1.1% Blk
11.5% TO
.223 WS/40
7.5 BPM
24.2 PER
Tatum:
.566 TS
12.6% Reb
12.4% Ast
2.3% Stl
3.2% Blk
15.0% TO
.169 WS/40
7.5 BPM
22.0 PER
Ingram:
.552 TS
10.8% Reb
11.4% Ast
1.9% Stl
3.6% Blk
11.3% TO
.157 WS/40
7.5 BPM
22.5 PER
Winslow:
.572 TS
13.1% Reb
13.2% Ast
2.8% Stl
2.9% Blk
14.2% TO
.196 WS/40
10.4 BPM
22.3 PER
Parker
.558 TS
17.1% Reb
8.6% Ast
2.1% Stl
4.0% Blk
11.9% TO
.205 WS/40
6.6 BPM
28.4 PER
Deng
.551 TS
12.6% Reb
11.8% Ast
no steal% data
2.3% Blk
14.1% TO
.195 WS/40
no BPM data
no PER data
None of this should be surprising, other than maybe the most recent three guys all having the exact same BPM. Barrett is clearly the best passer/playmaker, looking at Ast% and TO%. Rebounding was fairly similar between all of them, except Parker, but rebounding is largely context-based (who played the most time as the biggest guy on the court for Duke, who played the most as the second-biggest guy, how good were the rebounders around them, etc.?).
As for shooting, Barrett is predictably at the bottom of this group judging by TS, but you have to take into account the shots he's trying to take. Do you value an inefficient player more if he takes lots of shots because his team needs him to? What if he's playing with someone much better than him - do you still "reward" him for taking all those shots? Barrett has by far the highest WS/40 in this group, and his PER stacks up favorably against everyone except Parker. This reflects Barrett's usage, raw production per minute, and how much of a burden he tries to carry. WS/40 and PER rewards his and Parker's volume over efficiency. BPM focuses more on efficiency, and even there, Barrett holds his own, but he's not ahead of the pack.
Defense, as always, is the toughest thing to judge objectively. Based on Stl% and Blk%, Barrett looks like an awful, inactive, non-positive player on defense. People who have watched him extensively on defense might say this aligns with their eye test - he's often the weak link in Duke's defense. Defense is somewhat included in WS/40, PER and BPM, and based on those taken altogether, Barrett's defense isn't so bad that it outweighs his offense compared to these other guys. That also makes sense - it's almost impossible for a no-offense lock-down defender to make the same kind of difference a no-defense offensive star makes.
This would be a debate along the same lines as discussing Russell Westbrook's value in the NBA. Reasonable people can have widely varying views. You're going to get a view on Duke-Forum that is strongly anti-Westbrook, because most people here value efficiency more than anything else. If you want to pick one single stat to emphasize when comparing players, I would personally go with BPM, and I think it tells an accurate story here: Barrett is similar in overall quality to freshmen Ingram and Tatum, better than Parker, and not in the same league as Winslow.
There are limits to BPM's usefulness, obviously. Antonio Vrankovic and Justin Robinson are having better seasons than Barrett by BPM, for example. Comparing Barrett to his own teammates with more similar usage and more similar minutes, Barrett's 7.5 BPM is way behind Zion's 21.3 and significantly ahead of Reddish's 6.1. Again, this feels right. Tre is at 8.1, but I wouldn't compare Tre to those other three due to his much different role.
Last edited:
niveklaen
All American
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2016
- Messages
- 1,316
thanks for the additional data - I agree that TS% is a much better measure than the shooting %s that I pulled from ESPN.
one follow-on in RJ's support is your comment about how context means a lot in rebounding. I agree and it makes RJ's rebounding numbers much more impressive. All of those other guys spent most of their time at the 4, often in 3 guard line-ups, where they would be expected to pick up a lot more rebounds whereas RJ has spent almost all of his time at the 3 next to 2 bigs and a 6'7 shooting guard.
one follow-on in RJ's support is your comment about how context means a lot in rebounding. I agree and it makes RJ's rebounding numbers much more impressive. All of those other guys spent most of their time at the 4, often in 3 guard line-ups, where they would be expected to pick up a lot more rebounds whereas RJ has spent almost all of his time at the 3 next to 2 bigs and a 6'7 shooting guard.
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,820
deepdarkblue
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 16,020
I can't believe you guys ever doubted this kid.