Yeah, they need to at least make the sweet sixteen. I do think they will be good. Their two star freshmen looked really nice to me in the all-star games, and I think Wheeler is back. I'm sure they'll do fine in the portal. They are basically UNC with a bunch of perimeter pieces and a rebounding/putback machine down low.
Even if they have a decent year, though, I think Cal's days are numbered. The bitterness is approaching the level needed to stomach a freaking MASSIVE buyout.