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A peculiar Duke team heads down the stretch with a stalwart zone defense but an offense searching for steady guard play.
LOUISVILLE
Wednesday, February 21, 9:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
36 overall
56 offense
23 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 87, Louisville 75 (Duke 86%)
New head coach David Padgett will get a pass for this season, given the filth he had to dig out of (pictured above), but Louisville should be better than this with their returning upperclassmen and they certainly shouldn't have been destroyed at home by UNC in their last game.
Louisville's defense is mostly the same as last year and mostly excellent.
Padgett has done his best to maintain Pitino's defense from last year, as Louisville continues to be one of those rare teams that can both protect the rim and take away 3s. They're elite at 2pt defense (#9 2pt%, #8 block%) and very good at 3pt defense (#49 3pt%, #73 3pt attempt rate). They also generate a good amount of turnovers (#107 turnover rate, #41 steal%). Most concerning for opponents, Louisville is doing this without fouling nearly as much as last season (#86 FT rate allowed).
Similar to facing Florida State, Duke's best bet will probably be to get ugly shots off and go after the rebounds. Louisville's only weakness on defense is their terrible rebounding (#293 defensive rebounding rate), which is especially egregious considering they don't play much zone. Anas Mahmoud has given Duke problems throughout his career by altering shots (12% block rate this season), but his aggressiveness gives up rebounds; he's a terrible defensive rebounder for a 7-footer (15% rate). Marvin Bagley would likely feast on Anas if he returns for this one.
Louisville's offense is still gross, so Padgett has them running more.
Whereas Louisville's defensive possessions are among the slowest in the country (#342 average possession length), Louisville's offensive possessions are among the fastest (#16). Their 59.6% eFG in transition is 78th in the country, while their 50.4% eFG in non-transition is 150th. They should run, and Padgett knows it. Against Duke, this is especially true, as Duke's transition defense continues to be awful (#183 eFG in transition, compared with #20 eFG in non-transition), and Louisville seems ill-equipped to handle Duke's full-time 2-3 zone in a halfcourt game.
Louisville is not a bad 3-point shooting team (#109 3pt%), but they much prefer to take 2s (#237 3pt attempt rate). They're surprisingly poor on the offensive glass for how big they are (#165 offensive rebounding rate, #15 average height). Given the lack of a threat Louisville poses in busting a zone, this would not be the time for Duke to waver from its new defensive identity. If Duke were still sticking to its usual man-to-man, senior PG Quentin Snider running pick-and-rolls would be more frightening, as he shoots 39% from 3, 89% from the line and takes care of the ball (14% turnover rate).
SYRACUSE
Saturday, February 24, 6:00pm ET, ESPN or ESPN2
Kenpom rankings:
45 overall
109 offense
12 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 78, Syracuse 65 (Duke 88%)
If you need to miss a Duke game from here on out, this is a good one to miss. On paper, Syracuse may be the least appealing major conference team in the nation to watch. The most intriguing aspect of this game will be seeing how the 2-3 zone coached by the master, Jim Boeheim, looks compared with the 2-3 zone coached by the apprentice, Coach K.
Syracuse's offense is like the worst case scenario for Duke's offense going into the season.
Many Duke fans were concerned that this Duke team would be inept at shooting 3s, lack the backcourt depth to run very much and need to rely on offensive rebounding to have decent efficiency. Syracuse is what this ugly brand of basketball looks like in reality. They are #332 in average possession length, #340 in tempo and #258 in percentage of initial shot attempts in transition. In other words, they play super-slow. This is necessary for Boeheim to play his normal rotation without certain players being exhausted, as three of his players are in the top 10 in college basketball in minutes. Duke fans thought Coach K would rely on his top guys a lot this season, perhaps to a fault; Boeheim takes this to a completely different level.
If Duke's offense has been "not modern" this season, Syracuse's offense has been prehistoric. They are a terrible shooting team and they hate taking 3s (#310 3pt%, #302 3pt attempt rate). That would be somewhat acceptable if they were great at getting to the rim and making 2s. They are not (#265 2pt%). They take a lot of midrange jumpers (#59 highest midrange attempt rate). If there is a Syracuse-Forum.com, they have all lit themselves on fire by now. All Syracuse tries to do on offense is create contact and grab rebounds, both of which they are excellent at (#18 FT attempt rate, #13 offensive rebounding rate). For Duke fans, watching Syracuse will provide a window to see just how ugly Duke's offense could have turned out this season.
Syracuse's defense is one of Boeheim's best ever.
For those who have not watched Syracuse play basketball in the last 40 years, note that they play a 2-3 zone. This year, Syracuse's zone is even better than usual; it's on track to be Boeheim's 2nd best by efficiency in Kenpom history (since 2002). The hallmarks of a prototypical 2-3 zone are all there: elite rim protection (#7 2pt%, #2 block rate), disruption in passing lanes leading to steals (#9 steal rate), with the sacrifices of poor rebounding (#155 defensive rebounding rate) and playing the 3-point lottery (#337 3pt attempt deterrence, #73 3pt% allowed).
7-2 junior Paschal Chukwu (pictured above) is the Wendell Carter-like anchor that makes this defense possible. Like Carter, Chukwu is a monster rim protector (13% block rate), plays about two-thirds of the minutes and looks good in glasses and goggles. Unlike Carter, Chukwu is nothing more than low-usage cleanup on offense, but he could create foul problems for Duke with his rebounding activity; his 78% FT attempt rate is #10 in the country.
at VIRGINIA TECH
Monday, February 26, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
34 overall
20 offense
82 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 85, VT 81 (Duke 67%)
In a scheduling quirk, this will be Duke's third rematch of the season that comes less than two weeks after the first matchup. It's safe to assume VT will remember Duke's zone well and be fully prepared to attack it this time around. There's a good chance this will be the first time Duke's improved zone is totally eviscerated.
If the zone holds up here, against a great offense that's well-equipped to shoot over it, then it should be able to hold up against just about any team in the NCAA Tournament. If it blows up miserably, Duke's chances of beating six teams in a row in March will seem much different. We should also know by the time this game tips off whether Bagley will ever play another game for Duke.
NORTH CAROLINA
Saturday, March 3, 8:15pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
7 overall
6 offense
31 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 89, UNC 82 (Duke 73%)
As has been discussed here in previous seasons, the final regular season game between Duke and UNC has had incredible predictive value on how each team performs in the NCAA Tournament.
2017
Winner: UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in 2nd round
2016
UNC
UNC lost in title game
Duke lost in S16
2015
Duke
Duke won title
UNC lost in S16
2014
Duke
Duke lost in R1
UNC lost in R2
2013
Duke
Duke lost in E8
UNC lost in R2
2012
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in R1
2011
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in S16
2010
Duke
Duke won title
UNC to NIT
2009
UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in S16
2008
UNC
UNC lost in F4
Duke lost in R2
2007
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in R1
2006
UNC
UNC lost in R2
Duke lost in S16
2005
UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in S16
2004
Duke
Duke lost in F4
UNC lost in R2
Since 2004, which covers the last 14 seasons, the loser of this game has never advanced past the Sweet Sixteen. In 8 of 14, the loser's season has ended in the 2nd round or sooner. On the other hand, in 12 of 14, the winner has reached at least the Elite Eight. In 8 of 14, the winner has reached at least the Final Four.
Believing in historical performance to project future results is not entirely rational. However, it's difficult to see this trend over 14 years and not believe this game is important for reasons beyond the obvious. If Duke gets swept, their fate may be sealed as yet another underachieving freshman-filled team that will get outworked and outplayed by an underdog in the Tournament. If Duke wins, they will appear to be well-positioned to make a deep run.
At #3 on Kenpom, this would be the highest ranked Duke team entering the Tournament since 2011. With a new defense in place that looks like it actually works, it's easier to believe in this team. They must win this game, though.
LOUISVILLE
Wednesday, February 21, 9:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
36 overall
56 offense
23 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 87, Louisville 75 (Duke 86%)
New head coach David Padgett will get a pass for this season, given the filth he had to dig out of (pictured above), but Louisville should be better than this with their returning upperclassmen and they certainly shouldn't have been destroyed at home by UNC in their last game.
Louisville's defense is mostly the same as last year and mostly excellent.
Padgett has done his best to maintain Pitino's defense from last year, as Louisville continues to be one of those rare teams that can both protect the rim and take away 3s. They're elite at 2pt defense (#9 2pt%, #8 block%) and very good at 3pt defense (#49 3pt%, #73 3pt attempt rate). They also generate a good amount of turnovers (#107 turnover rate, #41 steal%). Most concerning for opponents, Louisville is doing this without fouling nearly as much as last season (#86 FT rate allowed).
Similar to facing Florida State, Duke's best bet will probably be to get ugly shots off and go after the rebounds. Louisville's only weakness on defense is their terrible rebounding (#293 defensive rebounding rate), which is especially egregious considering they don't play much zone. Anas Mahmoud has given Duke problems throughout his career by altering shots (12% block rate this season), but his aggressiveness gives up rebounds; he's a terrible defensive rebounder for a 7-footer (15% rate). Marvin Bagley would likely feast on Anas if he returns for this one.
Louisville's offense is still gross, so Padgett has them running more.
Whereas Louisville's defensive possessions are among the slowest in the country (#342 average possession length), Louisville's offensive possessions are among the fastest (#16). Their 59.6% eFG in transition is 78th in the country, while their 50.4% eFG in non-transition is 150th. They should run, and Padgett knows it. Against Duke, this is especially true, as Duke's transition defense continues to be awful (#183 eFG in transition, compared with #20 eFG in non-transition), and Louisville seems ill-equipped to handle Duke's full-time 2-3 zone in a halfcourt game.
Louisville is not a bad 3-point shooting team (#109 3pt%), but they much prefer to take 2s (#237 3pt attempt rate). They're surprisingly poor on the offensive glass for how big they are (#165 offensive rebounding rate, #15 average height). Given the lack of a threat Louisville poses in busting a zone, this would not be the time for Duke to waver from its new defensive identity. If Duke were still sticking to its usual man-to-man, senior PG Quentin Snider running pick-and-rolls would be more frightening, as he shoots 39% from 3, 89% from the line and takes care of the ball (14% turnover rate).
SYRACUSE
Saturday, February 24, 6:00pm ET, ESPN or ESPN2
Kenpom rankings:
45 overall
109 offense
12 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 78, Syracuse 65 (Duke 88%)
If you need to miss a Duke game from here on out, this is a good one to miss. On paper, Syracuse may be the least appealing major conference team in the nation to watch. The most intriguing aspect of this game will be seeing how the 2-3 zone coached by the master, Jim Boeheim, looks compared with the 2-3 zone coached by the apprentice, Coach K.
Syracuse's offense is like the worst case scenario for Duke's offense going into the season.
Many Duke fans were concerned that this Duke team would be inept at shooting 3s, lack the backcourt depth to run very much and need to rely on offensive rebounding to have decent efficiency. Syracuse is what this ugly brand of basketball looks like in reality. They are #332 in average possession length, #340 in tempo and #258 in percentage of initial shot attempts in transition. In other words, they play super-slow. This is necessary for Boeheim to play his normal rotation without certain players being exhausted, as three of his players are in the top 10 in college basketball in minutes. Duke fans thought Coach K would rely on his top guys a lot this season, perhaps to a fault; Boeheim takes this to a completely different level.
If Duke's offense has been "not modern" this season, Syracuse's offense has been prehistoric. They are a terrible shooting team and they hate taking 3s (#310 3pt%, #302 3pt attempt rate). That would be somewhat acceptable if they were great at getting to the rim and making 2s. They are not (#265 2pt%). They take a lot of midrange jumpers (#59 highest midrange attempt rate). If there is a Syracuse-Forum.com, they have all lit themselves on fire by now. All Syracuse tries to do on offense is create contact and grab rebounds, both of which they are excellent at (#18 FT attempt rate, #13 offensive rebounding rate). For Duke fans, watching Syracuse will provide a window to see just how ugly Duke's offense could have turned out this season.
Syracuse's defense is one of Boeheim's best ever.
For those who have not watched Syracuse play basketball in the last 40 years, note that they play a 2-3 zone. This year, Syracuse's zone is even better than usual; it's on track to be Boeheim's 2nd best by efficiency in Kenpom history (since 2002). The hallmarks of a prototypical 2-3 zone are all there: elite rim protection (#7 2pt%, #2 block rate), disruption in passing lanes leading to steals (#9 steal rate), with the sacrifices of poor rebounding (#155 defensive rebounding rate) and playing the 3-point lottery (#337 3pt attempt deterrence, #73 3pt% allowed).
7-2 junior Paschal Chukwu (pictured above) is the Wendell Carter-like anchor that makes this defense possible. Like Carter, Chukwu is a monster rim protector (13% block rate), plays about two-thirds of the minutes and looks good in glasses and goggles. Unlike Carter, Chukwu is nothing more than low-usage cleanup on offense, but he could create foul problems for Duke with his rebounding activity; his 78% FT attempt rate is #10 in the country.
at VIRGINIA TECH
Monday, February 26, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
34 overall
20 offense
82 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 85, VT 81 (Duke 67%)
In a scheduling quirk, this will be Duke's third rematch of the season that comes less than two weeks after the first matchup. It's safe to assume VT will remember Duke's zone well and be fully prepared to attack it this time around. There's a good chance this will be the first time Duke's improved zone is totally eviscerated.
If the zone holds up here, against a great offense that's well-equipped to shoot over it, then it should be able to hold up against just about any team in the NCAA Tournament. If it blows up miserably, Duke's chances of beating six teams in a row in March will seem much different. We should also know by the time this game tips off whether Bagley will ever play another game for Duke.
NORTH CAROLINA
Saturday, March 3, 8:15pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
7 overall
6 offense
31 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 89, UNC 82 (Duke 73%)
As has been discussed here in previous seasons, the final regular season game between Duke and UNC has had incredible predictive value on how each team performs in the NCAA Tournament.
2017
Winner: UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in 2nd round
2016
UNC
UNC lost in title game
Duke lost in S16
2015
Duke
Duke won title
UNC lost in S16
2014
Duke
Duke lost in R1
UNC lost in R2
2013
Duke
Duke lost in E8
UNC lost in R2
2012
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in R1
2011
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in S16
2010
Duke
Duke won title
UNC to NIT
2009
UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in S16
2008
UNC
UNC lost in F4
Duke lost in R2
2007
UNC
UNC lost in E8
Duke lost in R1
2006
UNC
UNC lost in R2
Duke lost in S16
2005
UNC
UNC won title
Duke lost in S16
2004
Duke
Duke lost in F4
UNC lost in R2
Since 2004, which covers the last 14 seasons, the loser of this game has never advanced past the Sweet Sixteen. In 8 of 14, the loser's season has ended in the 2nd round or sooner. On the other hand, in 12 of 14, the winner has reached at least the Elite Eight. In 8 of 14, the winner has reached at least the Final Four.
Believing in historical performance to project future results is not entirely rational. However, it's difficult to see this trend over 14 years and not believe this game is important for reasons beyond the obvious. If Duke gets swept, their fate may be sealed as yet another underachieving freshman-filled team that will get outworked and outplayed by an underdog in the Tournament. If Duke wins, they will appear to be well-positioned to make a deep run.
At #3 on Kenpom, this would be the highest ranked Duke team entering the Tournament since 2011. With a new defense in place that looks like it actually works, it's easier to believe in this team. They must win this game, though.
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