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A disgraced Duke team looks to redeem itself in a marquee tournament celebrating Phil Knight's 80th birthday. Then, it's off to the house Bob Knight built for the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Here's what little we know about the next five games:
FURMAN
Monday, November 20, 7:00pm ET, WatchESPN
Phil Knight Invitational
Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
134 overall
124 offense
163 defense
Kenpom projected score: Duke 88, Furman 68 (Duke 96%)
This game is technically part of the Phil Knight Invitational, also known as "PK80" (by nobody), though it will be played at Duke, and Duke will move on even with a loss. Duke probably won't lose this one.
Furman is similar to Elon and shoots very well.
Furman has already beaten Elon this season by 9 points at home, and the two teams are similar in overall quality and general strengths and weaknesses. Like Elon, Furman is old and possibly wise, with a starting lineup of 3 seniors and 2 juniors. Also like Elon, Furman should be expected to take lots of 3s and make a good percentage of them. Last season, Furman was #46 in 3pt% and #36 in 2pt%, so they were great at making shots and they probably took smart shots. This led to having the #27 eFG%, but fortunately for Duke, this is the only thing Furman was good at on offense last season. They turned it over, didn't get offensive rebounds and didn't get to the line.
Furman is tiny.
Furman's extreme lack of size should be expected to lead to bad things for them in a matchup against this enormous, paint-dominating, still-unbelievable version of Duke. Furman is #336 in the country in average height. They do have 2 6-8 players and 2 6-7 players, but 3 of those guys are apparently being played out of pure desperation, as their numbers this season make Marques Bolden look like Wilt Chamberlain. One of them has an offensive rating of zero. Another has zero total rebounds in 20 minutes against D-I competition.
Devin Sibley is Furman's chucker.
Sibley is Furman's best player and should be the focus of Duke's defensive attention. His numbers last season were very good, given that he was probably the focus of every opponent's attention, albeit against the #177 strength of schedule. 26% usage, 113 rating, 16% assist, 19% turnover, 42% FT rate, 58% 2pt, 45% 3pt, 75% FT. A halfway decent defense should be able to make his numbers look much worse. The question remains as to whether Duke will be playing halfway decent defense this season. In Furman's most recent game, Butler (#55 defense) beat them by 17 at home and held Sibley to 11 points on 8 shots in 24 minutes, along with forcing Sibley into 4 turnovers.
PORTLAND STATE
Thursday, November 23, 4:30pm ET, ESPN
Phil Knight Invitational
Portland, Oregon
Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
227 overall
177 offense
273 defense
Kenpom projected score: Duke 93, Portland State 73 (Duke 97%)
This is the opening game for Duke in the bracket portion of the tournament. Some games, including this one, will take place in Veteran's Memorial Coliseum, which is relatively small and old. The Coliseum is currently the home of the Portland Winterhawks of the Western Hockey League. Other games, including the semi-finals and finals, will take place in the Moda Center (still known by most basketball fans as the Rose Garden).
This is a good opportunity for Duke to score 100 points.
Portland State plays extremely fast, with the #19 adjusted tempo last season and the #14 adjusted tempo this season. Portland State also plays extremely bad defense, with the #295 defense last season and the #273 defense this season. Their new coach is not expected to revolutionize what has been happening on the court. If Duke is going to fully shame a team this season by breaking the 100-point barrier, this would be as good a chance as any.
No one cares about this game.
This could have been a worrisome game for Duke fans, with a high likelihood of Duke sleepwalking through it after a cross-country flight to play on Thanksgiving. However, Duke can't play much worse than they did against Southern, and it seems less likely for Duke to put in a disgraceful effort after getting the Southern abomination out of their system. This is as far as any fan should be willing to go to analyze this game.
TEXAS or BUTLER
Friday, November 24, 5:30pm ET, ESPN (assuming Duke beats Portland State)
Phil Knight Invitational
Portland, Oregon
Texas Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
32 overall
67 offense
12 defense
Butler Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
49 overall
41 offense
56 defense
Texas vs. Butler - Kenpom projected score: Texas 74, Butler 72 (Texas 58%)
In an effort to avoid wasting time looking at teams Duke may not even play this season, let's just look at the stats of projected top 5 pick Mohamed Bamba through 42 total minutes against terrible competition:
127 offensive rating
27% usage rate
67% true shooting
15% offensive rebounding
30% defensive rebounding
24% block rate
47% FT rate
63% FT (5-8)
83% 2pt (10-12)
20% 3pt (1-5)
One advantage to note for Duke is that this semi-final game will be on the back end of a back-to-back for both teams, and Duke should be able to rest its key players more in its first game than Texas or Butler. Duke will also have a bit more time to recuperate from playing in the earlier time slot.
FLORIDA or GONZAGA or STANFORD or OHIO STATE
Sunday, November 26, 10:30pm ET, ESPN (assuming all goes well for Duke)
Phil Knight Invitational
Portland, Oregon
Florida Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
7 overall
13 offense
4 defense
Stanford Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
69 overall
90 offense
54 defense
Florida vs. Stanford - Kenpom projected score: Florida 81, Stanford 70 (Florida 83%)
Gonzaga Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
21 overall
21 offense
26 defense
Ohio State Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
73 overall
77 offense
80 defense
Gonzaga vs. Ohio State - Kenpom projected score: Gonzaga 80, Ohio State 72 (Gonzaga 76%)
Duke vs. Florida would be the best matchup for casual fans and TV ratings. The obvious benefit of that matchup to Duke would be further strengthening their status as a top team this season, if they can manage to win, along with simply having one additional game of experience against top level competition.
Gonzaga may be the more appealing potential opponent to root for as a Duke fan, since they're not quite as good as Florida but they're still expected to do well enough this season to be viewed as a very high quality opponent for Duke.
Duke falling into the loser's bracket and playing either Stanford or Ohio State would be somewhat of a disaster, and not just because it would mean Duke will have lost to a poor or mediocre opponent along the way. Either Stanford or Ohio State presents a high-risk, low reward game for Duke. Duke has very little to gain by adding one more mediocre power conference win to their resume on top of all the mediocre ACC teams they will play this season, and there's a realistic chance of Duke losing. Duke running into Stanford or Ohio State in the winner's bracket would not be too disappointing, but not a great result from participating in this glorified birthday party.
at INDIANA
Wednesday, November 29, 9:30pm ET, ESPN
ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Bloomington, Indiana
Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
89 overall
64 offense
188 defense
Kenpom projected score: Duke 85, Indiana 76 (Duke 81%)
The Archie Miller era at Indiana is not off to an optimal start. Indiana lost by 21 points in its season opener to #185 Indiana State at home, beat #336 Howard by 9 at home, and then put together their first respectable performance at #26 Seton Hall, only losing by 8. They have 3 cupcakes upcoming, before playing Duke.
Nonetheless, this is a realistically loseable game for Duke, as Duke has notoriously struggled in their first true road game of the season. The usual first-true-road-game loss was avoided during the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, and then Duke reverted back to its old woes last season, getting stomped at Virginia Tech in a game that never felt winnable after the first few minutes.
It's difficult to draw any conclusions from Indiana's 3 games so far this season or carry anything over from Indiana's prior season, since they had so much high-end roster turnover along with the change in head coach. OG Anunoby and Thomas Bryant left for the NBA and James Blackmon left for the G League. Indiana's freshman class is underwhelming, with only one top 100 recruit, as should be expected after a coaching change.
Things will get better for Indiana, perhaps with a win over Duke on national TV in front of a rabid crowd serving as the catalyst. For now, they don't have typical Indiana talent and this would be an embarrassing loss for Duke.
Here's what little we know about the next five games:
FURMAN
Monday, November 20, 7:00pm ET, WatchESPN
Phil Knight Invitational
Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
134 overall
124 offense
163 defense
Kenpom projected score: Duke 88, Furman 68 (Duke 96%)
This game is technically part of the Phil Knight Invitational, also known as "PK80" (by nobody), though it will be played at Duke, and Duke will move on even with a loss. Duke probably won't lose this one.
Furman is similar to Elon and shoots very well.
Furman has already beaten Elon this season by 9 points at home, and the two teams are similar in overall quality and general strengths and weaknesses. Like Elon, Furman is old and possibly wise, with a starting lineup of 3 seniors and 2 juniors. Also like Elon, Furman should be expected to take lots of 3s and make a good percentage of them. Last season, Furman was #46 in 3pt% and #36 in 2pt%, so they were great at making shots and they probably took smart shots. This led to having the #27 eFG%, but fortunately for Duke, this is the only thing Furman was good at on offense last season. They turned it over, didn't get offensive rebounds and didn't get to the line.
Furman is tiny.
Furman's extreme lack of size should be expected to lead to bad things for them in a matchup against this enormous, paint-dominating, still-unbelievable version of Duke. Furman is #336 in the country in average height. They do have 2 6-8 players and 2 6-7 players, but 3 of those guys are apparently being played out of pure desperation, as their numbers this season make Marques Bolden look like Wilt Chamberlain. One of them has an offensive rating of zero. Another has zero total rebounds in 20 minutes against D-I competition.
Devin Sibley is Furman's chucker.
Sibley is Furman's best player and should be the focus of Duke's defensive attention. His numbers last season were very good, given that he was probably the focus of every opponent's attention, albeit against the #177 strength of schedule. 26% usage, 113 rating, 16% assist, 19% turnover, 42% FT rate, 58% 2pt, 45% 3pt, 75% FT. A halfway decent defense should be able to make his numbers look much worse. The question remains as to whether Duke will be playing halfway decent defense this season. In Furman's most recent game, Butler (#55 defense) beat them by 17 at home and held Sibley to 11 points on 8 shots in 24 minutes, along with forcing Sibley into 4 turnovers.
PORTLAND STATE
Thursday, November 23, 4:30pm ET, ESPN
Phil Knight Invitational
Portland, Oregon
Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
227 overall
177 offense
273 defense
Kenpom projected score: Duke 93, Portland State 73 (Duke 97%)
This is the opening game for Duke in the bracket portion of the tournament. Some games, including this one, will take place in Veteran's Memorial Coliseum, which is relatively small and old. The Coliseum is currently the home of the Portland Winterhawks of the Western Hockey League. Other games, including the semi-finals and finals, will take place in the Moda Center (still known by most basketball fans as the Rose Garden).
This is a good opportunity for Duke to score 100 points.
Portland State plays extremely fast, with the #19 adjusted tempo last season and the #14 adjusted tempo this season. Portland State also plays extremely bad defense, with the #295 defense last season and the #273 defense this season. Their new coach is not expected to revolutionize what has been happening on the court. If Duke is going to fully shame a team this season by breaking the 100-point barrier, this would be as good a chance as any.
No one cares about this game.
This could have been a worrisome game for Duke fans, with a high likelihood of Duke sleepwalking through it after a cross-country flight to play on Thanksgiving. However, Duke can't play much worse than they did against Southern, and it seems less likely for Duke to put in a disgraceful effort after getting the Southern abomination out of their system. This is as far as any fan should be willing to go to analyze this game.
TEXAS or BUTLER
Friday, November 24, 5:30pm ET, ESPN (assuming Duke beats Portland State)
Phil Knight Invitational
Portland, Oregon
Texas Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
32 overall
67 offense
12 defense
Butler Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
49 overall
41 offense
56 defense
Texas vs. Butler - Kenpom projected score: Texas 74, Butler 72 (Texas 58%)
In an effort to avoid wasting time looking at teams Duke may not even play this season, let's just look at the stats of projected top 5 pick Mohamed Bamba through 42 total minutes against terrible competition:
127 offensive rating
27% usage rate
67% true shooting
15% offensive rebounding
30% defensive rebounding
24% block rate
47% FT rate
63% FT (5-8)
83% 2pt (10-12)
20% 3pt (1-5)
One advantage to note for Duke is that this semi-final game will be on the back end of a back-to-back for both teams, and Duke should be able to rest its key players more in its first game than Texas or Butler. Duke will also have a bit more time to recuperate from playing in the earlier time slot.
FLORIDA or GONZAGA or STANFORD or OHIO STATE
Sunday, November 26, 10:30pm ET, ESPN (assuming all goes well for Duke)
Phil Knight Invitational
Portland, Oregon
Florida Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
7 overall
13 offense
4 defense
Stanford Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
69 overall
90 offense
54 defense
Florida vs. Stanford - Kenpom projected score: Florida 81, Stanford 70 (Florida 83%)
Gonzaga Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
21 overall
21 offense
26 defense
Ohio State Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
73 overall
77 offense
80 defense
Gonzaga vs. Ohio State - Kenpom projected score: Gonzaga 80, Ohio State 72 (Gonzaga 76%)
Duke vs. Florida would be the best matchup for casual fans and TV ratings. The obvious benefit of that matchup to Duke would be further strengthening their status as a top team this season, if they can manage to win, along with simply having one additional game of experience against top level competition.
Gonzaga may be the more appealing potential opponent to root for as a Duke fan, since they're not quite as good as Florida but they're still expected to do well enough this season to be viewed as a very high quality opponent for Duke.
Duke falling into the loser's bracket and playing either Stanford or Ohio State would be somewhat of a disaster, and not just because it would mean Duke will have lost to a poor or mediocre opponent along the way. Either Stanford or Ohio State presents a high-risk, low reward game for Duke. Duke has very little to gain by adding one more mediocre power conference win to their resume on top of all the mediocre ACC teams they will play this season, and there's a realistic chance of Duke losing. Duke running into Stanford or Ohio State in the winner's bracket would not be too disappointing, but not a great result from participating in this glorified birthday party.
at INDIANA
Wednesday, November 29, 9:30pm ET, ESPN
ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Bloomington, Indiana
Kenpom rankings as of the time of this post:
89 overall
64 offense
188 defense
Kenpom projected score: Duke 85, Indiana 76 (Duke 81%)
The Archie Miller era at Indiana is not off to an optimal start. Indiana lost by 21 points in its season opener to #185 Indiana State at home, beat #336 Howard by 9 at home, and then put together their first respectable performance at #26 Seton Hall, only losing by 8. They have 3 cupcakes upcoming, before playing Duke.
Nonetheless, this is a realistically loseable game for Duke, as Duke has notoriously struggled in their first true road game of the season. The usual first-true-road-game loss was avoided during the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, and then Duke reverted back to its old woes last season, getting stomped at Virginia Tech in a game that never felt winnable after the first few minutes.
It's difficult to draw any conclusions from Indiana's 3 games so far this season or carry anything over from Indiana's prior season, since they had so much high-end roster turnover along with the change in head coach. OG Anunoby and Thomas Bryant left for the NBA and James Blackmon left for the G League. Indiana's freshman class is underwhelming, with only one top 100 recruit, as should be expected after a coaching change.
Things will get better for Indiana, perhaps with a win over Duke on national TV in front of a rabid crowd serving as the catalyst. For now, they don't have typical Indiana talent and this would be an embarrassing loss for Duke.
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