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Duke Basketball 2017-2018

I would like to see a rotation of big men like the staff used in 2010. Bagley & Carter to start, Bolden & Javin to come in for meaningful minutes like the brothers Plumlee did. Vrank can get spot minutes or take someone's corner depending on effectiveness.

A guy can dream.
Agree, Would love to see something like:

Bagley 30/DeL 10
Carter 25/Bolden 15
 
I keep seeing the roster projections with Bolden ahead of JMD and Vrank and I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. When you examine the stats, particularly the advanced stats, there is almost no statistical reason to play Bolden ahead of either Vrank or JMD.

The only stat Bolden is better at that Vrank is block%, 4.2 to 3.7, which is virtually the same. Vrank is a better shooter, better rebounder, better passer, better defensive player (according to both win shares and DBPM) while playing only 56 fewer minutes than Bolden. Vrank's BPM was 7.0 while Bolden was negative 0.1, joining Besser, Pags and Robinson as the only net negative Duke basketball players.

Varank's PER was 3x's Bolden's.

Javin played in only 86 fucking minutes last year (Bolden 157) but still had more win shares, a BPM of 5.4, was a better shooter, rebounder, better steal rates and block rates. Javin's one weakness was he turned the ball over a ton.

Javin's PER was nearly double Bolden's.

Bolden is a close to unplayable as it gets.
 
Oh, I totally agree. It just makes no sense from an actual basketball perspective.
 
Those jerseys are sick as fuck, though. Like the throwbacks from the past two seasons, but the lettering and cut give them even more of a retro vibe.

I had thought for the past 25 years or so that the early 90s Duke jerseys were my favorites, but these may just look better. I like the rounded neck more than the v-neck-type shit our jerseys had back then.
 
I would like to see a rotation of big men like the staff used in 2010. Bagley & Carter to start, Bolden & Javin to come in for meaningful minutes like the brothers Plumlee did. Vrank can get spot minutes or take someone's corner depending on effectiveness.

A guy can dream.
Agree, Would love to see something like:

Bagley 30/DeL 10
Carter 25/Bolden 15

Give DeLaurier 15 and Bolden 10 and I would agree.
 
Personally, I'd rather DeL get the bulk of the bench minutes but I agree with Rome. I think K will play Bolden no matter what this year unless he's just atrocious. But (again) all reports are that he made big strides this offseason. But I just like DeL's flexibility in the lineup and his speed/athleticism. In a big lineup you could have Duval, Allen, Bagley, Del, Carter and probably switch everything 1-4 and be in pretty good shape.
 
Agree, Would love to see something like:

Bagley 30/DeL 10
Carter 25/Bolden 15

I can't fathom Carter only getting 25 mpg; I expect him to be our best overall player. I'd start with him at 32 minutes.
I think relying some on the big lineup will make the minutes work better all around, and there should be at least 15 minutes to spare at SF (for Bagley, I'd guess), even if Trent plays 25 there plus another 10 backing up Duval and Grayson.

Rowe has also said that he expects Vrankovic to be the 8th man, so that means more big time.
 
I know this pops up a lot - but realistically. We all know K plays 6/7 players. I just don't know who would be the 7th.

PG - Duval
SG - Grayson
SF - Trent Jr.
PF - Bagley
C - Carter

Reserves:
-Bolden

- who will be the 7th? Hopefully Javin, but our shooting is down. Wonder if Tucker or White will be able to contribute..

Curious thoughts on rotation. Really for the 7th man, if there will be one.
 
Agree, Would love to see something like:

Bagley 30/DeL 10
Carter 25/Bolden 15

I can't fathom Carter only getting 25 mpg; I expect him to be our best overall player. I'd start with him at 32 minutes.
I think relying some on the big lineup will make the minutes work better all around, and there should be at least 15 minutes to spare at SF (for Bagley, I'd guess), even if Trent plays 25 there plus another 10 backing up Duval and Grayson.

Rowe has also said that he expects Vrankovic to be the 8th man, so that means more big time.

Interesting. Personally I'd have DeLaurier before Vrank in the rotation. I think Vrank deserves to play, but DeLaurier seems like he'll be able to provide more versatility, which in a lineup with 800 big men is badly needed.

I also think Tucker/White/O'Connell is going to have to play some at SF. You can't expect three guards, two of them freshmen, to play 40 minutes each. My money would be on Tucker, but none of them would surprise me.
 
As for the seven-man rotation, K has occasionally gone with eight. In fact, in both our most recent title years we had a pretty set eight-man rotation. Granted, Dawkins was used pretty sparingly in 2010 and K didn't really start playing Allen until late in 2015. There are other years that are better examples of eight guys really playing. That's actually the perfect level of depth in my mind. A balance between K at his most stingy and Roy.
 
I think we're going to get a semi 8 man rotation this season. I am expecting the starting line-up to be Duval-Allen-Trent Jr-Bagley-Carter with the bench guys being Bolden, DeLaurier, and IMO either Jack White or Tucker to be like a semi- 8th man. It's been floated around but to help with the bench, I really expect us to go big (really big) at times with Bagley at the 3, Carter Jr at the 4, and either Bolden or DeLaurier at the 5. This gets one of the guards rest.
 
Rowe has also said that he expects Vrankovic to be the 8th man, so that means more big time.

Interesting. Personally I'd have DeLaurier before Vrank in the rotation. I think Vrank deserves to play, but DeLaurier seems like he'll be able to provide more versatility, which in a lineup with 800 big men is badly needed.

I also think Tucker/White/O'Connell is going to have to play some at SF. You can't expect three guards, two of them freshmen, to play 40 minutes each. My money would be on Tucker, but none of them would surprise me.

Sorry if my post was confusing, but I meant Vrank as the next guy off the bench after Trent and Javin.

* - making the assumption that the "big" lineup wins out at least to start, and Bagley starts as the nominal SF.
 
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As for the seven-man rotation, K has occasionally gone with eight. In fact, in both our most recent title years we had a pretty set eight-man rotation. Granted, Dawkins was used pretty sparingly in 2010 and K didn't really start playing Allen until late in 2015. There are other years that are better examples of eight guys really playing. That's actually the perfect level of depth in my mind. A balance between K at his most stingy and Roy.

I think you're totally right that 8 is the norm, even if in some years that 8th guy doesn't get into 2 or 3 games, or ends up averaging 8 minutes instead of 10.

2015 is a great example of 8-man; Allen's minutes went up went Sulaimon was kicked off the team.
 
I agree that someone of White/Tucker/O'Connell will be seeing some minutes. I can honestly see a lineup where White plays the 4 and Tucker plays the 3 because I just can't see K playing all that depth Duke has at the 4/5 spots. I fully expect Allen and Duval to play until exhaustion, 32-35 MPG each, with Trent's minutes almost entirely depending on K's leash/trust, and Carter and Bagley to get away with murder and do whatever they want. At least 30 minutes for both of them.

That leaves about 23 minutes for Trent, Vrank, Javin, White, Tucker.

The depth will rot on the bench.
 
As for the seven-man rotation, K has occasionally gone with eight. In fact, in both our most recent title years we had a pretty set eight-man rotation. Granted, Dawkins was used pretty sparingly in 2010 and K didn't really start playing Allen until late in 2015. There are other years that are better examples of eight guys really playing. That's actually the perfect level of depth in my mind. A balance between K at his most stingy and Roy.

Yes, although before Allen started playing Sulaimon was in the rotation. So I think for most of that year, they had a real 8 man rotation.
 
I think the entire season hinges on Grayson's ability to lead the team a la Quinn in 2015, regardless of the freshmen's talent. We have 2 players who have more than 1 year of experience on the team, and one (Vrank) might not get much time on the court. This is a horse that is beaten to death, but I think it's fair: Strong on-court leadership is a difference maker in college, and the trend is clear from the last 8 championship teams in the recent one-and-done era (for time's sake, I'm starting in 2010, but could be argued that it began a few years before that) that you need both elite talent and veteran leadership/experience, which I am using # of scholarship upperclassmen as a proxy for.

Team / # of scholarship upperclassmen
2017 - UNC, 7
2016 - Nova, 6
2015 - Duke, 3
2014 - Uconn, 6
2013 - U of L, 8
2012 - UK, 4
2011 - Uconn, 4
2010 - Duke, 5

Obviously this is super quick/rough analysis, and there are better ways to do it (% of minutes played by upperclassmen, % of usage, etc.) but I will leave that to SMTTEM and other people who are better at this sort of analysis. Nonetheless, all of these teams had 3+ scholarship uppeclassmen on the team, and the teams with the fewest upperclassmen had generational levels of elite talent (Duke in 2015, UK in 2012, 2011 was a weird year but Uconn had Kemba who had enough leadership/intangibles for 2-3 players), and Duke's #s are low but as are weighted up based on share of scholarship players.

I can only hope we break this trend...

*Edited for spelling
 
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Great post. Eliminating reasons for ESPN et al. to create a spectacle around Grayson would be the 1st step of leadership, followed by strong play of course.

He needs to have broad shoulders to make this happen.
 
Obviously this is super quick/rough analysis, and there are better ways to do it (% of minutes played by upperclassmen, % of usage, etc.) but I will leave that to SMTTEM and other people who are better at this sort of analysis. Nonetheless, all of these teams had 3+ scholarship uppeclassmen on the team, and the teams with the fewest upperclassmen had generational levels of elite talent (Duke in 2015, UK in 2012, 2011 was a weird year but Uconn had Kemba who had enough leadership/intangibles for 2-3 players), and Duke's #s are low but as are weighted up based on share of scholarship players.

I can only hope we break this trend...

*Edited for spelling

I love our 2015 team, don't get me wrong, but I don't know by what metric they had "generational levels of elite talent." They had a number of good college players who played their roles well.
 

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