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Duke Basketball 2017-2018

I don't know what to do with Duval. I'm sure the coaches have spent their entire working lives the past few months trying to figure it out, and if there were a better solution, they would be doing it by now. They seem to have settled on having him be a neutered weakside non-entity who then drives or takes a wide open 3 with the extra space created by Allen being the main creator on the other side of the court, and I doubt there are any much better options for a guard who can't make 3s, can't make FTs, can't make midrange jumpers and turns it over a lot.

I don't really see how this weird Duval is any better than having O'Connell stand out there waiting for an open 3, but there are recruiting dynamics in play when you basically give up trying anything with a top 10 recruit who was a projected lottery pick to begin the season. I don't think giving up like that by limiting his playing time is an option. "If you pick Duke, they won't help you get better. You become Derryck Thornton or Trevon Duval. They've had one ELITE point guard in the past 7 years."
 
I wouldn't worry about history of zone teams too much, this team is unlike any most others zone teams who zone because they are either small or lack the athletes to guard m2m, and if they have the athletes they are athlete's who can't shoot.

This team has size, has athletes, and can shoot.
 
I'd have ridden with a freewheeling, high-mistake Duval in a fast pace and hoped he figured something out. Our offense was still #1 or #2 even if he didn't. The real issue was defense, and maybe the zone will solve that.

But if you're going to change the pace and let Allen initiate the offense just to get slightly more efficient (while perhaps limiting your upside, in my view), then I would go all the way in and not played Duval much. We've already lined up the 2018 class. In 2019 there are so many moving parts (K's age, the possible end of OAD) that I don't think it's worth worrying about whether AAU circles will still be talking about Trevon's benching.
 
Villanova just won a title in 2016 playing plenty of zone defense. I think most people don't realize this.


That was about a week before Villanova won the title.

There were growing pains in the early going, but the zone has played an increasingly significant role as the season has progressed, reaching its peak Saturday in a 64-59 win over Kansas that sent the Wildcats to the Final Four.

“I can be a hardhead sometimes,” Wright admitted.

And yes, he’s starting to like the zone more after being “a little bit squeamish” at the start of the season.

“We put it in a couple of times and it worked,” he said. “Then when it doesn’t work, you don’t give up on it. Now it’s a good part of our system and I think our players have confidence in it. I do because I still feel we play aggressively.

“This probably should have happened a couple of years ago.”

We struggled at the beginning of the season because we never played zone before,” Arcidiacono said. “But I think just the experience of playing it has really helped us."

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/coll...cle_3fd81cbf-43b3-5c9d-a65b-dd5ce5161891.html
 
I'd have ridden with a freewheeling, high-mistake Duval in a fast pace and hoped he figured something out. Our offense was still #1 or #2 even if he didn't. The real issue was defense, and maybe the zone will solve that.

But if you're going to change the pace and let Allen initiate the offense just to get slightly more efficient (while perhaps limiting your upside, in my view), then I would go all the way in and not played Duval much. We've already lined up the 2018 class. In 2019 there are so many moving parts (K's age, the possible end of OAD) that I don't think it's worth worrying about whether AAU circles will still be talking about Trevon's benching.

Definitely agree fully with your point about limiting Duval's PT to some extent (I'd still play him 15 minutes or so, but not start him. I think he might do better if his court time were more in sync with Javin, Marques than paired with our four high-usage scorers, anyway).

I'd also add that at this point I'm not at all worried about the effect of one or even two OAD players not going after one year. If there's one thing K's proven well, it's that our program can showcase OAD players and get them drafted high. Sample size is large enough that Duval would be a blip and an outlier.
 
Kansas and Arizona have managed to keep landing high-level prospects despite some notable guys staying longer than projected or not panning out.
 
For completeness and in case anyone wants a good laugh, here are all of Duval's performances plotted by usage and rating:

KNt9yVk.png


Like a man pissing. That 16 offensive rating on 17% usage in the lower left is not a mistake. He threw that one up at Wake Forest.

Again, there's not too much that can be read into this from a predictive standpoint, due to stats problems. However, it is a fact that when Duval's usage has been over 25% in any game, his best rating was 115 at Miami (32% usage), and his rating has been 100 or lower in 6 out of the 8 games. When Duval's usage has been 25% or lower, he has cracked a 120 rating in 10 out of the 18 games.

Based on his performances to date, when Duval's usage is high (>25%), you know with some certainty that he's going to drag Duke's efficiency down. When Duval's usage is low, you have no idea what's going to happen, but there's a decent chance he puts up the kind of efficiency that is in line with the rest of the offense.
 
What was the egregious shit show of a game where the staff thought it would be good to play him at a 45% usage level?
 
SM--stats prove offense better with Allen initiating more of the offense.

CMON-- IMO we can't win playing statistically better basketball.
How many teams have in the last 20 years have won a title primarily playing zone?
 
CMON-- IMO we can't win playing statistically better basketball.[/QUOTE]
How many teams have in the last 20 years have won a title primarily playing zone?[/QUOTE]

Syracuse for sure. Sounds like possibly 2016 Nova but not sure if it was "primarily". I actually think pre-2014, before they started to really enforce the no hand-checking rules, etc., has to be looked at in a somewhat different light than post 2014. Maybe it's just the way K's team play M2M, but it does seem like given that you can't do that anymore, the advantage that M2M had over zone would have been narrowed quite a bit.
 
SM--stats prove offense better with Allen initiating more of the offense.

CMON-- IMO we can't win playing statistically better basketball.
How many teams have in the last 20 years have won a title primarily playing zone?


If we're just limiting your comment to zone, which I wasn't, then there is a sample size issue. There's just not that many teams that play zone. However, there are teams that use zone effectively, particularly as a press. Under Pitino, Louisville used a zone press at times (and won a title) and they did play half court zone as well. UNC plays a rare zone trap to catch people napping. John Beilein played tons of zone for very tough WVa teams, and uses zone at Michigan. The 1-3-1 they play is nasty.

Cuse won a title playing only zone, but that has to be close to your 20 year window. As SM posted earlier., Nove zones it's way to a title only 2 years ago.

My post is about data and stats, however. The stats indicate:
1, Duke is better with Allen at high usage and Duval at low usage, and
2. Duke is better as a zone team.

So why would you place less value on the data that reflects reality, and more value on your opinion which is contradicted by the data?
 
Getting back to our favorite topic, fill in the blank: out of 80 ACC players with at least 500 minutes, Duval ranks __ in defensive rebounding percentage.
 

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