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Duke Coaching

I watched one from Milton, with his coach and a trainer who I assume will be the equivalent of Derryck Thornton's "uncle". And then I watched a couple where he went back and forth from bushy-haired to leukemia patient hair. I feel somewhat better about his potential contributions to the program than, say, Brennan Besser's.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Yeah so the main point of this whole parallel luck universe nonsense is not to find one equal example of bad luck for every example of good luck, or vice versa, but to consider that the six seasons starting with 2012 really haven't been good. The best team he had, by far, in this twilight of his career was 2015. He cashed that team in for a title, basically with magic. Magic defense at the end. Magic Tyus whenever he felt like it. Magic Grayson at the most clutch of times. Magic foul trouble for Okafor. Magic Sulaimon sexual assault. Magic Wisconsin doing us the greatest favor. It just hasn't been good lately, and that stroke of luck in 2015 shouldn't distract anyone from this as much as it does.
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Yeah, all that is true, except that I'd say that the 2013 team was actually nearly as good as the 2015 team. Had to deal with more injury problems. Still finished 30-6, #6 in KenPom, and actually beat two Top-15 KenPom teams in the NCAAs before running into Pitino's best Louisville squad. Not sure our 2015 team beats that team either.
 
The 13 team would've played and lost to Louisville at some point, but the needless loss to Maryland ensured that we wouldn't even get a Final Four out of that team. Doesn't really qualify as bad luck, but still.
 
I included them as a contender. That's 2 in 6 years, which is probably top ten in the country but then again, this is in the context of K getting to handpick what recruits he brings into the program.

Other coaches in that 6 year span:

Roy: 3 contending seasons
Cal: 4 contending seasons
Self: 2 contending seasons, another 3 fringe ones though
Izzo: 2 contending seasons
Wright: 3 contending seasons
Few: 2 contending seasons
Pitino: 3 contending seasons



So with the 1.5-2 in that span, I guess it's not too out of the norm, but then again besides Cal none of those guys are getting the caliber of recruiting classes we are. It will be interesting (and possibly maddening) to see if by 2020 if those other coaches have leapfrogged K.
 
DurhamSon said:
So with the 1.5-2 in that span, I guess it's not too out of the norm, but then again besides Cal none of those guys are getting the caliber of recruiting classes we are. It will be interesting (and possibly maddening) to see if by 2020 if those other coaches have leapfrogged K.
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Definitely possible. Although I remember stressing a decade ago about Thad Matta and Ben Howland having eclipsed K, so shit happens.
 
As an aside, I'm not convinced that too many OADs = doom. This year, our second-half six including a RS-SR, SR, JR, and and SO, and I'd argue that the remaining two frosh were our most consistent 2-way players in the postseason. For all the talk of our talent, we only had one guy who seems to safely be a first-round pick.

If you're getting 3-4 elite, can't-miss guys in a class like Cal does, that seems to work out as well as any other strategy, as evidenced by his 4 contending teams as per the Dson Matrix (TM). It's also what won us the 2015 title - our 3 top 10 guys all panned out as expected, and our other guy was Grayson freaking Allen. We talk about that team as if it had the perfect mix of veterans and young guys - and yeah, Quinn Cook played a huge role - but people tend to forget that freshmen scored all but EIGHT (!) of our points in the championship game.

Long-term pieces are important for leadership and continuity, and if you can get high-end talent to stick around, all the better. However, I think it's worth noting that we're 1 for 1 when we've actually succeeded in stockpiling an elite collection of OADs. Talent tends to rise in March.
 
Pantone287 said:
As an aside, I'm not convinced that too many OADs = doom. This year, our second-half six including a RS-SR, SR, JR, and and SO, and I'd argue that the remaining two frosh were our most consistent 2-way players in the postseason. For all the talk of our talent, we only had one guy who seems to safely be a first-round pick.

If you're getting 3-4 elite, can't-miss guys in a class like Cal does, that seems to work out as well as any other strategy, as evidenced by his 4 contending teams as per the Dson Matrix (TM). It's also what won us the 2015 title - our 3 top 10 guys all panned out as expected, and our other guy was Grayson freaking Allen. We talk about that team as if it had the perfect mix of veterans and young guys - and yeah, Quinn Cook played a huge role - but people tend to forget that freshmen scored all but EIGHT (!) of our points in the championship game.

Long-term pieces are important for leadership and continuity, and if you can get high-end talent to stick around, all the better. However, I think it's worth noting that we're 1 for 1 when we've actually succeeded in stockpiling an elite collection of OADs. Talent tends to rise in March.
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Agree that you generally need that blend of solid veterans and elite OADs to achieve consistence, but your OADs need to be able to cover the particular needs of that year's team. We got the first part right (outside of Grayson's meltdown moments), but we didn't get the right personnel to take care of the second part. Despite what K said early in the season, point guards are needed. That 2015 championship team often had two of them on the floor at the same time, 2001 team had Williams and Duhon. Sure, we won it without a PG in 2010, but I think that season was a unicorn, and we were blessed with an accommodating bracket. Could Scheyer have gotten us past SC this year? I seriously doubt it.
 
Obviously, a pg would have helped tremendously vs. SC, but I think the notion that this team's NC hopes actually died in 11/15 (and maybe 11/16) is more accurate. We lost/struggled in many more games this year, IMO, because we lacked the theoretical God-like rim protector/rebounder that was a healthy Giles. Even in glimpses, it is clear the guy's hands are freakishly magnetic when it comes to grabbing the ball, and he was all over the court defending in the U-17s. And even with two sketchy knees, his athleticism is off the fucking charts. His inability to get in sync with the team until at least January killed us. We were too far behind at that point (and he was still shaky) to proceed through trial and error. I do wish K had played him and Amile more together.

Amile is a warrior, and got almost everything out of his talent, but Giles had the Garnett gene. If his legs stay healthy, I'd bet he is an all-star in the next decade. And it will break our hearts.
 
deeyoukayeee said:
Obviously, a pg would have helped tremendously vs. SC, but I think the notion that this team's NC hopes actually died in 11/15 (and maybe 11/16) is more accurate. We lost/struggled in many more games this year, IMO, because we lacked the theoretical God-like rim protector/rebounder that was a healthy Giles. Even in glimpses, it is clear the guy's hands are freakishly magnetic when it comes to grabbing the ball, and he was all over the court defending in the U-17s. And even with two sketchy knees, his athleticism is off the fucking charts. His inability to get in sync with the team until at least January killed us. We were too far behind at that point (and he was still shaky) to proceed through trial and error. I do wish K had played him and Amile more together.

Amile is a warrior, and got almost everything out of his talent, but Giles had the Garnett gene. If his legs stay healthy, I'd bet he is an all-star in the next decade. And it will break our hearts.
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Our 2 best pros both limited by injuries when we had them :(
 
If Coach K had gone pro years back, I think he would have been a failure. The NBA game changes much more quickly and he would have refused to adapt regardless. Plus, he wouldn't have been able to handpick the best players year after year.
 


Asking former players to write things like this as damage control after the worst season. Pathetic.
 
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You know the coaching was bad this season when guys who would've played big minutes are transferring because they know the coaching staff is only going to play 6 guys. If you aren't guaranteed to be a starter, better to jet while you can. Fucking pathetic.
 


#25 composite. Capel's talent evaluation and recruiting are essential to Duke after K is gone, though. No one else could bring gamechangers like Derryck Thornton and Marques Bolden to Duke.
 
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4/4 FT this season. He would rather help his team win and make more money than look good while shooting FTs. Extremely rare.
 
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Because Collins and Fitzgerald are apparently enthusiastic enough about taking on that dynamic, and because they can apparently win games while doing it, spending big to retain them—while including what Phillips described as “cost-prohibitive” buyout provisions—is a sensible bet. “If you are reactive with any of your coaches,” Phillips said, “your coaches are going to be gone.” So then Northwestern is left to hope the shiny new resources afforded to both men dovetail with their ability to coach well, which keeps the victories and the money flowing in. According to Phillips, the athletic department has raised more than $330 million in the last three plus years.

Both coaches insisted they weren’t going anywhere, anyway. Fitzgerald described his family as “owners, not renters,” and by now it’s fairly evident virtually no college job could lure him away from Evanston. Collins may never escape the specter of Duke calling when Mike Krzyzewski calls it quits, but he also has been steadfast in public statements about a commitment to Northwestern. Tuesday was no different. “It was never about being here to go somewhere else,” Collins said. “I came to Northwestern to be the Northwestern coach for a long time.”
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The more I see/hear about it, the clearer it becomes that the plan at Duke is to have Capel fail for 4-5 seasons before Collins rescues his old school like Harbaugh at Michigan after building a great program at Northwestern for a "long time" (10-15 years). Those Capel years will be rough, but we will always have the light at the end of the tunnel to look forward to. I don't think Capel himself expects this to end any differently - he'll absorb the "shadow years" after K, knowing he's bound to fail, while collecting $5 million a year for his troubles, and then he'll move aside amicably and try to sell his recruits on staying for Collins. A good Duke man.
 
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