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Duke Football 2017-2018 Discussion

ZackM

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1 month until the season kicks off. The team gonna be any good this year?
 
I think I'm a bit more bull-ish than Topher on this team, mainly based on the strides that our Offense should have made int he past year. I'm a big Daniel Jones guy, and our skill players on offense should be healthy and good going into the season.

I'm also hoping that the Defense continues to improve from last year, especially the D-Line in year 2 of Coach Albert's tenure. I haven't been invested nearly as much as I have in past years, but I'll try to give my likelihood of wins as per usual:

Likely Wins: NCCU (Sept. 2); @West Point (Nov. 11)
Should Wins: Northwestern (Sept. 9); @UVA (Oct. 7); Georgia Tech (Nov. 18); @Wake Forest (Nov. 25)
Toss-ups: @UNC (Sept. 23); Pitt (Oct. 21); @VaTech (Oct. 28)
Likely Losses: Baylor (Sept. 16); Miami (Fri. Sept. 29); FSU (Oct. 14).

I'm not a fan of our bye week being so late in the season, but I can see why we would want that, as we play two option teams back to back after our bye week. It's important that the team does not get too down during the front half of the season as the schedule is definitely front loaded, with Northwestern, Baylor, UNC, and Miami on four consecutive weeks, followed by a week off at UVA and then meeting FSU. However, if we survive that stretch, then we could build some good momentum like we did in 2013.

I see us at a floor of 6-6, hopefully closer to 8-4 or 9-3, if we get some bounces going our way. Just unfortunate that most of our home games are going to be tough ones
 
The schedule is sooooo tough though. We're recording a season preview podcast tonight so I'll post that here tomorrow
 
Here's last weeks with the Ben Humphreys Interview at the 47:00 mark

 
We were a competent field goal kicker away from 6-6 a year ago (cost us the Wake and VT games), hopefully that area will be improved this year. With better kicking and further improvement from Jones and the defense, I could definitely see a 7 or 8 win season materializing.
 
This team is rising in the right direction if they can stay healthy. OL is a question mark. QB is good, RB's are under sized. Last season was difficult as RB's were not able to pick up a blitz. Receivers are pretty good. Roper has another season as OC and play caller. Offense should be better than last season.

LB's are good. Young but getting better. D-line needs to be better. DB's are pretty good and are strikers. Locking down WR's could be a challenge against taller receivers since the corners are small. But Coach Cut has been recruiting speed and quickness rather than bigger, brawny massed players.

Kicking game was awful last season. This would make a huge difference if that could turn around. Maybe two to three wins difference.

This team could be better with a worse record than last season given the schedule. I believe Duke is closer to a 7-5 than a 5-7 record. They will lose to someone they probably shouldn't and can beat someone they shouldn't. Next season I see them better than this season simply because of returning players at almost every skill position. But at least they compete every single game. I'm excited for the season to start.
 


Not my best podcast but there's just so much unknown about this team as of now
 


Not my best podcast but there's just so much unknown about this team as of now


Thanks for posting this. Really, other than Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington, and/or maybe USC, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, Penn State, and even Oklahoma State trying to get to the final four playoff, anything can happen.
 
This feels like a doorstep team. Hang around 6-6 this year, largely because of a tough schedule, but an actually good team the following year.

That said, I think Cut screwed up the scheduling. This is not 2012 anymore, and while Duke is more talented, the ACC is a much better and deeper conference than it was back then, largely due to better coaching. So we're getting enough tough tests in the conference schedule that we don't need to schedule top tier teams outside of the conference. Scheduling Baylor or Alabama makes sense for a team that would like to bolster its CFP resume. We're nowhere near that level. We should be striving for 9 win seasons and solid bowl games like Sun, Russell Athletic, etc.

I feel that the four non-conference opponents should be two easy ones (NCCU and then the Tulane/Army level is fine) and two mid-tiers that we can generally expect to split with in an average year (Northwestern seems like the right level here even though we can't seem to beat them). We don't need to be playing top 10 teams. Especially as FSU and Clemson are coming up in the rotation.

Otherwise we could be looking at some 5-7 type years with teams that are probably the same or better quality as we were in '13 and '14 when we were winning 9 and 10.
 
This feels like a doorstep team. Hang around 6-6 this year, largely because of a tough schedule, but an actually good team the following year.

That said, I think Cut screwed up the scheduling. This is not 2012 anymore, and while Duke is more talented, the ACC is a much better and deeper conference than it was back then, largely due to better coaching. So we're getting enough tough tests in the conference schedule that we don't need to schedule top tier teams outside of the conference. Scheduling Baylor or Alabama makes sense for a team that would like to bolster its CFP resume. We're nowhere near that level. We should be striving for 9 win seasons and solid bowl games like Sun, Russell Athletic, etc.

I feel that the four non-conference opponents should be two easy ones (NCCU and then the Tulane/Army level is fine) and two mid-tiers that we can generally expect to split with in an average year (Northwestern seems like the right level here even though we can't seem to beat them). We don't need to be playing top 10 teams. Especially as FSU and Clemson are coming up in the rotation.

Otherwise we could be looking at some 5-7 type years with teams that are probably the same or better quality as we were in '13 and '14 when we were winning 9 and 10.

I don't think avoiding great programs is a viable option. If we want Duke to compete in football, we have to schedule tougher opponents. Eventually Duke has to beat somebody they shouldn't have any business beating. Duke had Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel beat and let it go. They had Arizona State beaten and did the same thing with a KO run back costing them the game. If Cut could ever beat a Florida State or Alabama, or just some program of that stature then recruiting becomes so much easier. And he will get a 5-star at some point. Before you say there's no way, remember when Duke had the no-win season and where they are now. Duke is mentioned as a final list of schools all over the place now. Just think what he could do if he starts getting 5-stars.
 
This feels like a doorstep team. Hang around 6-6 this year, largely because of a tough schedule, but an actually good team the following year.

That said, I think Cut screwed up the scheduling. This is not 2012 anymore, and while Duke is more talented, the ACC is a much better and deeper conference than it was back then, largely due to better coaching. So we're getting enough tough tests in the conference schedule that we don't need to schedule top tier teams outside of the conference. Scheduling Baylor or Alabama makes sense for a team that would like to bolster its CFP resume. We're nowhere near that level. We should be striving for 9 win seasons and solid bowl games like Sun, Russell Athletic, etc.

I feel that the four non-conference opponents should be two easy ones (NCCU and then the Tulane/Army level is fine) and two mid-tiers that we can generally expect to split with in an average year (Northwestern seems like the right level here even though we can't seem to beat them). We don't need to be playing top 10 teams. Especially as FSU and Clemson are coming up in the rotation.

Otherwise we could be looking at some 5-7 type years with teams that are probably the same or better quality as we were in '13 and '14 when we were winning 9 and 10.

I don't think avoiding great programs is a viable option. If we want Duke to compete in football, we have to schedule tougher opponents. Eventually Duke has to beat somebody they shouldn't have any business beating. Duke had Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel beat and let it go. They had Arizona State beaten and did the same thing with a KO run back costing them the game. If Cut could ever beat a Florida State or Alabama, or just some program of that stature then recruiting becomes so much easier. And he will get a 5-star at some point. Before you say there's no way, remember when Duke had the no-win season and where they are now. Duke is mentioned as a final list of schools all over the place now. Just think what he could do if he starts getting 5-stars.

I hear you, I just think the likelihood of that is outweighed by the risk of needlessly having losing seasons and missing out on bowl games because we had too many losses to very good teams. I don't think those versions of Arizona State or Texas A&M were great teams. They were middle of the pack Top 25 teams.

It's just that Alabama is a guaranteed loss. Baylor (when we scheduled Baylor, before the fallout from their off-the-field stuff) was pretty much a guaranteed loss.

If you want to move up a tier beyond Northwestern, schedule Penn State, schedule Arkansas, schedule UCLA, for example. Duke may be able to beat those types of teams in the next couple years with a few good bounces of the ball. I just think we went overboard with Alabama and (when scheduled) Baylor.

And we probably need to also fill up the stadium before we can expect 5 stars. Cut has done an incredible job but you have to crawl before you walk and walk before you run.
 
I think we'll beat both Northwestern and Baylor this year. We had our run of easier schedules from 2012-2015. To be the best, you have to play and beat the best. I am ready to see how we fare against stronger competition.
 
Arkansas probably would have beaten Duke's ass the last couple of years, but they'll suck for at least two or three seasons with the new coach once Bielema gets canned.
 
Arkansas probably would have beaten Duke's ass the last couple of years, but they'll suck for at least two or three seasons with the new coach once Bielema gets canned.

That's what makes scheduling these games so difficult. It is very tough to predict how good a team will be when non-conference games are scheduled as early as 10 years in advance.

A good example would be Kansas. They sucked when we first scheduled them, but hit an all-time high around the time of the first meeting in 2009, as Cut was slowly dragging us out of the gutter. By 2014, the Jayhawks had been completely dismantled by the ineptitude of Charlie Weis, while we were in the midst of the best stretch since the Spurrier era.
 
The over/under win totals for every FBS team have been up for a few weeks at Bovada. Here is the ACC:
Duke's odds mean that Duke is expected to win 5 or 6 games, with 5 slightly more likely than 6 (expected number of wins based on these odds is approximately 5.4). I assume this does not include any postseason games for any team.

As usual, Duke should be among the top 5 teams in priority for getting a bowl bid with a 6-6 record, so a bowl bid with 6 wins has a good chance of happening. Based on all of this, I would say Duke has about a 40-45% chance to make a bowl. Full disclosure: I can't name any current Duke football players except Daniel Jones.

Alabama and Ohio State lead the way for power conference teams, at 10.5 wins, with Alabama likelier to get to 11 wins than Ohio State.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...-for-all-130-fbs-teams-released-by-las-vegas/
 
I'm getting excited about this season. At this time last season Duke had already lost a few players to injury, especially the starting QB. Staying healthy will mean the difference in getting back to a bowl.
 

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