North Carolina at Duke - Pregame/Predictions

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This is UNC's Super Bowl.

 

[NOD]

I think we're in trouble.

Is it wrong that I plan on starting Gio in my fantasy league for this game?

 

[aiw]

41-20

 

[Thain]

I will be there. I predict we rebound and win by 10, 31-21. VT finally pulled together today and looked like the team they were supposed to at the beginning of the season. We can score on UNC. We just need the defense to regroup and stop their offense.

 

[truly101]

Transitive property doesn't work in football. We played bad in the 2nd half and VT woke up (and were at home). UNC should be favored, but we CAN beat them. Whether or not we will is a different story.

 

[bfactor]

UNC should be favored, but we CAN beat them.

My outlook on basically every game we have left, aside from FSU.

 

[bfactor]

 

[Pantone287]

We're going to have to play beyond ourselves for the whole game to have a shot, IMO, especially on defense. UNC has three offensive lineman and a RB who are projected 1st/2nd round picks. Scary good running the ball.

Mainly, I just hope we actually compete the whole time. Don't want to get humiliated like last week.

 

[bfactor]

I don't have grand expectations, but we've played them really well in years where it should have been a blowout. We'll see how the injury report for the front seven shapes up. That's critical.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line is only 10-10.5. Much better than I expected, but Duke still requires a string of little miracles to get the win. Duke tried to go toe to toe with VT, playing their typical game, and given how the two teams looked in the 1st half, I don't blame Cutcliffe. In this one, Duke would be better off playing ugly and trying to shorten the game as much as possible. If UNC wants to to run it down your throats, make them take 7-8 minutes to get their points. Give it to Duncan, Snead and Thompson, maybe throw in some Boone options, and if you go 3 and out, at least take 2 minutes off the clock doing it. Short, safe passes. NOT 100% swing passes. If you have any kind of Boise State craziness in the playbook, put it all out there. This is Duke's last chance for a month.

 

[NOD]

SMTTEM -- I've always wanted to ask, but I have trouble thinking of how to ask the question without seeming like an ass -- why do you care so much about the line? Do you think it correlates to reality in some way? Do you think that it's an accurate approximation of the true spread? I mean, after all, all it is is an attempt from the gambling community to maximize betting on both sides of the line. In actuality, its correlation to game results is nothing special in the realm of statistical significance.

 

[DukeFan1000]

Yes... Go for the Glory

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

SMTTEM -- I've always wanted to ask, but I have trouble thinking of how to ask the question without seeming like an ass -- why do you care so much about the line? Do you think it correlates to reality in some way? Do you think that it's an accurate approximation of the true spread? I mean, after all, all it is is an attempt from the gambling community to maximize betting on both sides of the line. In actuality, its correlation to game results is nothing special in the realm of statistical significance.

I think the gambling community does do a good job in assessing the two teams and predicting what should happen in the game. When I see UNC favored by 10, it makes sense to me that UNC should be 10 points better than Duke at Duke. Statistically, the Vegas spreads in NFL games are an average of 9 points off, which is really good when you remember that 0 points off is the best possible outcome (there are no negative numbers weighing the average variance down). Historically, they beat every computer or human predictor. So for every crazy result like Packers by 18 in Houston or Giants by 23 in San Francisco, or Lehigh over Duke, the oddsmakers are nailing it in several other games. In college football, there will be more variance than in the NFL, but I don't know the exact number - probably something like 11-12 points off on average. Which means Duke could very well win this game by a point or two and no one in Vegas would be surprised at all, but if UNC and Duke played 10 times on 10 consecutive days starting this week, with no significant injuries, everyone but the irrational homers would expect UNC to win by an average of around 10 points.

They ideally want 50/50 betting, which means they're not necessarily "predicting" what will happen, but how the betting public wagers their money will generally will set a good "prediction" anyway. When real money is on the line, people almost always act rationally. When they don't, we get the once a decade or so disaster like dotcom or the housing bubble. For example, if Vegas sets the opening line of Alabama vs Notre Dame as Notre Dame being favored by 100 points, zero people in the world are taking Notre Dame -100. Anyone with any money and an internet connection is putting their life savings on Alabama to stay within 100 of Notre Dame, and the casinos are going bankrupt. So obviously, on the extremes, it makes no sense for the casinos to make a bad "prediction." If you get closer to a normal example, like say Duke being only 6-point underdogs vs UNC, Vegas is still going to be taken to the cleaners with that kind of line. They also might win big with a great Duke performance, with everyone losing on UNC -6, but it's much more likely that they lose big when Bernard goes for 200 yards rushing and UNC wins by 7-14. They have to go with something within 2-3 points of the best possible prediction, or else they lose money, and they generally have no reason to deviate from the best possible prediction at all. Extreme cases of unequal homer support, like Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars, might result in a line being 1-2 points off the best possible prediction, but not enough people care about Duke or UNC football on either side to make this line deviate.

 

[ricstr01]

This could really be a winnable game for Duke...provided 1) we finish plus 1 or better in turnovers 2) take some chances on both sides of the ball (staying in a base defense for 4 quarters is an invitation for GB to rush for 200 yards, while a predictable offensive game plan based on the usual personnel packages is not going to work). We are playing our biggest rival at home for a chance to go to a bowl since before...hell since my kid was born for Christ sake (she starts drivers ed tomorrow by the way) so if we lay an egg or just roll it out as business as usual and get splattered like a bug on a windshield I'm selling the balance of my season tickes and take a cooking class.

 

[CK86]

Just win baby, just win. Get one more, go to a bowl and I'm super stoked for this season.

 

[Pantone287]

Wonder how the crowd will be split between Duke/UNC... I'd hope that we could get at least a 27-28k contingent (playing UNC, teams have exact same record, opportunity for a bowl, 7PM kick), but there's no way the Wade is actually 80% Duke fans Saturday. Should be fun tailgating either way, though.

No word on Connette's shoulder yet, I guess. Was supposed to get some more imaging done today, per the twitters.

 

[dukeberto]

The only thing that makes me feel better about Connette's shoulder is that it's not the one that caused him to be out for the season last year. However, if he actually did separate it I'd imagine he would sit out at least one week? I know that once you pop a shoulder out it is much more likely to happen again. Docs, can you weigh in?

Regarding the crowd split? I'd imagine something like 30% Duke, 70% UNC.

 

[ChibCU]

I have an ex that will be there. And I made her a Duke fan, so I'm doing my part in helping with the Duke/UNC ratio.

 

[dukeofcalabash]

We're going to have to play beyond ourselves for the whole game to have a shot, IMO, especially on defense. UNC has three offensive lineman and a RB who are projected 1st/2nd round picks. Scary good running the ball.

Mainly, I just hope we actually compete the whole time. Don't want to get humiliated like last week.

You got that right, last week embarassed me to look the wife in the face after all I'd been bragging about this team.

Is it possible to save a sinking ship? We will see this weekend.

 

[bfactor]

Lengthy game notes from the SID:

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml? ... EM_ID=4200

Duke vs. North Carolina
October 20, 2012 (7:00 p.m.)
Wallace Wade Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
ESPNU
Blue Devil IMG Sports Network

Duke vs. North Carolina Notes
• In the annual battle for the Victory Bell, Duke plays game eight of its 100th season of football by hosting rival North Carolina at 7 p.m. at Wallace Wade Stadium ... The game will be broadcast live by ESPNU with Clay Matvick (play-by-play), Matt Stinchcomb (analyst) & Allison Williams (sideline) calling the action

• The Blue Devils stand at 5-2 overall and 2-1 in ACC play after falling to Virgina Tech, 41-20, last weekend, while the Tar Heels are 5-2 overall and 2-1 in league play after winning at Miami, 18-14

• Duke is 138-251-8 all-time in ACC play with league titles in 1953, 1954, 1955, 1960, 1961, 1962 & 1989

• Continental Tire is the official game sponsor of this week’s game ... Duke will also hold Breast Cancer Awareness & Cheer Day against the Tar Heels

• Saturday’s game will mark the 99th on the gridiron between the two schools, with North Carolina holding a 58-36-4 all-time series advantage ... The first game in the series came on November 27, 1888 with Duke earning a 16-0 victory in Raleigh ... The Tar Heels have won eight straight and 21 of the past 22 meetings including last year’s 37-21 decision in Chapel Hill ... Duke’s last win over North Carolina at Wallace Wade Stadium came in the form of a 35-29 decision in 1988

• This year’s Duke-North Carolina tilt marks the earliest meeting between the rivals since the 1926 season when they met on October 16 ... It will mark just the fourth time since 1965 that the Blue Devils will not conclude the regular season with the Tar Heels (1991, 2001 & 2009)

• The battle for the Victory Bell began in 1948 with North Carolina earning possession with a 20-0 win ... Head cheerleaders from Duke (Loring Jones) and North Carolina (Norman Spear) decided on the idea, with Jones designing the model and Spear obtaining a bell from an old railroad train ... Red Lewis, Duke’s business manager, agreed to find money in the budget to pay for the bell

• Duke’s 5-1 start matches the third-best six-game opening to a season since the inception of the ACC in 1953 ... The only two better starts came in 1957 (5-0-1) & 1994 (6-0)

• Duke WR Conner Vernon & Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins are the only two players in the ACC to have 2+ receiving TDs in multiple games this season

• Duke S Walt Canty earned ACC Defensive Back of the Week honors after his 14-tackle, 3.0-tackle for loss performance in Duke’s 42-17 win over Virginia ... Canty joins CB Ross Cockrell & S Jordon Byas as Blue Devil defensive backs to recieve the honor in 2012

• Led by WR Conner Vernon’s five scoring receptions, nine different Blue Devils have caught touchdown passes in 2012 ... All three Duke QBs — Anthony Boone (5), Brandon Connette (1) & Sean Renfree (9) — have thrown scoring tosses

• Through six games, Duke has outscored its opponents by a 116-63 margin in the second half

By the Numbers
3 - Touchdown receptions of 50+ yards for WR Jamison Crowder in 2012 ... That total matches the second-highest single-season total in school history and sits just one shy of the Duke standard of four set by Eron Riley in 2007

4 - Non-offensive touchdowns scored by the Blue Devils this season, matching the sixth-highest total in school history ... The Duke record is six, set in 1994

45.892 - ACC-leading punting average for P Will Monday, who is aiming to be the first Duke player to lead the league in punting average since Brian Morton (45.17) in 2000 ... Monday's average also sits just .001 shy of the school's single-season record of 45.893 set by Steve Lach during the 1941 campaign ... Monday has booted an ACC-best 11 punts covering 50 yards or better - four more than the next closest player

.650 - Current winning percentage of Duke's final six regular season opponents - Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech & Miami ... they are 26-14 this season and have combined to capture 29 ACC (1986-04) or division (2005-11) crowns since 1986 (26 years)

19 - Receiving yards needed by WR Conner Vernon to pass Clarkston Hines (3,318) as the school's career leader