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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
His own blog discussion of this stab at the preseason ratings:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... _overlords
His own blog discussion of this stab at the preseason ratings:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... _overlords
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
I don't like Kentucky being projected to be better than Duke offensively and I don't like UCLA being projected anywhere in the top 20 on defense, let alone #7, but I have not seen much of either team (Kentucky because no one has seen much of their key players in the past year, and UCLA because I had no reason to watch them last season).
At best for UCLA, I see a lineup of Larry Drew II, Kyle Anderson/Tyler Lamb, Shabazz Muhammad, Wear, Josh Smith, and I have trouble imagining these guys playing elite defense. Without Muhammad, it gets worse.
Is Harrow better offensively than Cook? Goodwin better than Sulaimon? I buy Poythress being better than Murphy. Wiltjer over Kelly offensively is not right. Noel over Mason offensively is not right. Kentucky has no bench. So is Poythress so much better than Murphy that it makes up for Duke being better offensively at every other position?
I don't like Kentucky being projected to be better than Duke offensively and I don't like UCLA being projected anywhere in the top 20 on defense, let alone #7, but I have not seen much of either team (Kentucky because no one has seen much of their key players in the past year, and UCLA because I had no reason to watch them last season).
At best for UCLA, I see a lineup of Larry Drew II, Kyle Anderson/Tyler Lamb, Shabazz Muhammad, Wear, Josh Smith, and I have trouble imagining these guys playing elite defense. Without Muhammad, it gets worse.
Is Harrow better offensively than Cook? Goodwin better than Sulaimon? I buy Poythress being better than Murphy. Wiltjer over Kelly offensively is not right. Noel over Mason offensively is not right. Kentucky has no bench. So is Poythress so much better than Murphy that it makes up for Duke being better offensively at every other position?
ChibCU
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
UCLA may be ranked so high because they use every second of the shot clock on every possession. Takes that much time for their fatties to get to their spots. This in turn lowers the number of possessions their opponents get.
UCLA may be ranked so high because they use every second of the shot clock on every possession. Takes that much time for their fatties to get to their spots. This in turn lowers the number of possessions their opponents get.
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
Here is Duke's schedule and Kenpom preseason rankings (assuming Memphis and Louisville in the Bahamas):
Tuneup
Georgia State 164
Media: "Good (Kentucky) vs Evil (Duke)"
Kentucky (neutral) 1
Recovery
Florida Gulf Coast 125
The Best Pre-Conference Tournament
Minnesota (neutral) 26
Memphis (neutral) 16
Louisville (neutral) 8
Revenge Game
Ohio State 2
The Weird Part of the Schedule
Delaware 116
Temple (neutral) 61
Cornell 189
Elon 194
Santa Clara 154
Davidson (neutral) 44
ACC Tuneup
Wake Forest 201
Clemson 77
The First "True Road Game"
at NC State 24
Recovery from the Humiliation in Raleigh
Georgia Tech 119
Trudging Along
at Miami 40
Maryland 135
at Wake Forest 201
at Florida State 51
Revenge Game
NC State 24
UNC Tuneup
at Boston College 134
McAdoo Indoor Stadium?
North Carolina 15
TDD: "Thugs"
at Maryland 135
at Virginia Tech 79
A Couple of Really Boring Games
Boston College 134
at Virginia 65
UNC Tuneup
Miami 40
Virginia Tech 79
At Least They'll Replay The Shot Dozens of Times
at North Carolina 15
Here is Duke's schedule and Kenpom preseason rankings (assuming Memphis and Louisville in the Bahamas):
Tuneup
Georgia State 164
Media: "Good (Kentucky) vs Evil (Duke)"
Kentucky (neutral) 1
Recovery
Florida Gulf Coast 125
The Best Pre-Conference Tournament
Minnesota (neutral) 26
Memphis (neutral) 16
Louisville (neutral) 8
Revenge Game
Ohio State 2
The Weird Part of the Schedule
Delaware 116
Temple (neutral) 61
Cornell 189
Elon 194
Santa Clara 154
Davidson (neutral) 44
ACC Tuneup
Wake Forest 201
Clemson 77
The First "True Road Game"
at NC State 24
Recovery from the Humiliation in Raleigh
Georgia Tech 119
Trudging Along
at Miami 40
Maryland 135
at Wake Forest 201
at Florida State 51
Revenge Game
NC State 24
UNC Tuneup
at Boston College 134
McAdoo Indoor Stadium?
North Carolina 15
TDD: "Thugs"
at Maryland 135
at Virginia Tech 79
A Couple of Really Boring Games
Boston College 134
at Virginia 65
UNC Tuneup
Miami 40
Virginia Tech 79
At Least They'll Replay The Shot Dozens of Times
at North Carolina 15
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
Looking at the Kempom rankings after Duke covers a spread by 18 points is always good. Duke is now #3 overall, #2 offense, #14 defense. The stink of Pomeroy's preseason rankings is still weighing those numbers down a little bit (preseason #9 overall, #3 offense, #21 defense). I'd estimate that Duke is #3 overall, #2 offense, #10 defense when only taking into account performance this season.
Teams really benefit on margin-based ranking systems from blowing out nationally mediocre teams by much more than expected, and Duke hasn't had many opportunities to do that this season. Indiana and Florida have. Beating Cornell and Elon by 40+ would be helpful. Realistically, it won't happen against Temple, though that would obviously make Duke look even better than killing Cornell and Elon.
Minnesota is now the 9th best team in the country, though their defense has somehow slipped behind their offense.
Michigan is basically the team Duke was expected to be before the season - great offense, not great defense. Stauskas regressing in 3pt shooting would bring down their offense.
Wisconsin is no longer sacred on Kenpom. Falling fast.
But not as fast as UCLA.
NC State is who everyone with a brain thought they were.
The middle of the ACC is doing well, helping Duke in the long run. Everyone except BC and Wake is respectable.
Florida State no longer plays defense.
Looking at the Kempom rankings after Duke covers a spread by 18 points is always good. Duke is now #3 overall, #2 offense, #14 defense. The stink of Pomeroy's preseason rankings is still weighing those numbers down a little bit (preseason #9 overall, #3 offense, #21 defense). I'd estimate that Duke is #3 overall, #2 offense, #10 defense when only taking into account performance this season.
Teams really benefit on margin-based ranking systems from blowing out nationally mediocre teams by much more than expected, and Duke hasn't had many opportunities to do that this season. Indiana and Florida have. Beating Cornell and Elon by 40+ would be helpful. Realistically, it won't happen against Temple, though that would obviously make Duke look even better than killing Cornell and Elon.
Minnesota is now the 9th best team in the country, though their defense has somehow slipped behind their offense.
Michigan is basically the team Duke was expected to be before the season - great offense, not great defense. Stauskas regressing in 3pt shooting would bring down their offense.
Wisconsin is no longer sacred on Kenpom. Falling fast.
But not as fast as UCLA.
NC State is who everyone with a brain thought they were.
The middle of the ACC is doing well, helping Duke in the long run. Everyone except BC and Wake is respectable.
Florida State no longer plays defense.
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
Checking in on Kenpom.com in the aftermath of Duke's coronation as the #1 team in the country based on the eye test...
No surprise that a 1-point loss at Arizona didn't hurt Florida much in a system that doesn't care about wins and losses. Florida was supposed to win by 2 points and they lost by 1 instead.
Indiana's offense and defense both took big hits, and it's becoming clearer that Indiana isn't an overwhelming superteam. The perceived best player in the country, Zeller, was taken out by his coach for defensive possessions at the end of the game. Hulls is so bad defensively that Brad Stevens drew up an iso play for a former walk-on and 7% usage player with the game on the line just to abuse Hulls. The once giant gap between their offense and Duke's offense has closed to a more believable 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Indiana may have room to improve offensively but Duke probably has more - Ferrell is Indiana's only key player who hasn't put up a ridiculously high offensive rating, whereas Cook and Sulaimon could do much better for Duke (Kelly could shoot better from 3 as well).
Pitt is the 6th best team in the country apparently. One major reason is freshman Steven Adams, who grabs a bigger share offensive rebounds than Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly combined. Adams will be in the NBA next season.
With all the talk of Brad Stevens as next Duke coach, it's worth noting that Shaka Smart has put together the 15th best team in the country.
Jabari's future team hasn't quite been able to overtake Creighton. But Izzo will get them to play at a national championship level when it counts, like he always does. Except every year since 2000.
UNLV and UNC are the same team. Should be a good game.
UCLA with all that talent is like a phoenix rising from the ashes, all the way past Wichita State.
Miami is #30 now and proving the Florida Gulf Coast loss was a fluke. Miami could end up being the 2nd best team in the ACC.
Of course an initially nonthreatening Duke opponent would jump into the top 100 this season - Santa Clara is 8-2 and has risen to #97.
Checking in on Kenpom.com in the aftermath of Duke's coronation as the #1 team in the country based on the eye test...
No surprise that a 1-point loss at Arizona didn't hurt Florida much in a system that doesn't care about wins and losses. Florida was supposed to win by 2 points and they lost by 1 instead.
Indiana's offense and defense both took big hits, and it's becoming clearer that Indiana isn't an overwhelming superteam. The perceived best player in the country, Zeller, was taken out by his coach for defensive possessions at the end of the game. Hulls is so bad defensively that Brad Stevens drew up an iso play for a former walk-on and 7% usage player with the game on the line just to abuse Hulls. The once giant gap between their offense and Duke's offense has closed to a more believable 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Indiana may have room to improve offensively but Duke probably has more - Ferrell is Indiana's only key player who hasn't put up a ridiculously high offensive rating, whereas Cook and Sulaimon could do much better for Duke (Kelly could shoot better from 3 as well).
Pitt is the 6th best team in the country apparently. One major reason is freshman Steven Adams, who grabs a bigger share offensive rebounds than Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly combined. Adams will be in the NBA next season.
With all the talk of Brad Stevens as next Duke coach, it's worth noting that Shaka Smart has put together the 15th best team in the country.
Jabari's future team hasn't quite been able to overtake Creighton. But Izzo will get them to play at a national championship level when it counts, like he always does. Except every year since 2000.
UNLV and UNC are the same team. Should be a good game.
UCLA with all that talent is like a phoenix rising from the ashes, all the way past Wichita State.
Miami is #30 now and proving the Florida Gulf Coast loss was a fluke. Miami could end up being the 2nd best team in the ACC.
Of course an initially nonthreatening Duke opponent would jump into the top 100 this season - Santa Clara is 8-2 and has risen to #97.
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
Louisville, Ohio State, VCU, Minnesota and Kentucky are 5 of the top 13 as of today.
Shaka Smart has built a top 10 program.
Louisville, Ohio State, VCU, Minnesota and Kentucky are 5 of the top 13 as of today.
Shaka Smart has built a top 10 program.
the boogeyman
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
The defense jumped all the way up from 18 or 19 to 13 after the cornell game. that makes me feel a lot better about being behind uf and iu, who have played more weaklings thus far. elon will be better, and i doubt we dominate like that, but hopefully it will give our defense another nice bump.
The defense jumped all the way up from 18 or 19 to 13 after the cornell game. that makes me feel a lot better about being behind uf and iu, who have played more weaklings thus far. elon will be better, and i doubt we dominate like that, but hopefully it will give our defense another nice bump.
DurhamSon
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
I think last years numbers are finally kinda just phasing out. Goes to show how atrocious they were.
Also, anyone seen our rebounding numbers lately? Don't have them exactly, but it seems we're much better in that regard. Thinking it was our gauntlet preseason schedule that might have skewed them versus other top teams after all.
I think last years numbers are finally kinda just phasing out. Goes to show how atrocious they were.
Also, anyone seen our rebounding numbers lately? Don't have them exactly, but it seems we're much better in that regard. Thinking it was our gauntlet preseason schedule that might have skewed them versus other top teams after all.
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
I'm susprised they were as bad as they were. We have, arguably the best rebounder in the country and outside of Kelly, everyone else is a solid rebounder. Kelly kills our numbers though. I realize he stretches the D but there's no excuse for him not averaging 6-7rebs a game.DurhamSon said:
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
Defensive rebounding is up to #219 in the country. Baby steps. Offensive rebounding is still incredibly bad. The good thing is Duke is good at drawing fouls, so even though we don't have a Zoubek buffer against bad shooting games, we have a free throw buffer. Despite the Elon game, Duke makes its free throws when they get there. They are reliant on good 3pt shooting (3rd in the country) but all 5 starters can draw fouls if they need to. I've given up on the offensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding can get up to top 100 level, though.
Defensive rebounding is up to #219 in the country. Baby steps. Offensive rebounding is still incredibly bad. The good thing is Duke is good at drawing fouls, so even though we don't have a Zoubek buffer against bad shooting games, we have a free throw buffer. Despite the Elon game, Duke makes its free throws when they get there. They are reliant on good 3pt shooting (3rd in the country) but all 5 starters can draw fouls if they need to. I've given up on the offensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding can get up to top 100 level, though.
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Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013
Another thing - if the shooting is bad in any given game in the NCAAs, and if those bad shooters aren't getting to the line instead of continuing to chuck jumpers, then I trust K to remove them for better rebounders anyway. Our 2nd,3rd and 4th best rebounders are all bench guys.
Another thing - if the shooting is bad in any given game in the NCAAs, and if those bad shooters aren't getting to the line instead of continuing to chuck jumpers, then I trust K to remove them for better rebounders anyway. Our 2nd,3rd and 4th best rebounders are all bench guys.