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So how good are we really?

Pantone287

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Oct 7, 2012
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We kind of touched on this in chat earlier, but I'm very confused.

Like, I look at these power rankings that have us third in the conference, and my initial reaction is along the lines of, "Please take that down before someone sees it." But then, I have to begrudgingly admit that we do have the third best record in the conference, and we that we did just beat the team I would have put there otherwise pretty convincingly.

If I'm honest with myself, I know we're not actually as talented as VT, Miami, UNC, probably State, maybe not even GT or Maryland yet, but maybe... just maybe, when we execute like we did against UNC and started to against VT, we can still be just as effective as some of those teams on a given day? I realize this is a dangerous path to go down, but... I dunno. WTF? Help.

Rooting for a non-terrible college football team is a strange new world for me.
 
Your last line (and I suppose the whole post, really) is spot on for me.

I keep telling people we're winning with smoke and mirrors. But at some point I feel like I've got to admit wait, we might actually be a pretty decent football team. We've been so bad for so long that each week I expect us to lose. I didn't think we'd beat FIU. Didn't think we'd beat Wake, Virginia and certainly not Carolina. Yet all of those games we managed to win. And yet I didn't expect us to win those games because, We are Duke, we're not supposed to win those games. And as we win these games I never would've given us a chance in, I'm starting to think we might actually be pretty good.

I don't know, I'm a bit conflicted as to how good we are. I'm really interested to see how we finish up the season. As my optimistic side starts to emerge, I find myself thinking Georgia Tech is a lock for us to win with the Miami game being a toss-up. And then I think back to how bad we've been and I'm like there's no fucking way in hell I would say we could win those games.
 
Duke's median computer ranking is 53rd (http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm). There are 68 schools in the automatic qualifier conferences. Duke is better than 29 of them according to the computers: Tennessee, Washington, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Miami, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Purdue, California, Syracuse, Utah, Maryland, Minnesota, Temple, Wake Forest, South Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Indiana, Connecticut, Illinois, Washington State, Virginia, Kansas, Boston College, Colorado. So Duke is currently in the 43rd percentile of AQ programs in terms of performance this season.

There are some "inferior" teams on that list which probably shouldn't be below Duke. Sagarin only has Duke 65th, compared to 53rd, and that seems closer to reality. Duke would not beat Virginia Tech most of the time on a neutral field. Same with Tennessee, Arkansas, Washington, Purdue and California, at least. We can conclude something like Duke is somewhere between the bottom quarter and top half of all AQ programs.

Recruiting has been steady since Cutcliffe took over, with 10-12 3-star commits every year. We can assume this will improve now that Duke is established as a bowl-caliber program. I think a realistic goal is for Duke to be an average AQ program over the next few seasons.
 
FYI - Duke's highest computer ranking is 24th and Duke's lowest computer ranking is 85th. There is a computer (Nutshell) that ranks Alabama 11th. Based solely on that, it should be disregarded. It also has UNC 7th.
 
Yeah, I'm so used to that familiar, overwhelming mix of dread, sadness and doom when imagining any upcoming games that I'm not sure how I'm supposed to feel. Just, like, excited? It really is like BFFS (Battered Football Fan Syndrome)... I'm so sure that this false sense of security and hope is going to come crashing down any minute, just because that's what happens to me as a Duke football fan. :lol:

Anyway, Sagarin has us kind of bunched together with Miami and GT in the middle of the ACC, ahead of Maryland, Wake, UVA and BC, but behind FSU, Clemson, UNC, VT and State. I could tentatively buy that new frame of reference for now, I suppose.


Edit: Whoops, thought I was the only one still up. Makes sense though. Part my disbelief probably stems from recruiting - on paper, our current talent is singificantly inferior to even a team like UVA. I know ratings and offer sheets aren't perfect, but I can't quite figure how much of our success so far has really been due to improved talent and how much has simply been due to incredible efforts by our guys this season, if that makes any sense.
 
It's nice expecting field goal kicks to go through the uprights and punts to actually cover some distance without going out of bounds.

I think we finish 7-5 with a small chance at 8-4.
 
All I can say is that we have 'looked' good a much greater % of the time this year than anytime I can remember. Even '94 and '90. I think it started last year when we would have some stretches where the defense looked as if they could go toe-to-toe with what were vastly superior athletes. IMO, an objective observer would have said we were FAR superior 'looking' on Saturday (despite the score) even though we all know that UNC has far better talent on paper.

A lot of it is great execution (smoke and mirrors), but I do think attitude and expectations have slowly become ingrained to the point where we take the field unintimidated and aggressive, which - if maintained - make us a 'good' team. There is a limit to this, but I think we can compete most of the time with most programs. Not win necessarily, but compete. The FSU game will be VERY intriguing w/r/t how true this is.
 
Based on the eye test, which I always prefer over any sort of statistical analysis (NERDS!), I think we look a lot better than any team since 1994. Faster to the ball on defense. Way fewer total breakdowns on both sides. Able to run with some power from time to time. Able to actually kick a football between the two goalposts.
 
Maryland has the worst QB situation in the nation. 4 QB's suffered a season ending injury, 3 of them with ACL injuries
-CJ Brown (junior) - tore ACL
-Devin Burns (sophomore) - broken foot
-Perry Hills (freshman) - tore ACL
- Caleb Rowe (true freshman) tore his ACL in first college game Saturday

Either converted linebacker Shawn Petty or converted tight end Brian McMahon will start at quarterback this Saturday against Georgia Tech.

Duke would have benefited from playing against either Maryland or Boston College this season.

I hope that Duke can pull out the victory against Miami which has, statistically speaking, one of the worst defenses in the nation. But Miami has played a difficult OOC schedule that ended in lopsided loses which are likely skewing the numbers.
 

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