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Champion Watch - Updated for Brackets

Topher

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Champion Watch - 12/13/12

What does it take to be a champion? Guts, heart, will, other inspirational cliches to describe immeasurable intangibles?  More often than not it is a combination of a specific set of skills that would make even Liam Neeson in "Taken" impressed.

Typically, teams have to have one of the top 20 efficient offenses coupled with one or another outstanding qualities.  For instance, the 2010 Duke squad rode upper echelon offensive rebounding to multiple offensive chances as Brian Zoubek of all people keyed the Blue Devils to a title.

But let's say your favorite team sucks at rebounding.  The natural way to compensate for it is to force a lot of turnovers to balance the possessions.  It shouldn't be a surprise that typically, the team that takes the most shots, wins the game.

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First, if you look at Turnover %, you'll notice that national champions have come from all walks of life in this category.  For instance, the 04 UConn squad with Emeka Okafor was TERRIBLE at forcing turnovers, easily the worst if only by a narrow margin over (surprise!) 2011 UConn.

Only two teams turned the ball over more than they forced (04 UConn and 07 Florida) however both of those teams were aided by outstanding performance in other areas (more on that shortly).

The best performers here were 2010 Duke and 09 UNC, both of whom also had top offenses those seasons.  Duke, led by Jon Scheyer, played as a team that prided itself on efficient possessions as it turned the ball over the fewest of the champions and had the second highest offensive rebounding rate.  UNC was modeled in the same way with a similarly high offensive rebounding rate.

I find it interesting that Florida actually stopped forcing as many turnovers from 06 to 07.  Their turnover rate remained the same but experienced a 4% drop in forcing them. Billy Donovan's squad made up for this by rebounding much better during the title defense.

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Speaking of, rebounding rates were a mixed bag as well.  If teams weren't elite rebounders, they made up for it on either dTO% or dFG%.  Last years UK team was pretty average at turnovers and slightly above average rebounding. However, they were one of the best defensive teams of the last ten years.
Only 09 Memphis, 07 UConn, 05 Boston University, and 04 UConn were better.

That 04 UConn team was also the best offensive rebounding team of the champions which allowed it to negate its terrible turnover ratios.

While Kansas and 07 Florida were pretty weak on the offensive glass, they made up for it on the defensive end by grabbing over 71% of defensive rebounds.

javJQ.png


Looking at the defensive numbers, after Kentucky and 04 UConn, every team resided in the 43.6 to 46.4 range.  Based on a cumulative average over the last ten years, that would place every team in the top 50 at dFG%.

So, thats a lot of words and numbers to tell us what? Well, it means that aside from having a top offense (a staple of every champion) they must also do one of these at an elite level.

While this all seems fairly obvious, it allows us to build a profile for the top teams of the season.  Currently, here are the teams that fall within the profile created by those champions for the 2012-2013 season:
[top 20 offense + (dTO% > 20) or (oTO% < 17) or (off Reb% >40) or (defReb% >70) or (dFG% < 45)]

Florida - 4
Minnesota - 3
Indiana - 4
Ohio State - 5
Pittsburgh - 4
Gonzaga - 2
Michigan - 2
Duke - 3
Creighton - 1
St. Mary's - 1
Notre Dame - 3
Arizona - 3
Syracuse - 4
Wisconsin - 4
Kentucky - 3
Kansas - 3
Belmont - 1
Lehigh - 1
Baylor - 1

That is 19 of the top 20 offenses (oh..sorry NC State) that fall into one of the other categories.  The number beside each team is the number of categories they fall under.

Now, something to keep in mind is that as the season progresses, these teams will fall off as the numbers start to regress to the mean.

For example, Minnesota's offensive rebounding percentage is about five percentage points higher than the next closest team in the last ten years and right now about 12 teams are slated to break that record so either its the best offensive rebounding year ever or they haven't evened out yet.

Notably absent you might say is Louisville.  The Cardinals actually fit four of the five categories but lay outside the top 20 in offensive efficiency at #23.  I'm assuming they will join the ranks shortly but they currently do not meet that criteria.  Still, they will absolutely be a final four contender.

By the end of the year, this fellowship of nineteen should be whittled down to only a few strong contenders for their one shining moment.

My early expectations are that Florida, Indiana, Ohio State, Louisville, and Duke are left standing in this group.  I'll monitor this list going forward in our monthly Champions update at duke-forum.com.

Raw Data:
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Re: Champion Watch

Another week gone by and another day closer to last season’s data being filtered out of KenPom’s statistics completely. We’ve now seen Duke’s rebounding start climbing back up the ranks albeit slowly as well as the defense taking bigger steps.

As I outlined in last week’s watch, we’re looking at rebounding, turnover, and defensive indicators based on past champions.

As of 12/13, 19 of the top 20 adjusted offensive efficiency teams fit one of the other traits:

[top 20 offense + (dTO% > 20) or (oTO% < 17) or (off Reb% >40) or (defReb% >70) or (dFG% < 45)]

Ohio State - 5
Florida - 4
Pittsburgh - 4
Indiana - 4
Syracuse - 4
Wisconsin - 4
Minnesota - 3
Duke - 3
Kentucky - 3
Kansas - 3
Notre Dame - 3
Arizona - 3
Gonzaga - 2
Michigan - 2
Creighton - 1
St. Mary's - 1
Belmont - 1
Lehigh - 1
Baylor - 1

The number beside each team is the number of categories they fall under.

Now here is the update for this week:

Pittsburgh - 5
Indiana - 4
Florida - 4
Ohio State - 4
Creighton - 4
Wisconsin - 4
Duke - 3
Kansas - 3
Gonzaga - 3
Minnesota - 3
Missouri - 3
Syracuse - 3
Michigan - 2
Notre Dame - 2
UCLA - 2
Arizona - 2
St. Mary’s - 1
VCU - 1
Lehigh - 1

First, welcome to the Watch; Missouri, UCLA, and VCU. Arrivaderci to Baylor, Belmont, and Kentucky.

Our list remains at 19 with only NC State placing in the top 20 of offensive effciency and not qualify in the other categories. Louisville remains just on the outside with the 21st offense.

Pittsburgh is shockingly still underrated by all the polls as they are the only team to place in the top ten in effective FG%, offensive TO%, and offensive rebounding %. Coupled with a top 20 defense, the Panthers should be considered a legitmate national title contender.

Looking at our newcomers, it was simply a matter of time until Missouri and VCU cracked the list. The surprise is UCLA, which has been largely unimpressive this season and rumors have come out that Ben Howland could be replaced by the end of the season. Certainly not championship material. All the same, the play of Larry "Assist Jesus" Drew II has propelled the Bruins below the 17% line in offensive TO%, which has qualified them for the list. I expect they're vacation into this slight relevance to be a mere holiday.
 
Re: Champion Watch

Since Luke Winn is so obviously reading my thread, I figured I'd update it for comparison's sake (sort of):

We're roughly a month since this last update. The Christmas break is done with and now we're settling into the heart of conference play. Here is the newly modified list:

Michigan - 2
Florida - 3
Gonzaga - 1
Creighton - 1
Indiana - 4
Notre Dame - 3
Minnesota - 3
Duke - 3
St. Mary's - 1
NC State - 1
Pittsburgh - 4
Arizona - 2
Iowa State - 2
Louisville - 3
Colorado St - 2
Iona - 1
Kansas - 2
UCLA - 1
Ohio State - 4
Missouri - 3


The list is in order of offensive efficiency. 7 of the last ten years, the champion had either the best or second best offensive efficiency. 03 Syracuse (11), 04 UConn (8), and 11 UConn (16) are the outliers. As of right now, it appears Florida and Michigan are the favorites to win the title.
 
Re: Champion Watch

Toph you slippin b. I won't get of your dik until this is updated.
 
Re: Champion Watch

lol ill update in a few mins, been lazy
 
Re: Champion Watch

fuk Jo he a b

Florida - 3
Colorado St - 3
Pittsburgh - 3
Syracuse - 3
Ohio State - 3
Detroit - 3 (lololololol)
Indiana - 2
Michigan - 2
Gonzaga - 2
Duke - 2
Michigan St - 2
Minnesota - 2
Arizona - 2
Louisville - 2
Creighton - 1
St. Mary's - 1
Iowa St - 1
Notre Dame - 1
Marquette - 1
Missouri - 1



NC State - 0 (all freaking year)

1) Detroit probably isnt for real as they have an atrocious defense, by far the worst of the group, at 187. What qualifies them is a top three TO%, and barely qualifying in DTO% and OR%. Colorado State is similar as they are tops in OR% and second in DR%, also qualify in TO% by the skin of their teeth. The Rams should definitely be a sleeper pick in the tournament.

2)Familiar faces round out the top of the board, however, you will notice the number of categories in which teams are meeting the standard is dropping. I contribute this to schedules getting tougher and having common opponents.

3) Missouri narrowly missed out on qualifying in two other categories, OR% and DeFG%. Still, Frank Haith.

4) If I had extended the parameters a bit more, Kansas would have logged two qualifiers. But this isn't a sweet 16 watch, pansies.

Right now, Florida seems like the prohibitive KenPom favorite but Duke would probably have hit the DeFG% marker (only .6% off) with a full season of Ryan Kelly.
 
Re: Champion Watch

Like all systems, it is clearly flawed if Duke is not number one by a wide margin.
 
Re: Champion Watch

There are a few logical reasons its flawed and Ill tweak it for next season but Im curious to see how it grades out. Also, dook suuuks
 
Now that the brackets are out, let's update the list and see how the brackets might shake out if my theory here is at all relevant. (probs not)

For starters, of the top 30 teams in offensive efficiency, only two didn't make the tournament: Detroit and Baylor (no word on how many players Scott Drew will have deported).

So, as usual, here's how the top 20 stacks up.

Pittsburgh - 4
Florida - 3
Ohio State - 3
Colorado St - 3
Indiana - 2
Michigan - 2
Gonzaga - 2
Duke - 2
Miami - 2
Louisville - 2
Syracuse - 2
Arizona - 2
Iowa State - 1
VCU - 1
St. Mary's - 1
Notre Dame - 1
Missouri - 1
Creighton - 1
NC State - 0
Marquette - 0

This isn't to say that Marquette and NC State should be upset in the first round but I wouldn't expect them to go very far. In fact, I actually have Davidson pulling the upset over Marquette (they qualify in 2 categories without meeting the Ortg bar) but that has little to do with this study.

Pitt continues to inspire little confidence in my metric as the 8 seed seems to be a statistical wonder while failing at the "eye test." However, they drew Gonzaga as their #1 and should match up very well with them. I like them to pull that upset and I've been picking them in my bracket to make the Elite 8.

Colorado State is a sneaky tough opponent for Louisville in the second round (fuck you, first four) as they completely own the boards and limit turnovers very well. Its a recipe for a high ratio of possessions, which, if you'll remember, is exactly how Duke was able to navigate their 2010 bracket. I'm not saying the Rams will win but if they do (or at least show well), I should be able to more weight in this study going forward.

If I really wanted to bet on this, my final four would be Pittsburgh, Florida, Colorado State and Indiana. Since that won't happen but the season is wide open, I think its a fair gamble to pick against Gonzaga and Kansas making the Final Four.

As the tournament progresses and teams are eliminated, I'll update this thread with all remaining teams and how they stack up.

Later this week, I'll post my bracket with each game chosen based on this criteria and put it up in our bracket contest to see how it fairs.
 
So, of our top 20 from last week, here are the remaining teams:

Florida - 3
Ohio State - 3
Indiana - 2
Michigan - 2
Duke - 2
Miami - 2
Louisville - 2
Syracuse - 2
Arizona - 2
Marquette - 0

10 of the Sweet 16 represented, all roughly equal. Based on the brackets and this criteria, Florida and Ohio State seem like large favorites to move on. Marquette, the ugly duckling, was very lucky in its opening weekend, scraping by both Davidson and Butler. It appears its run should be over against Miami, however, with Reggie Johnson now done for the season, they might have caught yet another break.

Michigan State is missing from my list because they have the 21st best offense. If they were eligible, they would qualify in just defensive field goal percentage, by five tenths of a point.

Based on these numbers, here are my winners for the weekend:

Louisville
Duke

Wichita State
Ohio State

Michigan
Florida

Indiana
Miami

With a Final Four of:
Duke
Ohio State
Florida
Indiana
 
Well, now that Indiana and Miami have lost, my hopes for Duke have been crushed.
 

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