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Now is the appropriate time.
Duke Basketball 2015-2016 was one big grace period. Time of death, depending on your perspective, was: (1) when Amile Jefferson suffered the longest healing foot injury in the history of man; (2) when Matt Jones suffered an injury that accelerated his aging process from being a 35 year old in the twilight of his athletic career, to being a 50 year old who should've stopped playing years ago; (3) whenever it became clear that four of Duke's scholarship players would be incapable of adding positive overall value by March; (4) when Duke's defensive efficiency relapsed to a sub-100 ranking in the ACC Tournament; or (5) when Tyus Jones declared for the NBA draft.
Duke Basketball 2016-2017 will be one of the last few windows for a national title before a head coaching change, and there will be no excuses, even in the worst of imaginable scenarios. No lack of talent. No lack of depth. Maybe a season-ending injury or two, but enough talent and depth to overcome that.
Here is the best case scenario for a playable roster:
PG Derryck Thornton, Frank Jackson
SG Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
SF Jayson Tatum, Matt Jones
PF Harry Giles, Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier
C Amile Jefferson, Chase Jeter
As much as some fans may be intrigued by a 13-man rotation playing a full court pressing, "40 minutes of extreme hell" style of basketball, I really don't think Sean Obi, Antonio Vrankovic and Jack White will be in the mix for meaningful minutes.
There aren't too many question marks in terms of returnees, but the one big question mark is a gigantic one. The loss of Allen to the NBA would likely be undervalued by fans and media. It wouldn't be so crippling that the program should be given another free pass. However, the ceiling on Duke would go from being a dominant 2-3 loss regular season team, to merely being an elite title contender among a few others. The loss of Allen should be viewed through the lens of Allen's potential production as a junior, which could reasonably be projected to be one of the top 10 individual seasons in Duke history.
This is the best one-stat summary of Allen's overall production, in my opinion:
Highest Single-Season Win Shares in the Past 20 Years of Duke Basketball
10.1 Shane Battier 2001
10.0 Elton Brand 1999
9.7 Jon Scheyer 2010
9.1 Shelden Williams 2006
8.5 Carlos Boozer 2002
8.4 Shelden Williams 2005
8.2 Kyle Singler 2010
7.9 Shelden Williams 2004
7.8 JJ Redick 2006
7.5 Shane Battier 2000
7.4 Nolan Smith 2011
7.3 Jason Williams 2001
7.2 Mike Dunleavy 2002
6.9 Mason Plumlee 2013
6.8 Quinn Cook 2015
6.8 Kyle Singler 2009
6.7 Grayson Allen 2016 (not including the NCAA Tournament)
6.7 Jahlil Okafor 2015
6.7 Nolan Smith 2010
6.5 Tyus Jones 2015
6.4 Shane Battier 1998
6.4 Roshown McLeod 1998
6.3 Trajan Langdon 1999
6.3 Jason Williams 2002
6.2 JJ Redick 2005
6.1 William Avery 1999
6.1 Kyle Singler 2011
6.0 Josh McRoberts 2007
5.8 Shane Battier 1999
5.8 Seth Curry 2013
5.6 Luol Deng 2004
5.5 Jabari Parker 2014
5.5 Gerald Henderson 2009
5.5 Jon Scheyer 2009
5.5 Justise Winslow 2015
Allen has already surpassed or met what any of his classmates did last year in win shares. He has accomplished this in six fewer games than anyone had last season. Allen is tied with Buddy Hield for most win shares among all power conference players this season. It's not inconceivable that Allen would put up a true pantheon season for Duke as a junior, blowing away every other player in college basketball and joining seniors Jon Scheyer and JJ Redick in the top 3 seasons by a Duke guard in over 20 years. I don't include senior Nolan Smith in that thought, because I believe Allen has a good chance to surpass or come very close to senior Smith's win shares as a sophomore, after Duke's game or games in the NCAA Tournament.
This would be a much bigger loss than most will recognize. There is no replacement for a guard like that, other than another guard like that. Without any sarcasm or irony, Allen's NBA decision is by far the biggest key to next season (the ironic key is Chase Jeter). It may be the biggest NBA decision in Duke history, if we consider the fact that every player ahead of Allen on the list above stayed at Duke for at least three seasons, except Brand, and in today's game, Brand would never be a candidate to stay beyond one year. Allen would be the 2nd most valuable player to ever leave Duke before his junior year (at least since 1996), so the potential/projected junior season he would be leaving on the table would be almost unprecedented (at least since 1996).
Even if Allen comes back, there could be a severe problem with spacing and shooting with the main lineup that most would pencil in. Thornton has not been a very good or smart shooter thus far. His possible replacement in the main lineup, Jackson, does not have a reputation as a very good or smart shooter coming out of high school. Tatum shot 30% from 3 as a high school senior. Giles at PF would probably provide incredible rebounding and hopefully good rim protection, but he's not a floor spacing PF. It seems there should be some cause for worry when Kennard, a low 30s 3pt shooter as a freshman, is the best bet to space defenses in Allen's absence. Playing both Matt Jones and Kennard together for heavy minutes may be a solution, but when you are playing a lot of Thornton, Jones and Kennard together, what is your ceiling as a team? Does it really look better than the 2015-2016 starting lineup?
I believe all of these guys will be significantly better shooters next season, for a variety of reasons, so Duke's offense should be fine as it normally is. It's not a given that it will be pretty, though. A healthy tandem of Giles and Jefferson grabbing 30% of offensive rebound chances on their own would essentially erase any spacing/shooting issues, to a certain extent, and the team's overall ability to make layups should be much improved in connection with that.
Defense will once again be something to just kind of hope for, with not many concrete reasons to believe it will be good. Duke has finished outside the top 20 in defensive efficiency in five of the past six regular seasons. Duke has not finished in the top 10 in any of those seasons. For one perfectly timed stretch of six games in the past six seasons, Duke's defense was glorious. Outside of that 2015 title run, it has not been elite for any prolonged period and it has often been terrible. Twice in the past three seasons, Duke finished the regular season with a sub-100 defensive efficiency ranking.
Here are some reasons for optimism on defense: (1) Jefferson had the best defensive rating on Duke before his injury as a senior, he had a top 3 defensive rating on Duke as a junior, and he will presumably return as an even wiser, more physically jacked 5th year senior; (2) Giles has always been an instinctively great athletic freak when his knees have been intact, the sort of big man Duke has never had before, and this should translate to great defensive value by the end of the season even if he doesn't get it at first; (3) Allen seems like an insanely competitive hard worker who could be a great defender; and (4) in theory, it really can't get worse than the 2015-2016 season, when the players were forced to play passively to avoid foul trouble, and most of them were playing close to 40 minutes every game without foul trouble.
If Allen returns, I would guess Vegas starts this team with 5-1 to 7-1 odds to win the national title. Kentucky 2015 started with 5-1 odds and Duke 2015 started with 9-1 odds. The favorites in 2016 started with 10-1 odds. If Allen doesn't return, Duke would probably start with something around 10-1 odds. Much will depend on how Duke will have looked in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, but I think it's a safe assumption that Duke will have gone no further than the Sweet 16.
Duke Basketball 2015-2016 was one big grace period. Time of death, depending on your perspective, was: (1) when Amile Jefferson suffered the longest healing foot injury in the history of man; (2) when Matt Jones suffered an injury that accelerated his aging process from being a 35 year old in the twilight of his athletic career, to being a 50 year old who should've stopped playing years ago; (3) whenever it became clear that four of Duke's scholarship players would be incapable of adding positive overall value by March; (4) when Duke's defensive efficiency relapsed to a sub-100 ranking in the ACC Tournament; or (5) when Tyus Jones declared for the NBA draft.
Duke Basketball 2016-2017 will be one of the last few windows for a national title before a head coaching change, and there will be no excuses, even in the worst of imaginable scenarios. No lack of talent. No lack of depth. Maybe a season-ending injury or two, but enough talent and depth to overcome that.
Here is the best case scenario for a playable roster:
PG Derryck Thornton, Frank Jackson
SG Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
SF Jayson Tatum, Matt Jones
PF Harry Giles, Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier
C Amile Jefferson, Chase Jeter
As much as some fans may be intrigued by a 13-man rotation playing a full court pressing, "40 minutes of extreme hell" style of basketball, I really don't think Sean Obi, Antonio Vrankovic and Jack White will be in the mix for meaningful minutes.
There aren't too many question marks in terms of returnees, but the one big question mark is a gigantic one. The loss of Allen to the NBA would likely be undervalued by fans and media. It wouldn't be so crippling that the program should be given another free pass. However, the ceiling on Duke would go from being a dominant 2-3 loss regular season team, to merely being an elite title contender among a few others. The loss of Allen should be viewed through the lens of Allen's potential production as a junior, which could reasonably be projected to be one of the top 10 individual seasons in Duke history.
This is the best one-stat summary of Allen's overall production, in my opinion:
Highest Single-Season Win Shares in the Past 20 Years of Duke Basketball
10.1 Shane Battier 2001
10.0 Elton Brand 1999
9.7 Jon Scheyer 2010
9.1 Shelden Williams 2006
8.5 Carlos Boozer 2002
8.4 Shelden Williams 2005
8.2 Kyle Singler 2010
7.9 Shelden Williams 2004
7.8 JJ Redick 2006
7.5 Shane Battier 2000
7.4 Nolan Smith 2011
7.3 Jason Williams 2001
7.2 Mike Dunleavy 2002
6.9 Mason Plumlee 2013
6.8 Quinn Cook 2015
6.8 Kyle Singler 2009
6.7 Grayson Allen 2016 (not including the NCAA Tournament)
6.7 Jahlil Okafor 2015
6.7 Nolan Smith 2010
6.5 Tyus Jones 2015
6.4 Shane Battier 1998
6.4 Roshown McLeod 1998
6.3 Trajan Langdon 1999
6.3 Jason Williams 2002
6.2 JJ Redick 2005
6.1 William Avery 1999
6.1 Kyle Singler 2011
6.0 Josh McRoberts 2007
5.8 Shane Battier 1999
5.8 Seth Curry 2013
5.6 Luol Deng 2004
5.5 Jabari Parker 2014
5.5 Gerald Henderson 2009
5.5 Jon Scheyer 2009
5.5 Justise Winslow 2015
Allen has already surpassed or met what any of his classmates did last year in win shares. He has accomplished this in six fewer games than anyone had last season. Allen is tied with Buddy Hield for most win shares among all power conference players this season. It's not inconceivable that Allen would put up a true pantheon season for Duke as a junior, blowing away every other player in college basketball and joining seniors Jon Scheyer and JJ Redick in the top 3 seasons by a Duke guard in over 20 years. I don't include senior Nolan Smith in that thought, because I believe Allen has a good chance to surpass or come very close to senior Smith's win shares as a sophomore, after Duke's game or games in the NCAA Tournament.
This would be a much bigger loss than most will recognize. There is no replacement for a guard like that, other than another guard like that. Without any sarcasm or irony, Allen's NBA decision is by far the biggest key to next season (the ironic key is Chase Jeter). It may be the biggest NBA decision in Duke history, if we consider the fact that every player ahead of Allen on the list above stayed at Duke for at least three seasons, except Brand, and in today's game, Brand would never be a candidate to stay beyond one year. Allen would be the 2nd most valuable player to ever leave Duke before his junior year (at least since 1996), so the potential/projected junior season he would be leaving on the table would be almost unprecedented (at least since 1996).
Even if Allen comes back, there could be a severe problem with spacing and shooting with the main lineup that most would pencil in. Thornton has not been a very good or smart shooter thus far. His possible replacement in the main lineup, Jackson, does not have a reputation as a very good or smart shooter coming out of high school. Tatum shot 30% from 3 as a high school senior. Giles at PF would probably provide incredible rebounding and hopefully good rim protection, but he's not a floor spacing PF. It seems there should be some cause for worry when Kennard, a low 30s 3pt shooter as a freshman, is the best bet to space defenses in Allen's absence. Playing both Matt Jones and Kennard together for heavy minutes may be a solution, but when you are playing a lot of Thornton, Jones and Kennard together, what is your ceiling as a team? Does it really look better than the 2015-2016 starting lineup?
I believe all of these guys will be significantly better shooters next season, for a variety of reasons, so Duke's offense should be fine as it normally is. It's not a given that it will be pretty, though. A healthy tandem of Giles and Jefferson grabbing 30% of offensive rebound chances on their own would essentially erase any spacing/shooting issues, to a certain extent, and the team's overall ability to make layups should be much improved in connection with that.
Defense will once again be something to just kind of hope for, with not many concrete reasons to believe it will be good. Duke has finished outside the top 20 in defensive efficiency in five of the past six regular seasons. Duke has not finished in the top 10 in any of those seasons. For one perfectly timed stretch of six games in the past six seasons, Duke's defense was glorious. Outside of that 2015 title run, it has not been elite for any prolonged period and it has often been terrible. Twice in the past three seasons, Duke finished the regular season with a sub-100 defensive efficiency ranking.
Here are some reasons for optimism on defense: (1) Jefferson had the best defensive rating on Duke before his injury as a senior, he had a top 3 defensive rating on Duke as a junior, and he will presumably return as an even wiser, more physically jacked 5th year senior; (2) Giles has always been an instinctively great athletic freak when his knees have been intact, the sort of big man Duke has never had before, and this should translate to great defensive value by the end of the season even if he doesn't get it at first; (3) Allen seems like an insanely competitive hard worker who could be a great defender; and (4) in theory, it really can't get worse than the 2015-2016 season, when the players were forced to play passively to avoid foul trouble, and most of them were playing close to 40 minutes every game without foul trouble.
If Allen returns, I would guess Vegas starts this team with 5-1 to 7-1 odds to win the national title. Kentucky 2015 started with 5-1 odds and Duke 2015 started with 9-1 odds. The favorites in 2016 started with 10-1 odds. If Allen doesn't return, Duke would probably start with something around 10-1 odds. Much will depend on how Duke will have looked in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, but I think it's a safe assumption that Duke will have gone no further than the Sweet 16.