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Duke Basketball 2016-2017

SeanMayTriedToEatMe

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Now is the appropriate time.

Duke Basketball 2015-2016 was one big grace period. Time of death, depending on your perspective, was: (1) when Amile Jefferson suffered the longest healing foot injury in the history of man; (2) when Matt Jones suffered an injury that accelerated his aging process from being a 35 year old in the twilight of his athletic career, to being a 50 year old who should've stopped playing years ago; (3) whenever it became clear that four of Duke's scholarship players would be incapable of adding positive overall value by March; (4) when Duke's defensive efficiency relapsed to a sub-100 ranking in the ACC Tournament; or (5) when Tyus Jones declared for the NBA draft.

Duke Basketball 2016-2017 will be one of the last few windows for a national title before a head coaching change, and there will be no excuses, even in the worst of imaginable scenarios. No lack of talent. No lack of depth. Maybe a season-ending injury or two, but enough talent and depth to overcome that.

Here is the best case scenario for a playable roster:

PG Derryck Thornton, Frank Jackson
SG Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard
SF Jayson Tatum, Matt Jones
PF Harry Giles, Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier
C Amile Jefferson, Chase Jeter

As much as some fans may be intrigued by a 13-man rotation playing a full court pressing, "40 minutes of extreme hell" style of basketball, I really don't think Sean Obi, Antonio Vrankovic and Jack White will be in the mix for meaningful minutes.

There aren't too many question marks in terms of returnees, but the one big question mark is a gigantic one. The loss of Allen to the NBA would likely be undervalued by fans and media. It wouldn't be so crippling that the program should be given another free pass. However, the ceiling on Duke would go from being a dominant 2-3 loss regular season team, to merely being an elite title contender among a few others. The loss of Allen should be viewed through the lens of Allen's potential production as a junior, which could reasonably be projected to be one of the top 10 individual seasons in Duke history.

This is the best one-stat summary of Allen's overall production, in my opinion:

Highest Single-Season Win Shares in the Past 20 Years of Duke Basketball

10.1 Shane Battier 2001
10.0 Elton Brand 1999
9.7 Jon Scheyer 2010
9.1 Shelden Williams 2006
8.5 Carlos Boozer 2002
8.4 Shelden Williams 2005
8.2 Kyle Singler 2010
7.9 Shelden Williams 2004
7.8 JJ Redick 2006
7.5 Shane Battier 2000
7.4 Nolan Smith 2011
7.3 Jason Williams 2001
7.2 Mike Dunleavy 2002
6.9 Mason Plumlee 2013
6.8 Quinn Cook 2015
6.8 Kyle Singler 2009
6.7 Grayson Allen 2016 (not including the NCAA Tournament)
6.7 Jahlil Okafor 2015
6.7 Nolan Smith 2010
6.5 Tyus Jones 2015
6.4 Shane Battier 1998
6.4 Roshown McLeod 1998
6.3 Trajan Langdon 1999
6.3 Jason Williams 2002
6.2 JJ Redick 2005
6.1 William Avery 1999
6.1 Kyle Singler 2011
6.0 Josh McRoberts 2007
5.8 Shane Battier 1999
5.8 Seth Curry 2013
5.6 Luol Deng 2004
5.5 Jabari Parker 2014
5.5 Gerald Henderson 2009
5.5 Jon Scheyer 2009
5.5 Justise Winslow 2015

Allen has already surpassed or met what any of his classmates did last year in win shares. He has accomplished this in six fewer games than anyone had last season. Allen is tied with Buddy Hield for most win shares among all power conference players this season. It's not inconceivable that Allen would put up a true pantheon season for Duke as a junior, blowing away every other player in college basketball and joining seniors Jon Scheyer and JJ Redick in the top 3 seasons by a Duke guard in over 20 years. I don't include senior Nolan Smith in that thought, because I believe Allen has a good chance to surpass or come very close to senior Smith's win shares as a sophomore, after Duke's game or games in the NCAA Tournament.

This would be a much bigger loss than most will recognize. There is no replacement for a guard like that, other than another guard like that. Without any sarcasm or irony, Allen's NBA decision is by far the biggest key to next season (the ironic key is Chase Jeter). It may be the biggest NBA decision in Duke history, if we consider the fact that every player ahead of Allen on the list above stayed at Duke for at least three seasons, except Brand, and in today's game, Brand would never be a candidate to stay beyond one year. Allen would be the 2nd most valuable player to ever leave Duke before his junior year (at least since 1996), so the potential/projected junior season he would be leaving on the table would be almost unprecedented (at least since 1996).

Even if Allen comes back, there could be a severe problem with spacing and shooting with the main lineup that most would pencil in. Thornton has not been a very good or smart shooter thus far. His possible replacement in the main lineup, Jackson, does not have a reputation as a very good or smart shooter coming out of high school. Tatum shot 30% from 3 as a high school senior. Giles at PF would probably provide incredible rebounding and hopefully good rim protection, but he's not a floor spacing PF. It seems there should be some cause for worry when Kennard, a low 30s 3pt shooter as a freshman, is the best bet to space defenses in Allen's absence. Playing both Matt Jones and Kennard together for heavy minutes may be a solution, but when you are playing a lot of Thornton, Jones and Kennard together, what is your ceiling as a team? Does it really look better than the 2015-2016 starting lineup?

I believe all of these guys will be significantly better shooters next season, for a variety of reasons, so Duke's offense should be fine as it normally is. It's not a given that it will be pretty, though. A healthy tandem of Giles and Jefferson grabbing 30% of offensive rebound chances on their own would essentially erase any spacing/shooting issues, to a certain extent, and the team's overall ability to make layups should be much improved in connection with that.

Defense will once again be something to just kind of hope for, with not many concrete reasons to believe it will be good. Duke has finished outside the top 20 in defensive efficiency in five of the past six regular seasons. Duke has not finished in the top 10 in any of those seasons. For one perfectly timed stretch of six games in the past six seasons, Duke's defense was glorious. Outside of that 2015 title run, it has not been elite for any prolonged period and it has often been terrible. Twice in the past three seasons, Duke finished the regular season with a sub-100 defensive efficiency ranking.

Here are some reasons for optimism on defense: (1) Jefferson had the best defensive rating on Duke before his injury as a senior, he had a top 3 defensive rating on Duke as a junior, and he will presumably return as an even wiser, more physically jacked 5th year senior; (2) Giles has always been an instinctively great athletic freak when his knees have been intact, the sort of big man Duke has never had before, and this should translate to great defensive value by the end of the season even if he doesn't get it at first; (3) Allen seems like an insanely competitive hard worker who could be a great defender; and (4) in theory, it really can't get worse than the 2015-2016 season, when the players were forced to play passively to avoid foul trouble, and most of them were playing close to 40 minutes every game without foul trouble.

If Allen returns, I would guess Vegas starts this team with 5-1 to 7-1 odds to win the national title. Kentucky 2015 started with 5-1 odds and Duke 2015 started with 9-1 odds. The favorites in 2016 started with 10-1 odds. If Allen doesn't return, Duke would probably start with something around 10-1 odds. Much will depend on how Duke will have looked in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, but I think it's a safe assumption that Duke will have gone no further than the Sweet 16.
 
Thanks for the insight. Shelden shows up 3 times on that list...wow.

All good points on the importance of Grayson's decision.

I am pretty excited about watching Tatum. I was surprised to see the low 3pt%...I thought he had made big improvements on that part of his game.

Matt Jones in particular should benefit from Giles' inside presence and Amile kicking out offensive boards. He is a competent spot-up shooter.

It is unlikely DT's offensive game (namely decision making) will take a huge leap forward in one year. Maybe by his senior year, but probably not next year. Even with this huge hole in his game, I believe Thornton has great value because he is on his way to being a true lockdown perimeter defender. I was trying to think of the last time Duke had such a player (in recent years, the best Duke defenders have been frontcourt players)...probably Chris Duhon in 2004. DT can really get after people.

It is crucial that Jeter gets stronger in the offseason not only for rotational depth, but if there is another frontcourt injury next year Duke could be in trouble.
 
This was from my article this week but it goes along with SMTTEM's point about Grayson (this was pre-tournament):

According to sports-reference.com, Allen has 6.3 win shares this season. That is already the 8th best season by a Duke underclassman since 1994, in at least 5 fewer games than all those above him. He is already first in offensive win shares at 5.1, ahead of guys like Elton Brand, Jason Williams, and Jahlil Okafor.
 
The East Regional is in Madison Square Garden, the one place outside of Cameron where we wouldn't necessarily be at a distinct crowd disadvantage. Virginia and Villanova will be losing significant guys. UNC may not even be eligible. Come back, Grayson.
 
Based on recent events, I am revising my projection for the rotation and no longer designating specific positions, since it seems Duke will be playing positionless basketball next season, as invented by John Calipari:

Rotation Players

Grayson Allen / Frank Jackson
Matt Jones / Luke Kennard
Jayson Tatum
Harry Giles
Amile Jefferson / Marques Bolden

Emergency Players

Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier
Chase Jeter

Non-Factors

Jack White
Sean Obi
Antonio Vrankovic

No Longer on Scholarship

Derryck Thornton
Justin Robinson
 
K has decided to play 'Total Basketball' to honor Cruyff. Like the Dutch, they will be fearsome but come up short.
 
Just looking at AP All-Americans, trying to see which teams have any media-anointed great players coming back...

1st Team
Tyler Ulis (Kentucky) - declared
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma) - senior
Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia) - senior
Denzel Valentine (Michigan State) - senior
Brice Johnson (North Carolina) - senior

2nd Team
Kris Dunn (Providence) - declared
Georges Niang (Iowa State) - senior
Perry Ellis (Kansas) - senior
Ben Simmons (LSU) - declared
Jakob Poeltl (Utah) - PROBABLE TO DECLARE - projected top 10 pick

3rd Team
Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) - senior
Jamal Murray (Kentucky) - declared
Grayson Allen (Duke) - QUESTIONABLE - rumored to return
Key Felder (Oakland) - QUESTIONABLE - but who cares
Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa) - senior

I think it's safe to say 14 out of the top 15 relevant players according to the AP will be gone, with the 1 possible relevant returner being the morally corrupt Grayson Allen.
 
Absurd that Grayson was only third team. Have to think the "scandals" didn't help.
 
I have this group a notch above everyone else next season, assuming all the questionable returners return and all the 247 Crystal Ball predictions are accurate. These are not good assumptions, so we have strong rooting interests in the decisions of the players named below.

DUKE

Returners/newcomers projected over 8.0 BPM: 4
(these players were already over 8.0 BPM last season with minimum 300 minutes, or they are consensus top 10 freshmen)
Grayson Allen, Harry Giles, Amile Jefferson, Jayson Tatum

Others with a good chance to be over 8.0 BPM: 3
(these players were between 6.0-8.0 BPM last season with minimum 300 minutes, or they are consensus 10-25 rank freshmen)
Marques Bolden, Matt Jones, Luke Kennard

KANSAS

Returners/newcomers projected over 8.0 BPM: 5
Devonte' Graham, Josh Jackson, Landen Lucas, Frank Mason, Brannen Greene

Others with a good chance to be over 8.0 BPM: 3
Udoka Azubuike, Carlton Bragg, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

KENTUCKY

Returners/newcomers projected over 8.0 BPM: 6
Bam Adebayo, De'Aaron Fox, Marcus Lee, Malik Monk, Tyler Ulis, Derek Willis

Others with a good chance to be over 8.0 BPM: 1
Wenyen Gabriel

LOUISVILLE

Returners/newcomers projected over 8.0 BPM: 4
Mangok Mathiang, Donovan Mitchell, Chinanu Onuaku, Raymond Spalding

Others with a good chance to be over 8.0 BPM: 1
V.J. King

NORTH CAROLINA

Returners/newcomers projected over 8.0 BPM: 4
Joel Berry, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson

Others with a good chance to be over 8.0 BPM: 1
Theo Pinson

VILLANOVA

Returners/newcomers projected over 8.0 BPM: 4
Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Darryl Reynolds

Others with a good chance to be over 8.0 BPM: 1
Omari Spellman
 
UNC is back.

FWIW, I've read recently that it's not a sure thing that Ulis is gone. However, he's somehow projected first round in some places.
 
Ulis is going #20 on DraftExpress so he will probably stay in the draft, but I'll edit my post to include him because he isn't signing an agent, to be consistent.

These players have the decisions most relevant to Duke, in order of importance:

Grayson Allen (Duke)
Marques Bolden (choosing between Duke and Kentucky)
Chinanu Onuaku (Louisville)
Tyler Ulis (Kentucky)
Josh Jackson (choosing between Kansas, Michigan State and Arizona, in that order on 247)

I wasn't considering the possibility of any UNC guys leaving early. Justin Jackson has somehow slipped to the late 1st round of next year's draft after starting this season with a lottery projection in this year's draft. Meeks is Meeks. Berry maybe, since there are no point guards to compete with this season, and there will be a ton next season. Hicks... I don't know if NBA people know who Hicks is, or will know who he is even after UNC's two Final Four wins. The ruining of lives by Roy isn't even amusing anymore. The consistency with which he turns top 10 overall recruits into fringe 1st rounders after 3-4 years is just sad now.

Unrelated note: Michigan State would've made the "notch above" list, but two of their >8.0 BPM guys played under 300 minutes. These weren't walk-ons playing 5 good minutes or anything like that. I don't know what Izzo was doing with them.
 
As much as i dislike the idea of Bolden, we might have to get him to keep him away from UK if reports from the McdAA practices of him dominating on both ends is true. More important in optimizing our team is keeping the gap between us and UK bigger, since I believe we have a clear advantage if Ulis goes and Grayson stays.

Hard to fathom one of Amile/Giles/Bolden not starting, but then again UK would present him the same issue.
 
Also, i bet Cal feels stupid for recruiting SKJ and he feels stupid for committing.


Fwiw on IC it is believed Meeks will follow the McAdoo/Tokoto path of leaving after a junior year despite questionable draft stock
 
I think Kansas is the best non-Duke team on SMTTEM's list. I would think they are preseason #2 if they land Josh Jackson and Duke returns Allen and Jefferson, setting up a #1 vs. #2 matchup in the Champions Classic in November.

One team that I think we may have to consider is Kenpom #11 Oregon if they return Tyler Dorsey (who is 50-50 to leave apparently). Dillon Brooks is back, Chris Boucher actually was granted another year of eligibility recently and they actually could get Dylan Ennis back from an injury as well (he's transferred twice, been hurt, and will turn 25 next season). And there's that white guy with a 125 O Rating that killed us too.

Given that we'll have Kansas and probably a road game against the best B10 team (MSU?), I don't think we need to schedule that aggressively out of conference. I would actually be in favor of scheduling a fringe Top 25 team at MSG and adding back the home and home with St. John's, starting with a road game, given that the East Regional is in MSG and I don't think we'd be eligible for another preseason tourney in MSG.
 

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