Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

It looks like Music City would be the best. I think most will agree that Chik-fil-a is probably too big for Duke right now. I always liked the Sun Bowl but it would be weird and we would have like 10 people there. Belk is too many painful memories plus we might play Cincy again. I don't know what the Russell Athletic Bowl is but I'm guessing it sucks.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

For ticket sale purposes, they're likely to put us where we stand to have the best turnout, right?

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

I do think we are in line for a 9 win season.

VIZIO BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 6
Discover Orange Bowl, Jan. 3
Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31
Russell Athletic Bowl, Dec. 28
Hyundai Sun Bowl, Dec. 31
Belk Bowl, Dec. 28
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30
AdvoCare V100 Bowl, Dec. 31
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman, Dec. 27

Belk Bowl isn't going to take us two years in a row. I think realistically we have three options: Russell, Music City, and Sun Bowl. We WILL get picked for one of those three, helped in part by our selling out our allotment last year.

Personally, I would love the Music City Bowl. Nashville, over New Years Eve weekend. Southeastern location, easy to get to, fun city. Only problem is that we would get matched up against an SEC team and likely get destroyed.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

Looks like we can now start to realistically talk about which bowl we will be at come Dec/Jan.

At this point in the season it's starting to look that we will fall no further than the Belk Bowl, and for that to happen I believe we would have to lose out. Unfortunate that Nashville is a lesser bowl than Charlotte, but c'est la vie.

Scenarios:
Belk Bowl
Lose to Wake, Lose to UNC. 8-4 season. Duke represented well enough in Charlotte last year that I believe they would bring us back. Plus with NC State out of the picture, our only competition might be a 7-5 UNC team. However, I think that UNC will get sent to Shreveport or Nashville this year. Or they may go to Sun Bowl ahead of us.

Sun Bowl:
Beat Wake, Lose to UNC. 9-3 season.
This seems to be the popular choice of the bowl prognosticators. Not the best location for Duke (or any?) fans, but Sun Bowl is not as concerned with ticket sales as other bowls, mainly because of their TV contract with CBS. This would likely be the most disappointing bowl for the team, based on location, although their gift baskets may be nicer than other bowls given the history and payout to the ACC.

Russell Athletic
The only way I see us going to Russell is if VaTech loses to UVa, Miami loses one of their next two games, and we lose to Wake but beat UNC. We would be 9-3 with an offchance to go to the ACCCG through tiebreakers.
Miami has the upperhand here regionally, and VaTech has been a Russell Bowl invitee several times in the past few years and usually travels well. Another consideration is whether GaTech beating UGA would get them into this bowl. Unlikely, but worth noting - mainly because Tech is one of the only schools left that is outfitted by Russell, and I believe the founder is a Tech alum.

Chik-Fil-A
Beat Wake, Beat UNC - we are in Charlotte for the ACCCG.
I truly believe that CFA may take us if this is the case (as long as Clemson is headed to the Orange Bowl). I'm not the only one to think this either, as there are several predictors with us in Atlanta on NYE-including Schlabach, Dinich/Hale/Adelson, and AthlonSports.
Main reason being we are still a feel-good story. Not to mention Atlanta is the third largest Duke alum concentration in the country. We have about 5,000 families in the local area, and it is still close enough to the Triangle to bring in the NC-based contingent. Not to mention direct flights into Hartsfield Jackson from most of the country. We would certainly get crushed by whichever high SEC team we'd go up against, but it would be a helluva experience for the team.

Orange Bowl
Only way we are headed there is if we beat FSU in the ACCCG, meaning we win three straight. Can't get picked even if we are runner-up in the ACCCG due to not being in the BCS rankings. . Highly unlikely.

If I were to put odds on our bowl destination for this year I would go with:
Orange 1%
Belk 15%
Sun 44%
Russell 10%
CFA 30%

Beat wake handily on saturday and I will feel better about our chances against UNC, and better about our chances of landing in Atlanta.

Disclaimer: this is all based on FSU and Clemson winning out and getting the National Championship and Orange Bowl bids respectively. Otherwise we could drop as low as Shreveport if FSU is in Orange and Clemson is in CFA.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

Here are some of the projections as of November 19, 2013:

ESPN ACC blog - Chik Fil A, December 31.

(ESPN bowl "experts")
Mark Schlabach: Chik Fil A
Brad Edwards : Sun Bowl, December 31

Jerry Palm (CBSsports) - Belk, December 28

Phil Steele - Sun

CFN - Chik Fil A

AthlonSports - Chik Fil A

Tampabay.com - Chik Fil A

BleacherReports - Belk

SBNation - Russell, December 28th

Orlando Sentinel - Chik Fil A

Syracuse.com - Chik Fil A

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

I think we win both games and get blasted by FSU and end up in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl at 10-3

I'm definitely going to that one since my brother-in-law lives in Atlanta and told us we could stay with him. I don't care if I'm on the top row of the Georgia Dome, it'll be worth it.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

Chik-Fil-A would be incredible because it's guaranteed to be sold-out, Duke football's first game in a dome, and against a rowdy SEC team.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

I'm partial to CFA as well, seeing as how I live in Atlanta and can see the Dome from my office window. I really wanted an excuse to go somewhere over NYE, but playing in that game against the SEC would be so worth it. Let's just beat Wake and Carolina first.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

Topher said:

I think we win both games and get blasted by FSU and end up in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl at 10-3

I'm definitely going to that one since my brother-in-law lives in Atlanta and told us we could stay with him. I don't care if I'm on the top row of the Georgia Dome, it'll be worth it.

Click to expand...

I'm kind of surprised about the amount of optimism re: the UNC game. I don't like our chances in that one at all. Do people think Duke would be favored? I would think UNC by less than a FG.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

If it's UNC by less than a FG, then really Duke is favored. UNC has been decent this last stretch of games, but I think Duke has played better than they have the past several weeks. We are ranked higher than them in most of the advanced stats sites.

DBR said:

Football Outsiders is now updated with all three statistical measures.

FEI:
#26 Duke, 1 spot below #25 CLEMSON. FEI has us with the #22 O and #40 D

Our future opponents:
#86 Wake
#42 UNC

S&P+:
#50 Duke - (basically we've hovered around 49-53 since the VaTech game).
We have the #47 O (40th rushing, 39th passing), #53 D (81st against the pass, 83rd against the rush).

Our future opponents:
#68 Wake
#43 UNC

Finally, F/+, their combined and preferred measure:
#32 Duke (#32 O, #41 D).

Future Opponents
#40 UNC
#79 Wake

Click to expand...

I want to see us beat Wake handily this week and then I can see us being outright favorites against UNC. At worst, if we scrape by Wake, I see the game as a pick'em.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

I thought we played poorly against NC State in general, and I think that we'd lose to both Wake and UNC playing like that. Last week was certainly awesome other than our run D, which was pretty bad (even though the TDs didn't actually come on runs).

Wake doesn't seem to run the ball too well. Not sure how UNC's rushing attack has been.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

StopThePumpFakesShav said:

Topher said:

I think we win both games and get blasted by FSU and end up in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl at 10-3

I'm definitely going to that one since my brother-in-law lives in Atlanta and told us we could stay with him. I don't care if I'm on the top row of the Georgia Dome, it'll be worth it.

Click to expand...

I'm kind of surprised about the amount of optimism re: the UNC game. I don't like our chances in that one at all. Do people think Duke would be favored? I would think UNC by less than a FG.

Click to expand...

FWIW, Massey is calling us a 3 pt favorite (neutral field) and win probability of 60%

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s ... h+Carolina

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

My pessimism on the UNC game takes into account the fact that the game is in a hostile environment against our biggest rival who will be looking for revenge after last year, and is playing substantially better now than in the beginning of the year. I think that's a huge deal.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

StopThePumpFakesShav said:

My pessimism on the UNC game takes into account the fact that the game is in a hostile environment against our biggest rival who will be looking for revenge after last year, and is playing substantially better now than in the beginning of the year. I think that's a huge deal.

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I agree with you. I also think we're playing with a confidence and backbone I haven't seen in decades. Plus, we're playing our best ball right now. I also wouldn't consider Kenan much of a hostile environment.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

I like how our D matches up against their O. UNC doesn't do anything exceptionally well.

I like how our O matches up against their D even more. Which is to say that the middle of their defense is soft until you get to "trick or treat" Tre Boston.

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

Will our game with UNC be a bowl play-in game for them? I know they are 5-5 and have Old Dominion this week, but if they beat Old Dominion, does that make them eligible? Since one of their other wins was against Elon, I would think they can only count one of those two for the purposes of bowl eligibility. Or am I messing up the rule?

Re: Duke Bowl Game Discussion

As I understand it, if they beat ODU they are bowl-eligible. Watch them lose this week though.