Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

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Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:01 pm

Image

Miami looked bad against the two real opponents they played, but both were on the road (at Louisville, at Nebraska).
Duke came close to expectations or obliterated them in each game they played, but it was probably the worst schedule you could possibly create.
Hard to get a read on what should happen in this game. Duke should be anything from 1 to 10 point underdogs.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby dukeberto » Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:37 pm

Duke up to 23 in Coaches poll. I expect to be in the 22-25 range in the AP poll when it comes out
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby dkst0426 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:45 pm

dukeberto wrote:Duke up to 23 in Coaches poll. I expect to be in the 22-25 range in the AP poll when it comes out

#26.

And I guess SeanMayTriedToEatMe is the only one allowed to start game threads? Just making sure for future reference.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby dukeberto » Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:06 pm

At least until we lose
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:06 pm

We go with this until the mojo runs out, dkst. That will likely be this week, so you take the reigns after that.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby dukeberto » Sun Sep 21, 2014 9:44 pm

Open as a 5.5 dog, already been bet up to 4.5. Will be interesting to see the movement throughout the week
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:26 pm

dukeberto wrote:Open as a 5.5 dog, already been bet up to 4.5. Will be interesting to see the movement throughout the week


Can we chalk up the early movement to your betting habit?
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby dukeberto » Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:57 am

I appreciate that you called it a habit
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:42 am

Looks like this opened at 6 at some places and has moved to 3.5-4 everywhere. This is nice. Duke football is considered to be equal to Miami football on a neutral field now. A lot of it is still coaching and not talent, but the talent gap should continue to close. Duke is currently less than a point behind Miami and VT on Sagarin Predictor and significantly ahead of everyone else in the Coastal, even GT. Duke is close to actually being the best football program in the Coastal. Until they get blown out on Saturday.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:48 am

Duke has played the 190th strongest schedule in the country, including FCS teams. The only FBS team that has played an easier schedule than Duke is Air Force. Duke's strongest opponent was Kansas.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby DrKlahn » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:55 am

Sagarin considers every team in the Coastal to be between 41 (Duke) and 62 (Virginia) nationally.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:36 pm

SeanMayTriedToEatMe wrote:Duke has played the 190th strongest schedule in the country, including FCS teams. The only FBS team that has played an easier schedule than Duke is Air Force. Duke's strongest opponent was Kansas.


Wow. But I like starting 4-0 so I hope we do this every year.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby Rollins » Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:46 pm

I have no read on this game.

The two things I think will matter most are Boone's accuracy and Miami's swagger.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby DrKlahn » Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:48 pm

I know we would lose if this was basketball, but I trust our football program.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:46 am

Projected spreads for the rest of the season:

@GT - GT by 3
UVA - Duke by 9
@Pitt - Pitt by 1
@Cuse - Cuse by 2
VT - Duke by 2.5
UNC - Duke by 6.5
Wake - Duke by 20.5

Apparently, Wake can barely field a team these days and Greg Paulus inspired Syracuse to become a relevant program again. I raised the GT line by 2 from what Sagarin says, since I don't think anyone is taking Duke at anything less than a 3-point underdog in that one. I lowered the VT and UNC lines by a half point each (significant with 3 and 7 being sticky numbers in football odds) due to the perceived talent gap.

UVA and Wake would get Duke to a bowl game even if those are the only games Duke can win. In the close calls (@Miami, @GT, @Pitt, @Cuse, VT), I would just hope for Duke to win 2 out of 5 (underdogs in 4 out of 5).

I can't process Duke as a touchdown favorite against UNC yet. It still doesn't feel like UNC should ever be an easy win for Duke football.

8-9 wins seems most likely, with 8 more likely than 9. 7 should be the floor. Undefeated is the ceiling. @Miami is the toughest game of the season.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:54 am

It's possible Duke jumps into the top 15 on both polls if they win this game. If they lose badly, I would have no problem with everyone dropping Duke off their ballots entirely.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby Topher » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:23 pm



If you have VIP (yall prolly don't) then you can read all of it. Otherwise, the gist is Miami is well below average as a home favorite under Golden. Duke is great as road underdog.
"I'll do what I can to help y'all. But, the game's out there, and it's play or get played. That simple." -- Tyler Thornton
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:13 pm

SeanMayTriedToEatMe wrote:Projected spreads for the rest of the season:

@GT - GT by 3
UVA - Duke by 9
@Pitt - Pitt by 1
@Cuse - Cuse by 2
VT - Duke by 2.5
UNC - Duke by 6.5
Wake - Duke by 20.5

Apparently, Wake can barely field a team these days and Greg Paulus inspired Syracuse to become a relevant program again. I raised the GT line by 2 from what Sagarin says, since I don't think anyone is taking Duke at anything less than a 3-point underdog in that one. I lowered the VT and UNC lines by a half point each (significant with 3 and 7 being sticky numbers in football odds) due to the perceived talent gap.

UVA and Wake would get Duke to a bowl game even if those are the only games Duke can win. In the close calls (@Miami, @GT, @Pitt, @Cuse, VT), I would just hope for Duke to win 2 out of 5 (underdogs in 4 out of 5).

I can't process Duke as a touchdown favorite against UNC yet. It still doesn't feel like UNC should ever be an easy win for Duke football.

8-9 wins seems most likely, with 8 more likely than 9. 7 should be the floor. Undefeated is the ceiling. @Miami is the toughest game of the season.



The UVA line seems high with the way they're playing this year. Tough games against ranked teams like UCLA and BYU and the win over L'ville. Maybe their talent, which has actually been pretty good under London (and was great this past year), is finally starting to click despite their horrible coach.

I am surprised we would be dogs against a Syracuse team that was blown out by MD and won by a point over Villanova.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby rhfarmer » Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:21 pm

I agree with the UVa points. They have played a legit schedule, and I would expect Duke to lode to this Uva team.

ETA and by "lode" I mean "lose"
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby Thain » Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:22 pm

We win
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:49 am

Miami is now a 6.5 or 7 point favorite. The usual "no one believes in us" line movement for Duke.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:00 am



Sirk is our best QB for throwing and running.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:06 am

Competing with Duke/Miami in the prime time slot will be two other ACC private schools - Notre Dame (-9.5) at Syracuse on ABC, the Game Day game - Missouri at South Carolina (-5) on ESPN, and ACC scrubs - UNC at Clemson (-14.5) on ESPNU.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby Pantone287 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:49 pm

How the hell is ND only favorite by 9.5 over Syracuse? I still don't get why anyone thinks they are anything other than extremely mediocre.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby aiw » Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:49 pm

This game isn't going to end well.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:29 pm

Late money on Duke. All the way back to Miami by 3.5.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:29 pm



Game.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby dkst0426 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:17 pm

4th-and-19, and Fields blowing his coverage. But for those two plays, we were somehow still in this. That's where stats don't tell the full story. Guess that says more about Miami's own ineptitude, since we basically tried to hand this to them several times.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby DurhamSon » Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:19 pm

dkst I guess you get your shot to start the GT thread. Better win though or it will be SMTTEM's job forever
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:39 am



Proud to have this classy guy as my QB.
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Re: Duke at Miami - Sat 9/27 7:30pm ET ESPN2

Postby CK86 » Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:40 am

Boone had a rough day to say the least.
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