Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU)

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Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU)

Postby DrKlahn » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:20 pm

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I know Duke is playing well but this seems like a tough ask to me. Yes, Pittsburgh has struggled this year, but there is still NFL-caliber talent up and down their roster, including 8-time Pro Bowler Troy Polamalu and former Duke target Ben Roethlisberger. Not surprisingly, Duke struggled against this team last year, giving up 58 points. I just don't see how a team of college players stands a chance against these guys, although I find it encouraging that the Jacksonville Jaguars kept it within 8.

Good thing we have a bye week to prepare.
Last edited by DrKlahn on Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:11 pm

Duke should be 3-point underdogs. Another game where +1 turnover margin probably determines the game and +2 almost definitely does.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:40 pm

Yeah, not sure how they lost to Akron. They are 4 point favorites against a fading GT next week at home, so SMMTEM's guess seems right to me. Regarding the rest of our schedule, seems to me that Pitt, VT and UNC are all on about the same level (UNC has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of those 3), Syracuse is a notch below those three, and then WF is several notches below Syracuse.

Unfortunately, for the purposes of the Coastal, our three most important games are Pitt, VT and UNC.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:04 am

ACC Coastal schedules and projected wins and losses:

Duke (currently 2-1)
@Pitt - L
@Syracuse - W
VT - W
UNC - W
WF - W
6-2

UVA (currently 2-1)
UNC - W
@GT - L
@FSU - L
Miami - W
@VT - L
4-4

Pitt (currently 2-1)
GT - W
Duke - W
@UNC - L
Syracuse - W
@Miami - L
5-3

GT (currently 2-2)
@Pitt - L
UVA - W
@NCSU - W
Clemson - L
4-4

VT (currently 1-2)
Miami - W
BC - W
@Duke - L
@WF - W
UVA - W
5-3

Miami (currently 1-2)
@VT - L
UNC - W
FSU - L
@UVA - L
Pitt - W
3-5

UNC (currently 1-2)
@UVA - L
@Miami - L
Pitt - W
@Duke - L
NCSU - W
3-5

Projected final standings:

1 Duke (6-2)
2 Pitt (5-3) (head to head tiebreaker over VT)
3 VT (5-3)
4 GT (4-4) (head to head tiebreaker over UVA)
5 UVA (4-4)
6 Miami (3-5) (head to head tiebreaker over UNC)
7 UNC (3-5)

There are two huge games this week for Duke which don't involve Duke.

1. We want Miami to win at VT as 1.5-point underdogs on Thursday.
VT realistically controls its own destiny because they can realistically win out. Getting WF as one of your road games is a big, underrated advantage. If VT wins this week, the VT at Duke game essentially becomes a must-win for both teams, rather than just a must-win for VT. Miami isn't much of a threat to Duke even though they own the head to head vs Duke; assuming Miami loses to FSU, Miami can finish no better than 5-3, and they are probably not winning out aside from the FSU game.

2. We want GT to win at Pitt as 3.5-point underdogs on Saturday.
Even if Pitt wins, Duke does not need to beat Pitt to win the division, but that worst case scenario would leave Duke needing to win out to have a realistic chance to win the division. Pitt may lose 2 of their last 3 - unlike VT, their schedule is not favorable - but they are not realistically going to lose all 3, especially if they're good enough to beat GT and Duke.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:06 am

Thanks for laying that out. I would have had no idea who to root for since everyone is 2-1 or 1-2. Unfortunately Pitt has a top 40 rushing defense in YPC which should help against GT, but hopefully GT can rebound from the last two weeks.

I don't really like the second bye coming now, with 5 games left to play. Also, realized that VT will have 2 weeks to prepare for Duke. Would prefer that they come into our game despondent and out of the race given the talent advantage that they'll have.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:33 pm

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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby DrKlahn » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:27 pm

This is good. Duke owned the ESPNU afternoon time slots last year.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby dkst0426 » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:26 pm

SeanMayTriedToEatMe wrote:1. We want Miami to win at VT as 1.5-point underdogs on Thursday.
VT realistically controls its own destiny because they can realistically win out. Getting WF as one of your road games is a big, underrated advantage. If VT wins this week, the VT at Duke game essentially becomes a must-win for both teams, rather than just a must-win for VT. Miami isn't much of a threat to Duke even though they own the head to head vs Duke; assuming Miami loses to FSU, Miami can finish no better than 5-3, and they are probably not winning out aside from the FSU game.

Huzzah!
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, time TBA, Heinz Field

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:02 pm

ACC Coastal schedules and projected wins and losses:

Duke (currently 2-1)
@Pitt - L
@Syracuse - W
VT - W
UNC - L
WF - W
5-3

UVA (currently 2-2)
@GT - L
@FSU - L
Miami - L
@VT - L
2-6

Pitt (currently 2-2)
Duke - W
@UNC - L
Syracuse - W
@Miami - L
4-4

GT (currently 3-2)
UVA - W
@NCSU - W
Clemson - L
5-3

VT (currently 1-3)
BC - W
@Duke - L
@WF - W
UVA - W
4-4

Miami (currently 2-2)
UNC - W
FSU - L
@UVA - W
Pitt - W
5-3

UNC (currently 2-2)
@Miami - L
Pitt - W
@Duke - W
NCSU - W
5-3

Projected final standings:

1 Miami (5-3)
2 UNC (5-3)
3 Duke (5-3)
4 GT (5-3)
5 Pitt (4-4)
6 VT (4-4)
7 UVA (2-6)

Note that one projected result goes against what the odds will say - I am projecting UNC to win at Duke. I am not sure how the 4-way tie breaker would shake out based on all of this, but I'm pretty sure Miami would be #1.

In the ideal scenario, FSU loses at Louisville and loses at Miami, Clemson wins out, Miami loses to UNC and Duke wins out. This gives Duke the Coastal and a winnable ACC championship game vs Clemson. However, it's impossible for any Duke fan to root for all of that each step of the way, since it would mean rooting for UNC to have a good shot at winning the Coastal for a few weeks.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:44 pm

Duke opened at a 1 point favorite, is now a 1 point dog.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby dukeberto » Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:38 am

What else would you expect from the No. 24 team in the nation?
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:32 am

Duke now a 4 point underdog. Line has moved a full 5 points since it opened.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby Rollins » Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:10 pm

Pitt's team is bigger and stronger than Duke's.

It would be nice if Duke's passing game could do anything.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby dukeberto » Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:20 pm

There is some speculation that the line has moved that much due to the weather forecast for Saturday. I just think the public still isn't giving Duke any respect, even though we are ranked.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:00 am

I'm trying to pick apart why Sagarin overrates Duke in this matchup so much relative to the public. Sagarin has Duke favored by 3 at Pitt. Where has Duke been luckier than its opponents this season? Close wins are irrelevant as a luck element in this, since Sagarin predictor only cares about margin of victory, rather than wins and losses.

1. Duke has 2 fumbles lost out of 9 fumbles, compared with 5 fumbles lost out of 9 fumbles for opponents. Very lucky.

2. Duke has thrown 3 interceptions, compared with 8 for opponents. However, Duke has had 11 sacks compared to 4 sacks by opponents, so the interceptions are roughly in line with the QB pressure. Not too lucky.

3. Duke has 5 total turnovers, compared with 13 for opponents. Somewhat lucky.

4. Duke has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns, compared with 0 for opponents. Lucky.

5. Duke is 8-16 on 4th down, compared with 3-15 for opponents. Very lucky.

6. Duke is 10-10 FG and 29-29 XPT, compared with 9-13 FG and 7-9 XPT for opponents. Somewhat lucky.

7. Duke is 0-0 on 2pt conversions, compared with 0-3 for opponents. Lucky.

Taken as a whole, that's a lot of luck for Duke. I think that's a decent explanation for the consistent Vegas underrating of Duke compared to computers. Hopefully the regression all comes at once vs Wake Forest, if it happens at all (a football season provides small enough samples for all these luck elements, such that in-season regression is not inevitable like in baseball or basketball). Duke can survive an extremely unlucky home game vs Wake.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby DrKlahn » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:19 am

on #1, how many of those fumbles were actually failed snaps in the Miami game? Like 4 or 5? I would guess those are easier for the offensive team to recover, and not true 50/50 balls like most fumbles.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby Topher » Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:18 pm

Massey has Duke favored by 7 (!!!)

TeamRankings has Duke +3 (53.5% to cover)

NumberFire has Duke +1.2 (58.5% to cover)
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby rhfarmer » Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:52 pm

Unreal game. I was yelling into my phone at Harris Teeter during the 4th qtr and OT.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby DurhamSon » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:11 pm

This is the only one that made me laugh:

creighton = cretin
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:14 pm

Duke is now 16-5-1 against the spread in the past two seasons, best in the country. 11-3 last year, 5-2-1 this year.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby aiw » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:31 pm

Duke had the ball for 18:52 of regulation.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby DurhamSon » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:52 pm

creighton = cretin
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby DukeNukem05 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:54 pm

Haha, that's a good question.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby aiw » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:55 pm

If she's anything like him, she'd tooth you to death
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:41 pm

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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby aiw » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:51 pm

Front page espn.com

Image
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby aiw » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:16 pm

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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby DrKlahn » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:18 pm

That's pretty good.

It really is amazing, this.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby StopThePumpFakesShav » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:41 pm

Amazing game. I want to read the chat transcript. Credit to Boone for throwing a good deep ball today. Seems it was either deep balls or short passes/bubble screens. He's much better with the deep ball than the 15 yard passes over the middle.
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby CK86 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:00 pm

I got a free ticket to the Nebraska game so I was watching the Duke game from the tailgate. So glad to see the Devils were able to win. Still can't believe how great Cutcliffe and his staff are to make Duke football relevant. I'm still in the awe phase, like holy **** they've got 15-3 in their last 18. It blows my mind how far they've come. Take care of Syracuse next week and let's keep this run going!
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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:17 pm

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Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU

Postby CK86 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 12:54 pm

Love that the kicker's last name is "Blewitt".
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