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Duke Football 2015-2016 Discussion

StopThePumpFakesShav

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Apr 1, 2013
Messages
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I think we should have this thread.

Duke opened as a 13.5 point favorite for its road game with Tulane, but the line has moved down to -9.5 at the moment. This game is Thurs 9/3 at 9:30pm BTW.
 
Schedule

Duke Sagarin Predictor rating at 2015 end: 75.98

Thursday, September 3
at Tulane (Sagarin Predictor rating at 2015 end: 54.08)
9:30pm ET CBSSN

Saturday, September 12
NC Central (41.89)
6:00pm ET ESPN3

Saturday, September 19
Northwestern (70.02)
12:30pm ET
ACCN/ESPN3

Saturday, September 26
Georgia Tech (87.33)
TBA

Saturday, October 3
Boston College (75.45)
TBA

Saturday, October 10
at Army (51.29)
12:00pm ET CBSSN

Saturday, October 17
no game

Saturday, October 24
at Virginia Tech (76.62)
TBA

Saturday, October 31
Miami (76.92)
TBA

Saturday, November 7
at North Carolina (67.53)
TBA

Saturday, November 14
Pittsburgh (74.02)
TBA

Saturday, November 21
at Virginia (74.31)
TBA

Saturday, November 28
at Wake Forest (57.40)
TBA

Saturday, December 5
ACC Championship Game - Charlotte, NC
TBA
 
I don't know anything about these teams. I don't know which players are returning, how good the quarterbacks are, who the coaches are, etc., but based on Sagarin to end last season and based on Sirk being better this season than Boone was last season, I would put Duke's chances of winning these games into these categories:

Heavy Underdogs against
Georgia Tech

Underdogs against
at Virginia Tech

Toss Up
Miami
at North Carolina
at Virginia

Favorites against
Boston College
Pittsburgh

Heavy Favorites against
at Tulane
NC Central
Northwestern
at Army
at Wake Forest

Splitting at Georgia Tech and at Virginia Tech would be good and not completely unrealistic. Going 2-3 in the toss up/underdog games is probably the expected result. Going 6-1 in the favorite games seems realistic, but 5-2 is probably the expected result.

This would put Duke at an expected 7-5, but with a reasonable shot at 9-3. I think 6-6 is the floor.
 
I blame Shav starting this thread for the string of injuries that just decimated our RB corps.
 
Looking at Coastal schedules to see if Duke has any chance of going to the ACC title game...

Not too relevant, but Georgia Tech plays at Notre Dame the week before Georgia Tech plays at Duke, so that might help Duke with intangibles. Also, no Coastal opponent has a bye week before playing Duke.

GT has at Clemson, vs FSU and at Miami as potentially difficult ACC games.

Miami has at FSU, vs Clemson, GT and at Pitt.

Everyone else in the Coastal avoids both Clemson and FSU.

6-2 should win the Coastal outright, and 5-3 should get Duke into a tie-breaker. That seems plausible. Whether we prefer to get smoked in the ACC title game over not playing a game that week is another question.
 
Is anyone else scared by how tiny our front 7 (including Cash) is this year? I've never paid attention to previous seasons, so maybe Duke has always been this small. But man, we are tiny up front. 235, 270, 290, 244, 210, 215, 210. I'm afraid Tulane's offensive line is going to push us around even worse than last year.
 
Yeah, I feel like we're in for a step back this season, that being one of the reasons. The other two being (i) loss of one great and one very good offensive linemen and (ii) no elite WR.

(ii) offset slightly by return of very good TE.

Loss of our starting qb not even a concern.
 
Cut's molding the defense after TCU's. Basically a modified 4-2-5 that's really a 2-2-7.
 
Former Duke TE Garrett Utt posted a $1000 bet on Duke -7.5 on Facebook for the world to see. Let's hope he doesn't regret that come Friday 1AM
 
Line down to 7 points. Has moved 6.5 points since opening. That's about the same as going from a bad NFL starter to Anthony Boone. Some Duke players must have died.
 
well if it falls to -6 I'll feel pretty good. Apparently our record ATS at +6 to -6 is unbelievable. I believe the only game we haven't covered when the spread was in that range was against VaTech last year, and that was a fluky ass game.
 
I feel pretty stupid for being concerned about the Tulane game. The defense played much better than I thought they would.
 
Duke moved up to #35 on Sagarin Predictor after the first week of the season was accounted for. That's two spots ahead of Northwestern. Sagarin would make Duke 44-point favorites against NC Central. Sagarin would make Duke 3-point favorites against Northwestern and 3-point underdogs against Georgia Tech.

ACC rankings on Sagarin:

12 Florida State
15 Clemson
18 Georgia Tech
29 Miami
32 Louisville
35 Duke
44 Virginia Tech
47 North Carolina
49 NC State
54 Pittsburgh
56 Boston College
58 Syracuse
66 Virginia
82 Wake Forest
 
NC Central spread got down to 32 by kickoff. People still hate Duke. Should be favored by a decent amount over Northwestern.
 

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