Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

Duke Football 2016-17 Discussion

Can they find 1 more win? I don't think 1-11 will get it done with keeping recruits and good freshmen around.
 



I guess it all makes sense...you can't expect that we will always be able to replace talent like Cockrell and Cash and Laken and Ross Martin
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Pitt, UNC, Miami, L'Ville seem like losses. All of those teams are probably better than this ND team.

So, need it to be Army, UVA and GTech and steal one of the above to get to a bowl. Probably not happening, but getting a win in South Bend is such a big deal in the big picture that it doesnt much matter whether they go 5-7 or to some shit bowl on FS1. Just keep the recruits.
 
Duke would probably get in a bowl at 5-7, right? 5-7 team priority is based on APR, so at 5-7 Duke would get in if the number of eligible teams is short just 1. (I don't know the actual APR stats, but I assume maybe only one or two teams could beat Duke in that tiebreaker.)
 
I don't think we need to make a bowl. Just make sure that no recruits watch our games against Louisville and UNC. Take them all out to see Sully that night. Twice.
 
The tie breaker for 5-7 teams is even more favorable to Duke than that. Only the top 5 APR teams are considered first. Last year, those 5 were Wisconsin, Northwestern, Duke, Michigan, Stanford (all hit 6+ wins anyway). Assuming it's a similar group this season, Wisconsin, Michigan and Stanford will be irrelevant again. Duke and Northwestern would be the only 5-7 teams considered at first.

The sad part is, in the extremely unlikely event that there's only one spot for a 5-7 team, Duke's loss to Northwestern head to head would probably end up costing Duke the bowl bid. It's also possible that Virginia has entered the top 5 in APR, in which case the game against Virginia could essentially be for a bowl tie breaker. It's much more likely, though, that Duke would make it to a bowl at 5-7.

Army and Virginia are must wins. Then pull out 1 of the other 5, which should have a good chance of happening. Cut's new recruiting pitch: "Duke's academic excellence will allow you to go to the Idaho Bowl even if we only have 5 wins."
 
Just when I had reverted back to 200-ish Duke football fandom. I am certain that my heart will be broken several times this season.
 
Rating the biggest wins in Duke Football history:

6) 1989 Victory Bell 41-0 over North Carolina *
5) 2016 Regular Season 38-35 over Notre Dame
4) 2015 Pinstripe Bowl 44-41 over Indiana
3) 1955 Orange Bowl 34-7 over Nebraska
2) 1945 Sugar Bowl 29-26 over Alabama
1) 1961 Cotton Bowl 7-6 over Arkansas

*Really any win over North Carolina, but this one stands out.
 
Duke is favored at home over Virginia by 3.5 points.

Two football programs equal in quality with similar paths to getting here. Duke being shit until an incredible upset last week. Virginia being shit until an incredible blowout as the underdog last week. Epic.
 
Sagarin projected spreads for the remaining games:

-9.5 v Virginia
-3.5 v Army
+24 @Louisville
+7.5 @Georgia Tech
+9.5 v Virginia Tech
+5.5 v North Carolina
+8 @Pittsburgh
+15 @Miami

Given that Sagarin is overrating Duke relative to Virginia by 6 points, it's safe to assume the rest of the spreads are being significantly favorable to Duke as well. Then again, Duke has a QB who should improve more than all other non-freshman QBs on the schedule.

If we consider @Louisville and @Miami to be completely unwinnable, then Duke's most reasonable path to a bowl is winning the next two vs Virginia and Army and winning 1 out of 4 among @GT, VT, UNC, @Pitt.
 
Most likely wins are, in order, @GT, VT, @Pitt, UNC
 

Chat users

  • No one is chatting at the moment.

Chat rooms

  • General chit-chat 0
  • NCAA Tournament (Non-Duke) 0
  • Duke vs Houston 0

Forum statistics

Threads
1,056
Messages
417,223
Members
623
Latest member
ScheySchey30
Back
Top Bottom