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2013 NCAA Tournament

Better yet, does Luke Winn have a kind of grab bag thing? If so, I'll just email him the question. He's probably already done it.
 
Q: Is there a positive correlation between Plumblefucks and lack of tournament success?
 
2004 was kind of a banner year for Kenpom. Top three teams made the Final Four. GT was #7. OTOH, their offense was #25. 2005 was also good. Seems like he's gotten less accurate over time.
 
In 2006, Kenpom looked scarily accurate by predicting 3-seed Florida to win it. They were the perfect balance of what you'd want from a title team.

However, that year the #28, #49, and #50 offenses got to the Final Four. But if anything this strengthens the argument for Kenpom since two of those teams had elite defenses and even the Cinderella (George Mason) was grossly underseeded.
 
I'm loving St. Mary's over Memphis right now. Almost too much. Now, I don't want to pick them for fear of being overconfident.
 
rome8180 said:
In 2006, Kenpom looked scarily accurate by predicting 3-seed Florida to win it. They were the perfect balance of what you'd want from a title team.

However, that year the #28, #49, and #50 offenses got to the Final Four. But if anything this strengthens the argument for Kenpom since two of those teams had elite defenses and even the Cinderella (George Mason) was grossly underseeded.
Click to expand...
Is there a way to see what kenpom's ratings were in previous seasons before that season's tournament? I know people say he had Florida #1, but the only numbers I can see are obviously updated with the tournament results.
 
physicsfactor said:
rome8180 said:
In 2006, Kenpom looked scarily accurate by predicting 3-seed Florida to win it. They were the perfect balance of what you'd want from a title team.

However, that year the #28, #49, and #50 offenses got to the Final Four. But if anything this strengthens the argument for Kenpom since two of those teams had elite defenses and even the Cinderella (George Mason) was grossly underseeded.
Click to expand...
Is there a way to see what kenpom's ratings were in previous seasons before that season's tournament? I know people say he had Florida #1, but the only numbers I can see are obviously updated with the tournament results.
Click to expand...


For the last couple of seasons, on the team page (i.e., the team schedule view), there is a column showing the team's ranking going into each game. It's the second column from the left, under the heading "Rk". That feature doesn't go back to 2006.
 
I mean, I'm sure great tournament performance affects it. But it's only six games. So chances are they weren't too far off from the #1 spot at the beginning of the tournament.
 
That's probably right. To give you an idea of how much a team can move, UConn in 2011 started the tournament 16th and ended it 10th. Of course, winning games doesn't necessarily improve your rating especially if the teams you are beating are worse than you. In the case of UConn, they had one (Kentucky), maybe two (San Diego St) upsets the entire way.
 
Here's another (unfortunate) example from 2011: Duke went into the Sweet 16 round ranked #2, got waxed to holy hell by a team that was #30 heading into the game, and stayed #2 in the final rankings.

Of course, the tightness in the rankings in a given year can affect this.
 
To conclude my trilogy, it is easier for teams lower down the rankings to move a lot. The biggest move I can find from the last 2 tournaments is (no surprise) VCU, which started the tournament at #84, got as high as #49, and ended up #52. That goes to show how epic it was to pull off 4 double digit wins over higher ranked teams in 5 games, including 2 top-10 teams.
 
Thanks, Klahn. I don't have access to the team pages.

I'm pretty sure Butler moved up considerably in 2010.

Anyway, I just wondered because like I said, I often hear people say that he "predicted" Florida that year, but I'm not sure if that is actually the case.
 
Don't ask me how I found this, but Florida was not the log5 pick in 2006. They did get some special mention though:

Minneapolis

Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
1 Villanova 96.12% 68.64% 50.72% 32.01% 17.73% 9.01%
3 Florida 83.38% 59.56% 34.03% 18.37% 8.85% 3.86%
2 Ohio State 90.75% 56.79% 32.66% 17.11% 7.97% 3.34%
7 Georgetown 63.18% 29.18% 14.57% 6.53% 2.55% 0.88%
4 Boston College 65.04% 38.44% 14.23% 6.12% 2.19% 0.69%
8 Arizona 56.56% 18.82% 10.58% 4.65% 1.70% 0.55%
5 Nevada 75.40% 39.42% 13.54% 5.44% 1.81% 0.53%
6 Oklahoma 63.10% 24.48% 9.68% 3.59% 1.14% 0.31%
9 Wisconsin 43.44% 12.18% 6.07% 2.29% 0.71% 0.19%
10 Northern Iowa 36.82% 12.64% 4.75% 1.56% 0.43% 0.10%
13 Pacific 34.96% 15.55% 3.82% 1.12% 0.26% 0.05%
11 UW-Milwaukee 36.90% 10.33% 2.89% 0.76% 0.17% 0.03%
14 So. Alabama 16.62% 5.62% 1.23% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%
12 Montana 24.60% 6.59% 1.00% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
15 Davidson 9.25% 1.39% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Monm./Hamp. 3.88% 0.36% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Some would use Florida’s tournament history to disqualify them from a run to Indy. But don’t hold last season against them - they got the shaft by drawing a (then-)highly-underrated Villanova in the second round. With questions about the first and third picks in this region - the health of Villanova’s Allan Ray and the complete loss of shooting touch by Ohio State’s Je’Kel Foster - this is a good opportunity for Billy Donovan to restore his post-season image.
Click to expand...
 
Also, this:

Atlanta

Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
2 Texas 92.83% 75.00% 55.11% 34.80% 22.16% 14.05%
1 Duke 97.45% 80.24% 57.34% 32.83% 19.71% 11.77%
3 Iowa 87.08% 54.50% 21.90% 9.85% 4.46% 1.99%
4 LSU 77.23% 44.15% 17.54% 7.10% 3.03% 1.28%
12 Texas A&M 62.84% 33.86% 12.73% 4.88% 1.97% 0.79%
6 West Virginia 59.41% 27.53% 8.99% 3.31% 1.22% 0.44%
7 California 51.90% 12.36% 5.13% 1.62% 0.51% 0.16%
10 NC State 48.10% 10.88% 4.32% 1.30% 0.39% 0.12%
5 Syracuse 37.16% 15.47% 4.22% 1.17% 0.34% 0.10%
11 So. Illinois 40.59% 15.37% 3.94% 1.14% 0.33% 0.09%
9 UNC-Wilm. 53.50% 10.92% 4.07% 1.04% 0.28% 0.07%
8 George Wash. 46.50% 8.56% 2.92% 0.67% 0.16% 0.04%
13 Iona 22.77% 6.52% 1.17% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
15 Penn 7.17% 1.76% 0.33% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
14 N'western St. 12.92% 2.60% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Southern 2.55% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Atlanta presents the most obvious regional final in the bracket, with a Duke/Texas rematch seemingly inevitable. (Although, LSU may have a say in that.) Those of you that feel Duke should win based on its earlier 31-point drubbing of the Longhorns are using one game as evidence at the exclusion of the other 25-30 which say that this game would be at least a tossup. Interesting that the 12-seed comes in as the fifth-likeliest team to get to Indy. I think that speaks more to the weakness of seeds 5+ in the bracket.
Click to expand...
 
This is everything you guys are looking for:
http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/arch/

Seriously, someone should use the Kenpom efficiencies pre-Tournament and figure out the correlation between offense vs performance and defense vs performance. From what I know, no one has ever taken the time to do this. It would take some hours, but probably worth it to put on the Duke-Forum blog and copyright the work.

Oh, by "copyright" I mean "do nothing." It's copyrighted when you put it online.
 
Bobby Hurley picked Duke over Florida. Immediately loses all credibility, which is the fate Bilas and JWill try to avoid all the time.
 
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