Game Thread [2021-22] Duke at Florida State

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Tuesday, January 18, 9pm ET, ESPN
Donald L. Tucker Center

Duke will hope to survive one of their 2-3 toughest games left before the NCAA Tournament. Duke should be favored by around 4 points.

 

[Pantone287]

Looks like kind of a dream Mark matchup. They start a freshman who is 7'1, 190, and play a 7'4 guy backup minutes as well. Although the 7'1 guy (John Butler) is somehow shooting 44% from 3 on a 56% 3PAr??

 

[aiw]

This is a telegraphed L

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

6-9 5th year senior Malik Osborne is their scariest offensive threat, and is being drastically underutilized. It’s possible FSU will decide this is finally the game to ride him to a season-defining win. If they crank his usage up to a more appropriate 25-30% instead of his usual 17%, that alone could make up the expected gap between the two teams.

Some of Osborne’s numbers, to paint the picture of how efficient he is:

53% 2pt
41% 3pt
84% ft
.48 3PA/FGA
.59 FTA/FGA
64% TS
7.8% TO
138 ORtg
17% Usage

He gets to the line about 50% more frequently than the best player on Duke at getting to the line (Banchero), while also taking a lot of 3s. He shoots well from everywhere.

If FSU starts making a concerted effort to actually win basketball games, they’ll take possessions away from the mediocre-at-best Matthew Cleveland and Caleb Mills, and they’ll let Osborne lead them to wins. That’s a nightmare scenario for Duke.

 

[Devilsforlife]

First game at the Tucker Center since the Cam Reddish game winning 3 at the buzzer in early 2019. This one is definitely a loss.

 

[aiw]

He didn't play today in their win for unclear reasons

 

[aiw]

So, he is wearing a boot due to a sprained ankle

FSU played a walk on 15 minutes today and won on the road

 

[aiw]

They also played another guy 13 minutes who had played 1 minute in the last 5 games

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Looks like kind of a dream Mark matchup. They start a freshman who is 7'1, 190, and play a 7'4 guy backup minutes as well. Although the 7'1 guy (John Butler) is somehow shooting 44% from 3 on a 56% 3PAr??

Watched FSU a couple times this year. He’s a mobile, scrawny shooter. They like to use him at the top of their different defensive looks (1-3-1, various press looks). Don’t be deceived by his height - he is NOTHING like a ‘center’ IMO.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This was a surprisingly not-bad write up before FSU’s last game, which I found from googling “Malik Osborne injury”:

Game Preview: Florida State at Syracuse | Sports Illustrated Florida State Seminoles News, Analysis and More

www.si.com

He was probable for that last game, so FSU was taking the extra precaution to make sure he would be 100% for Duke, since this game is their entire season. Also noticed this:

Granted, every zone defense has gotten FSU out of rhythm. They're scoring just 0.78 points per possession against zone which is in the bottom-15% nationally amongst all teams. They're also shooting just 37.3% from the floor against the zone, which is less than ideal.

I assume FSU is much more comfortable against defenses that have the opposite principles of 2-3 zone. They have 3 players in their main lineup and a key bench player who are all chucking 3s at worse than 32% this season. An opposing coach who chases FSU’s bad shooters off the arc to give them 2 on 1s against Mark in the paint, with offensive rebounders flying to the rim when Mark tries to contest, would be out of his mind.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Our guys just need to try harder.

 

[physicsfactor]

Our guys just need to try harder.

And GRAB THE BALL!

 

[aiw]

"I doubt very seriously if (Malik Osborne) will be available. Malik's been struggling since before the Wake Forest game. He turned his ankle and didn't practice at all. He only played in games. He had an MRI and he's had more examinations but he's been walking around with a boot on." -- FSU Coach Leonard Hamilton on post player Malik Osborne's availability

From Rowe's article

 

[aiw]

Gamesmanship?

 

[torontoduke]

It doesn't matter, because some rat bastard we've never heard of will drop 25 on Duke.

 

[DrKlahn]

Duke fans need to prepare for what a long 2 months this will be. Every night is someone’s resume game.

 

[rhfarmer]

No mask requirement either.

 

[rome8180]

No mask requirement either.

Looking forward to a humiliating loss followed by another covid pause.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is favored by 4.5. O/U 145.

 

[Hammy-O]

I don’t like a lot of opposing coaches but I like Bunny Colvin.