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Game Thread [2021-22] Duke at Wake Forest

What’s your prediction, if this game is played?


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  • Poll closed .

The box score that changed the college basketball landscape. AJ Griffin: 36 minutes. Jeremy Roach: 19 minutes.

Griffin did what any rational person would’ve expected. More amazing numbers with more playing time. No more needs to be said about this NPOY-caliber offensive monster. The last people in the world to understand how good he is - the Duke coaching staff - get it now, with plenty of time to spare before March.

The positive effect of a more limited role on Roach’s game was less predictable. Freed from the pressures of being a 36-minute-per-game leader of a title contender and put in the more appropriate position of guy who only plays because good players need rest, he had his best game of the season. 19 minutes, 5 points, 1 assist, 2 steals, 0 turnovers, 63% true shooting, 2nd best defensive rating behind Williams (tied with Moore). That is a pristine line for a lesser, backup version of Tyler Thornton, which is probably Roach’s ceiling for his sophomore year.

Banchero wasn’t extremely efficient, but he was forced to absorb a lot of possessions (32%) at a time when Moore is obviously taking a backseat in shotmaking as he recovers from a nasty bout with COVID. Despite his ailments, Moore’s defensive rating was an impressive 2nd best while guarding Wake’s best player all game.

Williams continues to put up monster defensive rebounding and block rates, together with bad offense. It’s clear he shouldn’t be running post ups at all. Limit his offense to touches within 1 foot of the rim, and the team will be much better off.
 
It'll be interesting to see if Roach's diminished role will continue when K returns to the sidelines. The new starting five went +21 last night.
Do we know that the new starting 5 was Scheyer's decision? Based on the timing of everything, it seemed to me like K's decision that Scheyer simply followed through with.
 
Also, where do you find the +/- for individual lineups? Obviously all other lineups combined to go -9. But I'd be curious about which ones were the worst. I would think that terrible 1st half lineup was one of them. I believe they alone were outscored by 9.
 
Roach was not great in the 1st half but really good in the 2nd. I feel like he could have had 2-3 more assists but the recipients of his passes got fouled or just missed. He's pretty good at getting to the rim just has been awful finishing but pretty much every time last night he made a great pass off penetration. I think minutes should vaccilate between him and Keels depending on whoever is playing the least bad.
 
Last night, I was putting the kids to bed so didn't have a chance to check in on the game until about 7-8 minutes to go in the 1st.

I checked the gamecast on ESPN, and Duke was down 18-17 IIRC, and AJ had taken 1 fucking shot. I remember just being baffled at how this could possibly happen. I think Duke was shooting around 30%, except AJ, who was 1 for 1.

I just can't understand how you can't get a game plan together where your best offensive player takes more than 1 shot by the time 30% of the game has been played.

Also, if Theo is useless, play Bates Jones. He's a fundamentally sound player who can get rebounds and make 3's.
 
It'll be interesting to see if Roach's diminished role will continue when K returns to the sidelines. The new starting five went +21 last night.
Do we know that the new starting 5 was Scheyer's decision? Based on the timing of everything, it seemed to me like K's decision that Scheyer simply followed through with.
It feels like the starting 5 was a K decision, but I don't know if the minute reduction was also his decision. Probably worth noting that Roach sat the last 9:18 of the first half with two fouls -- maybe it doesn't look as drastic if that doesn't happen.
 
Fair points. K may have played Roach more and stuck with AJ at 25 minutes or so. If so, this is probably a much more stressful game than it ended up being.
 
Also, where do you find the +/- for individual lineups? Obviously all other lineups combined to go -9. But I'd be curious about which ones were the worst. I would think that terrible 1st half lineup was one of them. I believe they alone were outscored by 9.
I just go through and calculate it myself. The lineup I'm assuming you're referring to of Roach/Moore/Baker/Griffin/John was -5 in 2:24, and only scored one point on 4 offensive possessions (though Baker missed two free throws). There was also a lineup with Baker in the second half that went -5, I think that was the small-ball lineup with Keels subbed out for an injury. Rough game for him overall from a +/- perspective.
 
Also, where do you find the +/- for individual lineups? Obviously all other lineups combined to go -9. But I'd be curious about which ones were the worst. I would think that terrible 1st half lineup was one of them. I believe they alone were outscored by 9.
I just go through and calculate it myself. The lineup I'm assuming you're referring to of Roach/Moore/Baker/Griffin/John was -5 in 2:24, and only scored one point on 4 offensive possessions (though Baker missed two free throws). There was also a lineup with Baker in the second half that went -5, I think that was the small-ball lineup with Keels subbed out for an injury. Rough game for him overall from a +/- perspective.
Yeah, that actually looks right. I have it as 12-4 when the starters went out and 13-9 when they came back in. But effectively it was 13-10 because the starters came in with Wake already on the line (where they made one FT). So, -5.
 
I would like to know John's individual +/-. I believe he was also part of a bad 2nd half stretch.
 

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