Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

Game Thread [2022-23] NCAA Tournament

Who will win the national championship?

  • Total voters
    25
  • Poll closed .
What's the tallest center that 7'5 guy has shot over in the 17 game win streak? 6'7? 6'8?

Point of attack will be biggest concern. If Proctor can lock up Abmas then unless they just have a 95%ile three point shooting spree, it's hard to imagine us not scoring 85+ on the other end. I'll be disappointed if we don't have more offensive rebounds than they do defensive
 
Foolishly looking ahead to Tennessee, it appears they lost their point guard, who seems extremely important on paper but not extremely efficient, just a few games ago. That’s a huge blow, I think. 34% assist rate when no one else on the team is above 18%. Not a great 3pt shooter but great from the line, so he had the potential to be better. It’s hard to recover if you lose your clear primary playmaker and engine.
 
Can't get any more granular than this unfortunately but their stats against even teams in just the top 100 were far less impressive, presumably because they weren't playing a Louisville quality opponent:

Screen-Shot-2023-03-12-at-7-38-58-PM.png




Again i'm really not sure how the computers handle these teams that play low majors for 85% of their schedule. Has rating projections for them ever been validated against performance in the tourney? I just don't see how you can even compare their stats when the mismatch in physicality and athleticism alone will be stark compared to the Dakokta teams they've been beating the last eight weeks.

This would be a really, really bad loss for Scheyer for a team as long and athletic as ours, IMO. Anything less than Duke giving ten seems wild. I guess there's a chance we go ice cold from three even being guarded by midgets and they get hot, but we should be playing volleyball on the offensive glass regardless. We should expect to score no fewer than 80 points
 
Last edited:
Despite the computer numbers, vegas seems more bullish on Duke too. Favored by seven right now. In comparison, UVA only giving 5.5 to Furman, and Miami only 3.5 to Drake
 



That's certainly something, ranking ahead of Miami but behind UVA, even though by all measures Miami had a better season than UVA? Seems like this can only happen if they weighed our win over one this weekend, but not the other

This is just proof positive that they don't even consider the Saturday games, let alone Sunday. Maybe move the tourney final out to Friday I guess, like those mid major leagues.
 
So we're essentially the most respected and feared 5 seed according to Vegas and the eye test of the general consensus.
 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2023 March Madness Predictions

FiveThirtyEight’s men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament forecasting models calculate the chance of each team reaching each round.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

538 gives us the 3nd best chance at 13%. Purdue 26%, Marq 16%
 
All the opening lines:


Thursday, March 16

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Southeast Missouri State (TBD)

No. 1 Kansas (-21.5) vs. No. 16 Howard

No. 1 Houston (-20.5) vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky

No. 2 Arizona (-13.5) vs. No. 15 Princeton

No. 2 Texas (-14.5) vs. No. 15 Colgate

No. 2 UCLA (-18.5) vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville

No. 4 Virginia (-6.5) vs. No. 13 Furman

No. 4 Tennessee (-11.5) vs. No. 13 Louisiana

No. 5 San Diego State (-4.5) vs. No. 12 College of Charleston

No. 5 Duke (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts

No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State (-1.5)

No. 7 Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Penn State

No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Boise State (-1.5)

No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia (-2.5)

No. 8 Arkansas (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Illinois

No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn (-1)


Friday, March 17

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson (TBD)

No. 2 Marquette (-13.5) vs. No. 15 Vermont

No. 3 Xavier (-12.5) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State

No. 3 Gonzaga (-13.5) vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon

No. 3 Baylor (-10.5) vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara

No. 3 Kansas State (-9.5) vs. No. 14 Montana State

No. 4 UConn (-10) vs. No. 13 Iona

No. 4 Indiana (-5.5) vs. No. 13 Kent State

No. 5 Saint Mary’s (-5.5) vs. No. 12 VCU

No. 5 Miami (-3.5) vs. No. 12 Drake

No. 6 Kentucky (-3.5) vs. No. 11 Providence

No. 6 Creighton (-5.5) vs. No. 11 NC State

No. 6 Iowa State vs. Mississippi State/Pittsburgh (TBD)

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Arizona State/Nevada (TBD)

No. 7 Michigan State (-1.5) vs. No. 10 USC

No. 8 Memphis (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic
 
Duke should only be favored by 5.5, per Sagarin, who has Duke as #14 in the country now. Vegas clearly believes this team is better than the metrics will say at this point, even with the metrics saying Duke is really, really good. 2 points off from Sagarin is about as big as it will ever get, barring some injury chaos. Duke would only be a 4-point underdog to Alabama if we assume this bump would hold up against any opponent.

What I want this to feel like is Florida’s first title run, when they weren’t super dominant on the computers, but everyone knew they were peaking, and by the time they got deeper in the tournament, they were the clear #1 in Vegas. This run by Duke would be a lot harder, obviously.
 
Last edited:
Oral did play Houston on November and lost by 38. They shot 23/21 (only made six twos) and had barely over 50% DREB. Houston shot 59% from 2 and got to the line 25 times. Abmas had 3 points on 1-13.

Obviously, that's an outlier performance from 4 months ago, but still an encouraging data point for what happens to their efficiency when they run into high end athleticism.
 
Looks like Houston went small to achieve that result though, with their "bigs" (all 6'7-6'8) only playing 55 minutes, so more than half the game with four guards.

Don't love that. This is the exact style of team I wanted to avoid - hopefully they'll be limited enough that it won't matter.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Chat users

  • No one is chatting at the moment.

Chat rooms

  • General chit-chat 0

Forum statistics

Threads
1,067
Messages
424,998
Members
624
Latest member
Bluegrass Blue Devil
Back
Top Bottom