Game Thread [2022-23] North Carolina

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Saturday, February 4, 6:30pm ET, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium

Duke could win the next 100 regular season meetings with UNC by 100 points each, and I’m not sure anyone would care or notice. This former rivalry between two formerly elite programs feels done.

Caleb Love has been waiting all season to play respectable basketball again. He is an awful player on paper. There is nothing he does well. There is no reason any NBA team would draft him. He is about to be the best basketball player on Earth this Saturday.

 

[aiw]

I hope Whitehead is still out

 

[Devilsforlife]

I don’t really know what to think about this one. UNC has been a disappointment, but Caleb Love will probably destroy us yet again, and the rivalry has been something akin to cruel and unusual punishment in both basketball and football since 2019. Zion shoe explosion which led to them sweeping us, another sweep in 2021, and the K night and FF losses last year. In football we had the HB pass which killed what remained of the Cutcliffe era, two horrific blowouts, and refball at Wade last fall. Brutality in every sense of the word.

 

[DurhamSon]

Feels like the stakes are as low as they've been in a while. No top seeding on the line for either team, both teams probably out of the ACC title race. No lopsided disparity in ranking or extenuating circumstances that would make losing to them at home embarrassing. And we already all died last year so what's the worse that could happen?

 

[Devilsforlife]

I‘d rather not drop our third straight at Cameron, and fifth out of sixth overall to them (which would likely reach 6/7 by the end of the year as I doubt we win in Chapel Hill), which would be entering Hansbrough Indoor territory against much weaker versions of UNC overall, but losing wouldn’t make me want to put a bag over my head either. Hopefully we play loosely and confidently and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

I wanna us mix something up defensively, get creative and throw something at them we haven’t shown yet this season. In my mind I’m imagining mixing up ball screen coverages: jump some of them, switch some, drop on some, jump the first pass, something. Let them watch film on us and then come out with with something they haven’t seen all year. Even that half court trap they like to pop from time to time.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I also wouldn‘t mind pressing them. They fell apart against the press in both the Baylor and Kansas games in the NCAAT last year. I’d been hoping for us to try it in the FF, but we never did.

 

[uncy12]

This Carolina team really isn’t that good, the way to beat them is play relentless pressure defense all game long, just stay within striking distance within the last 7-8 minutes. They are awful at executing. Fell apart against Alabama, Iowa State, Pitt, Syracuse.

 

[childress22]

There are tickets on SeatGeek for under $600.

 

[DrKlahn]

This Carolina team really isn’t that good, the way to beat them is play relentless pressure defense all game long, just stay within striking distance within the last 7-8 minutes. They are awful at executing. Fell apart against Alabama, Iowa State, Pitt, Syracuse.

Don’t worry, nobody who is picking UNC to win this game is implying that they are any good.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

First time I have ever downvoted a SMTTEM post. The picture was too much for me.

 

[physicsfactor]

I can’t remember if I posted this a couple of weeks ago, but I was thinking about this game and thought, “When’s the last time neither team was ranked coming into the game? It has to have been some time pre-K era.”

So I looked it up. It was 2021. Both games. I forget that season happened.

 

[rome8180]

This would be our worst loss, according to the stupid Quad system. It would also be just the second Quad 1 win for UNC. It would be our first home loss of the season. For all those reasons, I would like to avoid having it happen.

It's going to happen.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

SMTTEM, what’s an early guess at the line?

 

[DurhamSon]

Essentially it will be whatever bonus we get from playing in Durham instead of a neutral venue, maybe Duke -1.5 or -2?

 

[rome8180]

Kenpom has it at 74-70, Duke, fwiw.

I'm guessing the betting public will think it will be more of a coin flip. I sense that UNC is still seen as the better team, regardless of whether that corresponds to reality.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

My guess was gonna be Duke -3 or -4, just taking home court into account and maybe a point extra Duke’s direction. But I can’t tell if that sounds crazy.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I just look at Sagarin: http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

Predictor column. Take the difference between Duke's predictor number and UNC's predictor number. Add in home court advantage (currently "HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.83]" on that page). I get Duke by 2.75, so the line should close at Duke -2.5 or -3.

Subjective factors? Maybe Duke's season-long numbers being dragged down by ass road performances, which should help Duke's odds in a home game. Or the emergence of Proctor, Lively and even Roach as halfway decent players lately. I haven't followed UNC at all. It seems they are still being overrated in the mainstream, though, so I'd go with Duke -2 or -2.5.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I can’t remember if I posted this a couple of weeks ago, but I was thinking about this game and thought, “When’s the last time neither team was ranked coming into the game? It has to have been some time pre-K era.”

So I looked it up. It was 2021. Both games. I forget that season happened.

Another fun note is that the last ranked vs ranked Duke-UNC matchup was in 2019. UNC has been mediocre for most of the last 4 seasons, aside from 5 fucking weeks last year where a redneckbeard caught fire and got them to within 4 points of a title. Maddening.

 

[rome8180]

Crazy as it sounds, I'd like to see Mark Mitchell guard Love. Anyone but Roach. And if you look at Mark Mitchell's defensive assignments, he's frequently shut down his individual matchups all year. We saw it just last game versus Monsanto. But we also saw it against Murray of Iowa and several others. He's not the best help defender. He frequently misses rotations. But if you ask him to guard someone one on one, he usually does a great job. And he does it without fouling.

I think the defensive assignments favor UNC a bit, so I'm just looking to get creative. I also think this is more of a game for Young than Lively. Bacot will foul Lively out in five minutes. Young should be able to guard Bacot well enough and will be able to hold his own on the boards.