Here's a purely numbers based look at Minnesota, with no eye test involved, since I haven't seen them play at all:
1. Minnesota has been going 11 deep regularly, but I'd expect them to cut it off at 9 against Duke. Regardless of who normally starts, judging by minutes, the 9 would be:
PG Andre Hollins 6-1 200
SG Austin Hollins 6-4 185
SF Joe Coleman 6-4 200
PF Rodney Williams 6-7 200
C Eliott Eliason 6-11 260 (near 50/50 split with Mbakwe)
6 Trevor Mbakwe 6-8 245
7 Julian Welch 6-3 195
8 Maverick Ahanmisi 6-2 192
9 Oto Osenieks 6-8 205
This kind of lineup presents more problems for Duke defensively than a big lineup like Kentucky played against Duke, IMO. Kelly will have to guard Rodney Williams if K wants to play Kelly his normal minutes. The good news is that Williams, despite only being 6-7, is predominantly a post player on offense (see below).
2. Minnesota is a Sweet Sixteen caliber team, but it's not because of their offense. Some highlights:
They're #82 in getting to the line (FTA/FGA), but they're #207 in making their FTs. They're not a 3PT shooting team - #280 in percentage of points from 3PT and #191 in 3PT%. They're #56 in eFG% (#31 in 2PT%), which means they're pretty good when they go inside and aren't fouled.
They play slow. #232 in tempo.
Their greatest strength on offense is rebounding, despite their smallish lineup. #3 in OReb%. That could be a problem for Duke. Their biggest weakness on offense is turnovers (#234 in TO%).
Making matters worse for them, none of the above is adjusted for SOS, and Duke is a major step up in opponent strength.
3. Minnesota is an elite defensive team.
Every stat is impressive; no need to analyze much. #1 in opponent eFG% (#3 in 2PT%, #9 in 3PT%). #4 in block% and #13 in steal%. #76 in opponent TO%.
Their only important semi-weakness is defensive rebounding, at #128 in the country. They'll also give up some FTs, at #153 in not allowing opponents to get to the line.
None of the above is adjusted for SOS, but Kenpom's adjusted rankings have them as the #5 defensive team in the country.
4. Minnesota will want to run their offense through Williams.
He's at 127 efficiency on 21% usage.
His FT rate is excellent (0.4 FTA/FGA), but he's a bad FT shooter (59% last season, 50% this season).
Fortunately for Kelly, he loves to work inside rather than on the perimeter. 83% of his points come on 2PT (5% on 3PT and 12% on FT). He shot 31% 3PT last season.
5. Eliason and Mbakwe are monster shotblockers and rebounders.
Eliason - 15% DReb, 13% OReb, 14% block
Mbakwe - 24% DReb, 13% OReb, 11% block
I doubt it would be a good strategy for Minnesota to put one of them on Kelly, so we shouldn't see both of them on the court very often.
