Re: Duke at Pittsburgh, Nov. 1, Noon, Heinz Field (TV: ESPNU
I'm trying to pick apart why Sagarin overrates Duke in this matchup so much relative to the public. Sagarin has Duke favored by 3 at Pitt. Where has Duke been luckier than its opponents this season? Close wins are irrelevant as a luck element in this, since Sagarin predictor only cares about margin of victory, rather than wins and losses.
1. Duke has 2 fumbles lost out of 9 fumbles, compared with 5 fumbles lost out of 9 fumbles for opponents. Very lucky.
2. Duke has thrown 3 interceptions, compared with 8 for opponents. However, Duke has had 11 sacks compared to 4 sacks by opponents, so the interceptions are roughly in line with the QB pressure. Not too lucky.
3. Duke has 5 total turnovers, compared with 13 for opponents. Somewhat lucky.
4. Duke has 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns, compared with 0 for opponents. Lucky.
5. Duke is 8-16 on 4th down, compared with 3-15 for opponents. Very lucky.
6. Duke is 10-10 FG and 29-29 XPT, compared with 9-13 FG and 7-9 XPT for opponents. Somewhat lucky.
7. Duke is 0-0 on 2pt conversions, compared with 0-3 for opponents. Lucky.
Taken as a whole, that's a lot of luck for Duke. I think that's a decent explanation for the consistent Vegas underrating of Duke compared to computers. Hopefully the regression all comes at once vs Wake Forest, if it happens at all (a football season provides small enough samples for all these luck elements, such that in-season regression is not inevitable like in baseball or basketball). Duke can survive an extremely unlucky home game vs Wake.