Some key takeaways on paper:
1. 73% TS is great, no matter what the usage is. The only Duke player to match that in recent history was sophomore Mark Williams, a potential 15-year NBA starter. No one was higher than 60% TS for Duke last season. Of course, low usage (13%) helps, but thatâs unlikely to change much at Duke.
2. Itâs easy to see how Brown is so efficient. Heâs like an analytics robot. 88% of his shots were at the rim, where he made 75%. The number that makes me happiest is 1.1% - thatâs his percentage of his shots from midrange. 11% of his shots were from 3, and 100% of his 3pt makes were assisted. This guy doesnât take anything but open catch and shoot 3s or layups. His somewhat low FT attempt rate (33%) suggests heâs not taking many contested layups, which is good, but Duke might be better off with him trying to finish in traffic more often - his 72% FT is pretty good for a big, and Duke would be more than happy with 1.44 points per possession, not even accounting for and-one opportunities.
3. Already showed significant improvement as a shooter from freshman to sophomore years, though the sample sizes are so small that it could just be noise. Taking 19 3s as a sophomore isnât very encouraging, until you see he took zero as a freshman. His FT% improved from 57% to 72%. Taken together, despite the small samples, thereâs a believable narrative that Brown is a smart player who has been working hard on his shot because he knows itâs his only path to a pro career. I would hope to see him go from 0 to 19 to around 100 3pt attempts next season. Mark Mitchell was essentially given up on by this coaching staff after not improving his shot as a sophomore (along with all the other poor indicators, his 3pt attempts went from 54 to 40). This adds credence to the story of Brown being a guy who fully understands the need to take and make more 3s, with the Duke staff onboard while knowing Brown will need to provide spacing around Flagg.
4. Basic defensive numbers arenât worth much, though itâs notable that he has both the best DRtg and DBPM on Syracuseâs roster despite not having a great defensive rebounding rate or block rate. Thatâs rare. Naheem McLeod on Syracuse had a 14% block rate compared with Brownâs 3.2%, and McLeodâs overall defensive numbers werenât as good. It suggests Brown was actually great at defense, as in he provided good help defense, stayed in front of his man and forced misses, rather than just grabbing rebounds and swatting shots out of bounds. The lack of shot blocking is a bit concerning for his own potential, but with Flagg and Maluach on the court, Duke wouldnât need more rim protection. The 4.2% steal rate is exceptional, similar to Blakesâ 4.4% and Goldwireâs 4.5% in their final seasons at Duke. His defensive activity is probably similar to what Blakes and Goldwire provided in short bursts. As another point of reference, Zionâs steal rate was 3.9%.