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Player Rejean “Boogie” Ellis

Our ability to force turnovers was probably masking weaknesses to some extent.

Moreover, I read somewhere that teams reliant on generating turnovers generally don't do as well in the NCAA Tournament because better teams don't turn it over, among other factors. Not exactly shocking.

I'm sure there are exceptions of course.

I absolutely agree about the injuries. When you continue to rely on so many young players, chemistry interruptions are huge.

this has nothing to do with Boogie Ellis


True.
 
Our ability to force turnovers was probably masking weaknesses to some extent.

Moreover, I read somewhere that teams reliant on generating turnovers generally don't do as well in the NCAA Tournament because better teams don't turn it over, among other factors. Not exactly shocking.

I'm sure there are exceptions of course.

I absolutely agree about the injuries. When you continue to rely on so many young players, chemistry interruptions are huge.

this has nothing to do with Boogie Ellis

It's D-F. We go off on unrelated tangents all the time here.
 
Our ability to force turnovers was probably masking weaknesses to some extent.

Moreover, I read somewhere that teams reliant on generating turnovers generally don't do as well in the NCAA Tournament because better teams don't turn it over, among other factors. Not exactly shocking.


I'm sure there are exceptions of course.

I absolutely agree about the injuries. When you continue to rely on so many young players, chemistry interruptions are huge.
Luke Winn did a piece about this, back when he still worked for Sports Illustrated. It was actually in 2012. And not so coincidentally that was the year that Missouri, a team extremely dependent on forcing turnovers, got upset by a 15 seed.

Of course, there are exceptions. Auburn generated a top of turnovers and made the Final Four this year.
 
This all makes our stupid overplay defense even more frustrating. Not only does it rarely generate turnovers, which is the thing that would make the high-risk nature of it worth it, but generating turnovers isn't even that useful for tournament success. We also guard the three-point line aggressively, despite the fact that you can't really control three-point percentage as a defense (though you can limit attempts).

So we expend all our effort doing things that leave our defense vulnerable to layups, and the payoffs either are nonexistent or won't help us in the tournament.
 
This may be an unpopular take because we all thought that MSU was a relatively favorable draw from a pure matchup perspective (myself included) and we've all watched K eat Izzo's lunch for so long, but they were damn good this year. They finished with a 30.81 on Kenpom which is right around the level of a typical national championship in most years.

We were ranked slightly lower than MSU going into our game (although it's fair to point out that our rating would have likely been in the 32/33 range if Zion doesn't get hurt). From a Kenpom perspective, we should all be much more annoyed about losing to a KU team in 2018 that we were so clearly better than according to the metrics.
 
Honestly, I am pleased with the progression of the defense from the coaches the last two seasons. Last year they made the right decision to go zone considering how bad the man to man was, and this year even though the defense tapered off towards the end, they were excellent in pick & roll coverage throughout the season, which was really a nice change from the lay-up lines Miami and other teams used to run on us in prior seasons.

They're still not good IMO at coaching man to man, and this may be the result of multiple things, one of which could be related to the scheme. However, they have improved a lot at getting the team up to good levels of defending pick and roll, and they know when the defense is just so ass that they have to bail and go to zone. These are two good things.

I expect our man to man defense to again be ass next season if Bolden and Javin don't come back. If they both come back, I really see no excuse why a team with a great defensive point guard, two senior big men, and a senior wing (White) who are all plus defenders can't be a top 30 man to man defensive team. Using the two senior big men to push the two freshman big men for playing time would likely at least make Hurt and Carey give some effort defensively, which would be nice.
 
I thought our defense still made a billion mistakes this year and was really porous. The difference was we had elite length, elite athleticism, good shot blockers and mostly great effort. But I remember listening to a Sperber podcast where he talked about how frequently we were out of position. To me, that's partially due to playing young players and partially due to the overplay scheme. If we expended less effort trying to get steals we're not going to get anway, then recoveries would be easier.

I think these mistakes will look far worse next year with less size on the wing, without Zion in the backline, with at least one of Bolden or DeLaurier likely gone, and with players who probably won't give a shit because they have a track record of not defending (Carey). Hopefully K doesn't wait until February to go zone. We know he'll never go conservative man.
 
I thought our defense still made a billion mistakes this year and was really porous. The difference was we had elite length, elite athleticism, good shot blockers and mostly great effort. But I remember listening to a Sperber podcast where he talked about how frequently we were out of position. To me, that's partially due to playing young players and partially due to the overplay scheme. If we expended less effort trying to get steals we're not going to get anway, then recoveries would be easier.

I think these mistakes will look far worse next year with less size on the wing, without Zion in the backline, with at least one of Bolden or DeLaurier likely gone, and with players who probably won't give a shit because they have a track record of not defending (Carey). Hopefully K doesn't wait until February to go zone. We know he'll never go conservative man.


Couldn't agree more. And I'd like to mail this to Coach K... you know, if I had his address.

The return address would be rome of course... ;-p
 
I thought our defense still made a billion mistakes this year and was really porous. The difference was we had elite length, elite athleticism, good shot blockers and mostly great effort. But I remember listening to a Sperber podcast where he talked about how frequently we were out of position. To me, that's partially due to playing young players and partially due to the overplay scheme. If we expended less effort trying to get steals we're not going to get anway, then recoveries would be easier.

I think these mistakes will look far worse next year with less size on the wing, without Zion in the backline, with at least one of Bolden or DeLaurier likely gone, and with players who probably won't give a shit because they have a track record of not defending (Carey). Hopefully K doesn't wait until February to go zone. We know he'll never go conservative man.

He probably won't ever pull back the aggression of the man to man defense again, but, he did do it in 2010, which is what it confuses me as to why he's never at least attempted it again.
 
Boogie's 0-5 performance tonight (0-2 outside) will slightly drag down the first two numbers in his 32/33/61 shooting splits, although he did go 2-2 from the foul line.
 
K would never go for this, though he probably should.
 

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