2016 NCAA Tournament

[krsmith16]

StopThePumpFakesShav has a nice profile of Northern Iowa in the chat. I would love that matchup as UNI doesn't seem to rebound particularly well and features a rather one-dimensional offense (they love 3s). Only doing one thing with the ball would only help as our challenged, little group would not have too much to prepare for. Also, their coach will, no doubt, see how terrible we are at defending the rim and try to exploit by attacking with 2s. Maybe they get taken out of their comfort zone a bit. I'm probably reaching here.

 

[rome8180]

This will be the shortest thread in the history of this forum.

 

[physicsfactor]

Lol

 

[physicsfactor]

Not

 

[physicsfactor]

if I

 

[physicsfactor]

can help it

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This post will be a regrettable waste of time.

Here are how Duke's potential opponents in the 1st round stack up, based on bracketmatrix.con and kenpom.com:

Realistic 1st Round Opponents - Unlikely (Too High on BracketMatrix)

Wichita State (KenPom #12)
Gonzaga (27)
Connecticut (28)
Virginia Commonwealth (31)
Cincinnati (32)
Saint Mary's (35)
Butler (39)
San Diego State (42)
Saint Joseph's (45)
Southern California (48)
South Carolina (50)
Oregon State (60)
Saint Bonaventure (79)
Temple (89)

Realistic 1st Round Opponents - Likely

Arkansas - Little Rock (56)
Hawaii (61)
North Carolina - Wilmington (74)
Northern Iowa (76)
South Dakota State (80)
Stony Brook (91)
Fresno State (105)
Chattanooga (107)

Realistic 1st Round Opponents - Unlikely (Too Low on BracketMatrix)

Stephen F. Austin (34)
Iona (73)
Middle Tennessee (124)

Wichita State stands out as the nail in the coffin. Duke could beat any of these other teams, but Arkansas - Little Rock or Hawaii would be unfortunate among the likely matchups. Root for a 4 seed and root for Middle Tennessee, Chattanooga or Fresno State to be the 13. Stephen F. Austin would be one hell of a 14 seed, though they could also get a 13 and be Duke's matchup if Duke gets a 4.

Yale and Buffalo would be regular season rematches and, therefore, would not happen per the bracket-making rules.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This post will be an even more regrettable waste of time.

Here are how Duke's potential opponents in the 2nd round stack up, based on bracketmatrix.con and kenpom.com:

Realistic 2nd Round Opponents - Likely

Kentucky (8)
Purdue (10)
Indiana (14)
Texas A&M (16)
Arizona (17)
Iowa State (18)
California (21)
Maryland (23)

Realistic 2nd Round Opponents - Unlikely

Baylor (24)
Seton Hall (25)
Utah (29)
Texas (30)

Kentucky, Indiana and Utah are regular season rematches, but I don't believe these have any influence on the bracket-making process beyond the 1st round. We do not want to face Kentucky. You can talk yourself into wanting it due to intangibles like "K never loses revenge games," but you would be an idiot. Purdue is also on the more undesirable end of the spectrum.

Root for Utah to slip to a 4 seed, or root for a 4 seed for Duke with Baylor, Seton Hall or Texas sliding into the 5 slot. For pure drama and entertainment value, along with simply being a weaker opponent among these teams, Maryland would be the best bet for a 2nd round matchup.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Ultimately, this post will be the most regrettable waste of time in the history of the Internet.

Here are the things I believe need to happen for Duke to win a national championship:

1. Grayson Allen needs to go on a 2006 Dwyane Wade Miami Heat run of offensive brilliance combined with incredibly preferential officiating on his drives to the basket.

2. Brandon Ingram needs to go on a 2003 Carmelo Anthony Syracuse run involving overwhelming individual talent in all aspects of the game.

3. Luke Kennard needs to go on a 1989 Glen Rice Michigan run including a 3-point bonanza where he hits close to 50% on 10+ attempts every game.

4. Chase Jeter needs to be a positive player for significant 6th or 7th man minutes every game. Not just a harmless player, but an actual positive contributor overall with strong rebounding and defense, along with extremely efficient offense all on dunks and 70%+ FT shooting.

5. Derryck Thornton needs to be a 2015 Quinn Cook Duke type player, with zero midrange jumpers, very few risky passes or forays into the defense, a bunch of wide open catch and shoot 3s, the occasional drive and layup, and lock down on-ball defense.

6. The defense needs to be good overall, boosted by Jeter's contributions on the glass and protecting the rim, and with everyone else feeling like they can defend more aggressively with a legitimate 7-man rotation.

As always, Chase Jeter is the key.

 

[rome8180]

ESPN has us playing Stephen F. Austin followed by Texas A&M (or Chattanooga).

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Stephen F. Austin would be a complete and utter disaster and anyone seriously projecting that matchup can go fuck themselves.

 

[DrKlahn]

Just a couple of things.

1. I think we can stand down on any concerns that a power conference team or Wichita State (or VCU, who can't play Duke anyway) will fall to a 12. There are no longer any power conference teams listed as 12s on the bracket matrix, since one-bid leagues now fill every spot from 12 to 16 as well as an 11 (most likely UALR). It's somewhat likelier, though still really unlikely, that Duke would drop to a 6. If so, everything is on the table--this field has about a dozen teams that are plausible 11 seeds.

2. There are four plausible first round sites for Duke as a 4-5 seed, since Raleigh/Des Moines/St. Louis/Brooklyn will all be taken up by teams seeded 1-3. If Duke is a 4, my hunch is they would get Providence (based on geography) or Denver (to help fill up the 19,000 seat arena). If Duke's a 5, then they go where the 4 goes: Providence if it's Maryland, OKC if it's TAMU, Denver if it's Utah, etc. I don't want Denver--the thought of Marshall playing his 35-40 minutes at high altitude is awful.

3. Some people are talking about Duke being in UNC's region or Virginia's, which I guess does not violate any bracket principle, but it seems highly unlikely to me. That leaves only Kansas' Midwest region or MSU's West region. So I would say it's like an 85-90% chance Duke is a 4/5 in the Midwest or West, with 5 way more likely than 4.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Stephen F. Austin was a hot upset pick last year. They were a 12 seed, but were Kenpom 40 at the end of the year. They are 34 this year. They drew Utah (so we were all rooting for them), and lost by 7.

Interesting that they're better this season per Kenpom, but projected for a lower seed. I agree- they are a disaster for us based on Kenpom.

Not a tall team but somehow 12th overall in 2 pt percentage. They lead the nation in turnovers forced per possession. I guess they must press?

I will say- their schedule is absolutely horrible. They only played 3 teams inside the Kenpom Top 125 and lost all 4 (10 point losses to Northern Iowa and UAB, 7 point loss to Az. State and 42 point loss to Baylor).

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This is Duke's region, IMO:

Midwest

1. Kansas (#1 on S Curve)
2. Oregon (6) - can't be Oklahoma or West Virginia due to conference, so this region will have the best 1 and second-best 2; could also be Villanova here if Oregon gets geographic preference for West (best 2)

4. Maryland (16)
5. Duke (17)

12. Stephen F. Austin (48)
13. Chattanooga (49)

Losing to SFA is the best bet. Losing to a Rasheed Sulaimon layup in the final seconds is destiny. Note that the consequence of finishing 1 spot below the 4 line in this scenario is playing SFA (34 on KenPom) instead of Chattanooga (107). Placing Duke 1 spot after Maryland, instead of the other way around, results in Duke being a 3-5 point favorite in the 1st round instead of a 10-15 point favorite.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I think Oregon will get the 2 in the West. That just seems natural and the way they do things with the Pac 12. No clue what the ordering is among the other 1s. And I ask this question every year, but how can the Big 10 title game matter if it doesn't end until 5:15pm?

It feels like Kansas, MSU, UNC, UVA are the 1s in that order?

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

If Oregon gets West, then Duke's region will include Kansas and Villanova, the 1 and 5 on Kenpom. The Committee will be screwing the overall 1 seed and giving the last 1 seed the best possible matchup as well. I agree that this will happen upon second thought.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Jerry Palm has Oregon as the West 1, Duke as the West 4 and Seton Hall as the 5. We'd be playing #105 Fresno State in the first round in Providence. That's pretty much the only bracket one can devise where a person can non-ironically predict Duke to go to the E8. They'd likely play Purdue or Oklahoma in that round.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

This year's selection show is at 530 rather than the usual 6pm.

 

[rome8180]

I assuming that just means another half hour of useless bloat.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

If the big ten game goes to overtime it will have to start late