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Finally, after a long hiatus, college basketball is back.
The last memory of this sport is a pleasant one for Duke fans, as Villanova's buzzer-beater in the national title game kept Duke's most hated rival from winning it all. Justice was served for UNC's decades of academic fraud.
And then, emptiness. All seemed lost when the NCAA inexplicably canceled the 2016-17 college basketball season, which would have almost certainly ended with another national championship for Duke. It's not unreasonable to believe Duke was deprived of an undefeated season.
Duke had an all-time great freshman class coming in, led by the phenom, Harry Giles, and perhaps the most impressive physical specimen Duke has ever had, Marques Bolden. Joining them were Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson, who were both expected to contribute massively as freshmen.
Due to the NCAA's decision, Duke fans will never know what heights Giles could have reached as a freshman. Would he have been so dominant as a Kevin Garnett/Grant Hill hybrid that Duke would've retired his jersey after one season? Possible.
The potential contributions of Tatum and Jackson at Duke were also lost in time, as they joined Giles in being one-and-done. Sophomore Luke Kennard decided to enter the draft as well, which turned out to be a good decision, as he went in the lottery despite showing very little 3-point shooting ability during his one and only season playing in college.
And what about Grayson Allen, who was last seen during one of the most dominant statistical seasons in Duke history as a sophomore? His junior season was going to be thoroughly enjoyable for Duke fans, as he could have potentially become one of the rare Duke players who is more loved than hated by casual fans, due to his spectacular athleticism. Alas, the world will never know of Allen's junior season.
An unbeatable big-ball lineup of Allen, Kennard, Tatum, Giles and Bolden. Major playing time for a deep and reliable bench, including Jackson, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Chase Jeter, Javin DeLaurier and Sean Obi. Unstoppable on offense. Suffocating on defense. National champs while UNC continues to fail with a cloud hanging over them. Would've been so nice to be able to see that season play out.
Now, it's time to turn the page, from what could have been to what will be.
Mike "The Master" Krzyzewski has reloaded for 2017-18 and has a roster primed for a belated title run. Duke enjoyed some good fortune when Allen and Bolden decided to spurn the NBA and return for another season. Four consensus top 10 recruits - Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter, Trevon Duval and Gary Trent - will be joining them. While the losses of Jefferson and Jones shouldn't be completely disregarded, they were not nearly as talented as the incoming freshmen and, therefore, their departures shouldn't hurt Duke. As The Master has shown repeatedly, when he has raw talent like this, Duke is a lock to go far in the NCAA Tournament.
With the best basketball coach in the world and the best college roster at his disposal, there is no reason for Duke to be anything less than spectacular in 2017-18. Finally, Duke can resume its decade of dominance over UNC after the lost 2016-17 season.
Here's a look at each of the first four opponents:
ELON
Friday, November 10, 7:00pm ET, WatchESPN
Kenpom preseason projections:
106 overall
102 offense
131 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 87, Elon 70 (Duke 94%)
Elon is no joke, and (if we're being serious now) a team as reliant on freshmen and sophomores as Duke might struggle against their fundamentally sound upperclassmen. Duke should win by a healthy margin, but Elon is the kind of team Duke should not want to draw as a low seed in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament.
The headlines will be all about Allen going up against one of his prior tripping victims, Steven Santa Ana, so the media will overlook the fact that Elon isn't a cupcake. All of Elon's top 5 players based on minutes return from last season; their likely starting lineup will include 2 seniors and 3 juniors. Elon is loaded with poised old guys who are probably confident about walking into Cameron and beating Duke's kids. Getting in Allen's head and causing him to be suspended again would be a bonus for Elon. This game is a potential landmine for Duke.
As you might expect, Elon doesn't beat itself. They were #55 in turnover rate last season and will presumably be even better this season. They share the ball, with the highest usage rate on the roster at 22% last season. Duke won't luck into defensive success and can't focus on any one player; they'll need to have no weak links in order to win comfortably.
Elon bombs away from 3. They were #15 in 3pt attempt rate last season. 4 of their 5 projected starters were competent 3pt shooters last season, at 33%, 37%, 38% and 46% 3pt. The 5th starter shot only 29% 3pt last season, but he has improved significantly throughout his career. Not the ideal matchup for Duke's multi-big lineups defensively, to say the least. Bagley and Carter will need to figure out how to contest 3s and recover quickly to help at the rim.
UTAH VALLEY
Saturday, November 11, 7:00pm ET, WatchESPN
Kenpom preseason projections:
166 overall
198 offense
138 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 91, Utah Valley 69 (Duke 98%)
Utah Valley played extremely fast and turned the ball over a lot last season (#301 turnover rate). They also had a very high 3pt attempt rate (#16, right behind Elon last season), but were terrible at making 3s (#291 3pt% last season). This is an intriguing team to watch if you're attracted to car wrecks. Utah Valley should rush up and down the court, chucking and bricking lots of 3s. 29% of their shots came in transition last season, compared with 20% for Duke.
The primary reason to take any interest in this game, however, is due to Utah Valley's first opponent of the season. They're pulling a suicidal back-to-back, first traveling to Kentucky on Friday night, and then going to Duke for the Saturday game. It's not a great idea to compare two teams based on a common opponent over a two-game sample size, but in this case, the Duke/Kentucky comparison will be too obvious to ignore.
MICHIGAN STATE
Tuesday, November 14, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
State Farm Champions Classic
Chicago
Kenpom preseason projections:
10 overall
9 offense
15 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 78, Michigan State 77 (Duke 52%)
MSU's most valuable players last season were Miles Bridges and Nick Ward, both freshmen. MSU's most hyped incoming player is Jaren Jackson, a consensus top 20 freshman. They are all very tall and/or very thick dudes.
Ward could potentially get all of Duke's bigs in foul trouble by himself, as his 8.8 fouls drawn per 40 minutes was 2nd in the country last season. Ward was also 2nd in offensive rebounding rate, at 18%. He was #51 in block rate, at 8.0%. Against the usual Duke team, there would be little hope to limit Ward's dominance, but if this particular Duke team can't handle someone like Ward, it's safe to assume no Duke team ever will.
Bridges is the headliner, of course. ESPN/DraftExpress has him 6th in their mock draft. Probably an accurate spot, but there are some weaknesses in his game. He doesn't get to the line enough, and his free throw shooting (69% last season) isn't good for a non-center. Compare his FT attempt rate of 25% last season with Jayson Tatum's 38%, for example. This led to his offensive efficiency being fine (107) but a little lower than you would want, even with 26% usage, despite very good shooting from everywhere. Bridges shot 39% from 3 and 55% from 2 last season, but the 3pt% may have been fluky, given his unimpressive FT%. Bridges had excellent numbers in defensive rebounding (23% rate) and shot blocking (4.9% rate) last season. He appears to have all the tools to become valuable in the NBA.
In the backcourt, Cassius Winston was MSU's standout last season as a freshman. He was 2nd in the country in assist rate, at 47%. His assist/turnover ratio was 2.4. Compare with Grayson Allen's 1.6 or Frank Jackson's 1.2. Winston got to the line well (39% FT attempt rate) and shot well from 3 (38%), which, together with his elite playmaking ability, makes him the kind of point guard that typically shreds Duke's defense. This will be a huge barometer game for Duval.
MSU is loaded. Duke fans will be vastly outnumbered at the United Center, which will be full of Kentucky, Kansas and MSU fans. Good test.
SOUTHERN
Friday, November 17, 7:00pm ET, RSN/WatchESPN
Kenpom preseason projections:
330 overall
327 offense
326 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 93, Southern 61 (Duke 99.8%)
Southern is awful, no doubt, but they have some strengths that would give a usual Duke team fits. Their offense is focused on getting inside, getting offensive rebounds and getting fouled. They were #32 in the country in offensive rebounding rate and #20 in FT attempt rate last season. Meanwhile, they're probably going to be the worst 3pt shooting team Duke will face; they were #300 in 3pt% and #338 in 3pt attempt rate last season.
If Duke doesn't have enough in the frontcourt this season to deal with this awful team inside, it will be safe to assume Duke will be terrible at these things until Coach K retires.
The last memory of this sport is a pleasant one for Duke fans, as Villanova's buzzer-beater in the national title game kept Duke's most hated rival from winning it all. Justice was served for UNC's decades of academic fraud.
And then, emptiness. All seemed lost when the NCAA inexplicably canceled the 2016-17 college basketball season, which would have almost certainly ended with another national championship for Duke. It's not unreasonable to believe Duke was deprived of an undefeated season.
Duke had an all-time great freshman class coming in, led by the phenom, Harry Giles, and perhaps the most impressive physical specimen Duke has ever had, Marques Bolden. Joining them were Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson, who were both expected to contribute massively as freshmen.
Due to the NCAA's decision, Duke fans will never know what heights Giles could have reached as a freshman. Would he have been so dominant as a Kevin Garnett/Grant Hill hybrid that Duke would've retired his jersey after one season? Possible.
The potential contributions of Tatum and Jackson at Duke were also lost in time, as they joined Giles in being one-and-done. Sophomore Luke Kennard decided to enter the draft as well, which turned out to be a good decision, as he went in the lottery despite showing very little 3-point shooting ability during his one and only season playing in college.
And what about Grayson Allen, who was last seen during one of the most dominant statistical seasons in Duke history as a sophomore? His junior season was going to be thoroughly enjoyable for Duke fans, as he could have potentially become one of the rare Duke players who is more loved than hated by casual fans, due to his spectacular athleticism. Alas, the world will never know of Allen's junior season.
An unbeatable big-ball lineup of Allen, Kennard, Tatum, Giles and Bolden. Major playing time for a deep and reliable bench, including Jackson, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Chase Jeter, Javin DeLaurier and Sean Obi. Unstoppable on offense. Suffocating on defense. National champs while UNC continues to fail with a cloud hanging over them. Would've been so nice to be able to see that season play out.
Now, it's time to turn the page, from what could have been to what will be.
Mike "The Master" Krzyzewski has reloaded for 2017-18 and has a roster primed for a belated title run. Duke enjoyed some good fortune when Allen and Bolden decided to spurn the NBA and return for another season. Four consensus top 10 recruits - Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter, Trevon Duval and Gary Trent - will be joining them. While the losses of Jefferson and Jones shouldn't be completely disregarded, they were not nearly as talented as the incoming freshmen and, therefore, their departures shouldn't hurt Duke. As The Master has shown repeatedly, when he has raw talent like this, Duke is a lock to go far in the NCAA Tournament.
With the best basketball coach in the world and the best college roster at his disposal, there is no reason for Duke to be anything less than spectacular in 2017-18. Finally, Duke can resume its decade of dominance over UNC after the lost 2016-17 season.
Here's a look at each of the first four opponents:
ELON
Friday, November 10, 7:00pm ET, WatchESPN
Kenpom preseason projections:
106 overall
102 offense
131 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 87, Elon 70 (Duke 94%)
Elon is no joke, and (if we're being serious now) a team as reliant on freshmen and sophomores as Duke might struggle against their fundamentally sound upperclassmen. Duke should win by a healthy margin, but Elon is the kind of team Duke should not want to draw as a low seed in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament.
The headlines will be all about Allen going up against one of his prior tripping victims, Steven Santa Ana, so the media will overlook the fact that Elon isn't a cupcake. All of Elon's top 5 players based on minutes return from last season; their likely starting lineup will include 2 seniors and 3 juniors. Elon is loaded with poised old guys who are probably confident about walking into Cameron and beating Duke's kids. Getting in Allen's head and causing him to be suspended again would be a bonus for Elon. This game is a potential landmine for Duke.
As you might expect, Elon doesn't beat itself. They were #55 in turnover rate last season and will presumably be even better this season. They share the ball, with the highest usage rate on the roster at 22% last season. Duke won't luck into defensive success and can't focus on any one player; they'll need to have no weak links in order to win comfortably.
Elon bombs away from 3. They were #15 in 3pt attempt rate last season. 4 of their 5 projected starters were competent 3pt shooters last season, at 33%, 37%, 38% and 46% 3pt. The 5th starter shot only 29% 3pt last season, but he has improved significantly throughout his career. Not the ideal matchup for Duke's multi-big lineups defensively, to say the least. Bagley and Carter will need to figure out how to contest 3s and recover quickly to help at the rim.
UTAH VALLEY
Saturday, November 11, 7:00pm ET, WatchESPN
Kenpom preseason projections:
166 overall
198 offense
138 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 91, Utah Valley 69 (Duke 98%)
Utah Valley played extremely fast and turned the ball over a lot last season (#301 turnover rate). They also had a very high 3pt attempt rate (#16, right behind Elon last season), but were terrible at making 3s (#291 3pt% last season). This is an intriguing team to watch if you're attracted to car wrecks. Utah Valley should rush up and down the court, chucking and bricking lots of 3s. 29% of their shots came in transition last season, compared with 20% for Duke.
The primary reason to take any interest in this game, however, is due to Utah Valley's first opponent of the season. They're pulling a suicidal back-to-back, first traveling to Kentucky on Friday night, and then going to Duke for the Saturday game. It's not a great idea to compare two teams based on a common opponent over a two-game sample size, but in this case, the Duke/Kentucky comparison will be too obvious to ignore.
MICHIGAN STATE
Tuesday, November 14, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
State Farm Champions Classic
Chicago
Kenpom preseason projections:
10 overall
9 offense
15 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 78, Michigan State 77 (Duke 52%)
MSU's most valuable players last season were Miles Bridges and Nick Ward, both freshmen. MSU's most hyped incoming player is Jaren Jackson, a consensus top 20 freshman. They are all very tall and/or very thick dudes.
Ward could potentially get all of Duke's bigs in foul trouble by himself, as his 8.8 fouls drawn per 40 minutes was 2nd in the country last season. Ward was also 2nd in offensive rebounding rate, at 18%. He was #51 in block rate, at 8.0%. Against the usual Duke team, there would be little hope to limit Ward's dominance, but if this particular Duke team can't handle someone like Ward, it's safe to assume no Duke team ever will.
Bridges is the headliner, of course. ESPN/DraftExpress has him 6th in their mock draft. Probably an accurate spot, but there are some weaknesses in his game. He doesn't get to the line enough, and his free throw shooting (69% last season) isn't good for a non-center. Compare his FT attempt rate of 25% last season with Jayson Tatum's 38%, for example. This led to his offensive efficiency being fine (107) but a little lower than you would want, even with 26% usage, despite very good shooting from everywhere. Bridges shot 39% from 3 and 55% from 2 last season, but the 3pt% may have been fluky, given his unimpressive FT%. Bridges had excellent numbers in defensive rebounding (23% rate) and shot blocking (4.9% rate) last season. He appears to have all the tools to become valuable in the NBA.
In the backcourt, Cassius Winston was MSU's standout last season as a freshman. He was 2nd in the country in assist rate, at 47%. His assist/turnover ratio was 2.4. Compare with Grayson Allen's 1.6 or Frank Jackson's 1.2. Winston got to the line well (39% FT attempt rate) and shot well from 3 (38%), which, together with his elite playmaking ability, makes him the kind of point guard that typically shreds Duke's defense. This will be a huge barometer game for Duval.
MSU is loaded. Duke fans will be vastly outnumbered at the United Center, which will be full of Kentucky, Kansas and MSU fans. Good test.
SOUTHERN
Friday, November 17, 7:00pm ET, RSN/WatchESPN
Kenpom preseason projections:
330 overall
327 offense
326 defense
Kenpom score: Duke 93, Southern 61 (Duke 99.8%)
Southern is awful, no doubt, but they have some strengths that would give a usual Duke team fits. Their offense is focused on getting inside, getting offensive rebounds and getting fouled. They were #32 in the country in offensive rebounding rate and #20 in FT attempt rate last season. Meanwhile, they're probably going to be the worst 3pt shooting team Duke will face; they were #300 in 3pt% and #338 in 3pt attempt rate last season.
If Duke doesn't have enough in the frontcourt this season to deal with this awful team inside, it will be safe to assume Duke will be terrible at these things until Coach K retires.
