As the final push for 1-seeds heats up this November, it's time once again to project the top line of the bracket. The regions are ordered by my subjective assessment of what Duke's preferences would be, and not by S-curve overall seeding.
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA
Philips Arena (home of the Hawks of the NBA)
Host: Georgia Tech
Approximate miles from Durham, NC: 400
Duke (ACC)
Kenpom projected record: 24-5 (14-4 in conference)
Number of games against Kenpom top 25 opponents (excluding tournaments): 7
Notes: Duke does not have the ideal schedule for seeding purposes (see notes for Villanova below). It shouldn't matter. If Duke finishes with 7 losses against their tough schedule (5 projected, plus 1 more in the Phil Knight tournament, plus 1 more in the ACC tournament), they should still be a 1-seed.
EAST
Boston, MA
TD Garden (home of the Bruins of the NHL and the Celtics of the NBA)
Host: Boston College
Approximate miles from Durham, NC: 700
Villanova (Big East)
Kenpom projected record: 24-5 (14-4 in conference)
Number of games against Kenpom top 25 opponents (excluding tournaments): 3
Notes: Villanova has the ideal schedule for seeding purposes, based on how the Selection Committee typically weighs certain factors (e.g., number of losses, RPI, overall SOS, record against top 50, etc.). Lots of good but not great opponents to buoy the SOS while avoiding high risk games against great opponents.
MIDWEST
Omaha, NE
CenturyLink Center (home of various Creighton University athletic programs)
Host: Creighton
Approximate miles from Durham, NC: 1200
Wichita State (American)
Kenpom projected record: 24-4 (15-3 in conference)
Number of games against Kenpom top 25 opponents (excluding tournaments): 4
Notes: The American poses a surprisingly high number of at-risk games for Wichita State. 2 other games barely missed the top 25 cut, as SMU is currently #27 on Kenpom. Wichita State should be really good, though, and with their move to a tougher conference from the MVC, they shouldn't be subject to their annual egregious under-seeding anymore. The fight with Kansas over this spot will be fun to follow. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wichita State and Kansas as the 1 and the 2 in this region in whatever order.
WEST
Los Angeles, CA
STAPLES Center (home of the Kings of the NHL and the Clippers and Lakers of the NBA)
Host: Pepperdine
Approximate miles from Durham, NC: 2500
Arizona (Pac-12)
Kenpom projected record: 25-4 (15-3 in conference)
Number of games against Kenpom top 25 opponents (excluding tournaments): 2
Notes: It would take a miserable coaching performance or string of significant injuries for Arizona not to get this spot.