SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
John Gasaway on why Duke will win the ACC (ESPN Insider):
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... lue-devils
With Louisville in the ACC now, this actually means something.
Here are 25 other previews ESPN did, but not all are by Gasaway, unfortunately. The UNC one is.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... basketball
I don't have Insider.
Duke Blue Devils
2013-14: 26-9 (13-5 ACC)
In-conference offense: 1.19 points per possession (first)
In-conference defense: 1.03 points allowed per possession (sixth)
Jahlil Okafor is the No. 1-ranked freshman in the nation, and the most recent bearers of that title have led us to expect Duke's new star will (A) make first-team all-conference (just like Andrew Wiggins, Nerlens Noel and Anthony Davis did), (B) quite possibly be a first-team All-American (like Davis; Wiggins made the second team) (C) be long gone by this time next year (like every national No. 1 recruit since Harrison Barnes).
Can Okafor possibly live up to these precedents? Yes, it's probable that he can.
Projected starting lineup
Pos. Name Year
C
Jahlil Okafor
Fr.
F
Amile Jefferson
Jr.
G
Rasheed Sulaimon
Jr.
G
Quinn Cook
Sr.
G
Tyus Jones
Fr.
Arguably the most specific and least vaporous information we have on Okafor is inconveniently dated. In the summer of 2013, he played for the USA U19 team coached by Billy Donovan at the FIBA World Championship in Prague. Evaluating an 18-year-old according to what he did 16 months ago in a tournament that included results like USA 88, Ivory Coast 29 is not ideal, obviously.
Still, take a gander at what Okafor did in these less-than-ideal analytic circumstances. Playing in a frontcourt that featured Aaron Gordon (selected No. 4 overall in last summer's NBA draft) and Montrezl Harrell (widely expected to be an All-American in 2014-15), Okafor was easily the most devastating per-possession scorer on the floor. When you make 77 percent of your 2s over the course of nine games as a co-featured scorer, you've had a pretty good tournament. Okafor was 17.
One possibility, then, is not so much that Okafor will be another Davis as that he might have a one-season impact more akin to what we saw from DeMarcus Cousins. As with Cousins in 2009-10, Okafor's minutes might be limited, whether due to conditioning (he's listed at 6-foot-11 and 270 pounds), fouls or both. As with Cousins, Okafor might turn out to be next to unstoppable when he has the ball in the paint, iffy at the line, good rather than great in terms of shot-blocking and simply too monstrous for words on the boards at both ends (his FIBA 2013 rebound percentages: 27.7 defensive; 17.0 offensive).
And a team coming off a tough loss to Mercer in the round of 64 of the NCAA tournament can use a guy like that. Duke closed out 2013-14 by allowing an Atlantic Sun team to score 78 points in 64 possessions. Associate head coach Jeff Capel doesn't mince words about last season's team. "More times than not it was not a group that was up to the standards of our basketball program defensively," he told me.
Last season no ACC team that made the NCAA tournament allowed conference opponents to shoot a higher percentage on 2s than did this Duke defense. Putting the 6-11 Okafor in the paint will help stem that tide, if only because he'll push Amile Jefferson -- who too often had to play center for the Blue Devils in 2013-14 -- to his more appropriate 4 spot (at which there's an opening now that Jabari Parker is in the NBA). The 6-9 junior has been an underappreciated offensive rebounder for the better part of two seasons now. Between Jefferson, Okafor and 7-0 junior Marshall Plumlee (dogged by injuries thus far but reportedly healthy now), the Devils should stand an excellent chance of rebounding the misses on their offensive end.
Duke
Robert Willett/Getty Images
Duke's Amile Jefferson is expected to thrive in his more natural power forward position.
At the wing, Rasheed Sulaimon will try to rally from a season during which he was more or less supplanted by Rodney Hood (and was thus, inevitably, made the subject of those dreaded "[Benched player X] swallows pride for good of team" headlines). A career 39 percent 3-point shooter, the 6-5 junior saw his effectiveness inside the arc plummet last season. In fact, when Capel says the Devils wing "needs to finish better," the coach is taking the words right out of hoop-math.com's (figurative) mouth: Sulaimon's conversion rate at the rim dropped by more than 10 percentage points from his freshman to sophomore season.
Sulaimon could end up playing alongside and/or sharing minutes with fellow Houston product Justise Winslow. The 6-6 freshman played on the same USA team as Okafor in the summer of 2013 and displayed a fair knack for both scoring and assists. Capel likes what Winslow -- who looks like he should be a football player -- brings to the table, and envisions the freshman as being able to guard any position from point guard through power forward.
The most experienced Blue Devil on the floor by far this season will be Quinn Cook, with 60 career starts to his credit. My understanding is there was an All-ACC team in 2013-14, yet somehow Cook didn't even rate honorable mention. That's puzzling, though part of the problem here might have been his own school referring to him as a "pass-first guard." If the 6-2 senior (with his 21.2 shot percentage) is a pass-first guard, so was Tyler Ennis last season (21.7) for Syracuse, the only difference being Cook's oh-so-rare attempts went in way more often (51 percent of the time inside the arc, 37 outside it).
Cook might see minutes at the point again this season, or he could play off the ball and leave the lead-guard duties to 6-1 freshman Tyus Jones. With Emmanuel Mudiay's decision to play professional ball in Asia this season, Jones has become the de facto highest-rated freshman point guard in the land. Termed a "throwback" by Capel (that's a compliment), Jones played with Okafor and Winslow in 2012 on the USA U17 team that won a gold medal in Lithuania. Additional backcourt depth will be provided by 6-5 sophomore Matt Jones and 6-4 freshman Grayson Allen.
Not that the Mercer Bears noticed or cared, but last season Duke had one of the finest offenses we've seen in recent seasons. And for this season's team to match that level of offense (1.19 points per trip in conference play) will be a very tall task, particularly when the new-look ACC harbors within its deep recesses the defensive likes of Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse and North Carolina.
Then again, adding Okafor to a rotation that already has experienced 3-point shooters and good offensive rebounders certainly sounds promising. And if Tyus Jones does pan out and the Blue Devils have Okafor on the floor alongside a two-headed, Cook-Jones, point guard monster, things could heat up quickly on offense, even in the post-Jabari era.
The safe bet is that somehow the Blue Devils will be excellent on offense: Duke has led the ACC in points scored per possession in each of the past five conference seasons. If this bet holds true, the team's ceiling will be determined largely by its defense. Just keep in mind, though, Okafor doesn't have to be Anthony Davis and Duke doesn't have to be a defensive juggernaut like Louisville. In 2012-13, the Blue Devils went 30-6 and made the Elite Eight with a fantastic offense and above-average D. Something like that sounds about right for this group