sjsj2448
All American
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- Nov 23, 2016
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Let's take a look at Duke's biggest competition (IMO): Arizona.
They lost 15.1 win shares with Markkanen, Simmons, Comanche and Allen departing for the NBA.
They return Rawle Alkins (4), Dusan Ristic (3.8), Allonzo Trier (3.1), Parker Jackson-Cartwright (2.9), Keanu Pinder (1.1)
DeAndre Ayton is their Bagley: 8 win shares.
Emmanuel Akot is similar to V.J. King of Louisville, so he's at 1.6 win shares.
Brandon Randolph is similar to Kobi Simmons (2.4) so we'll project him at 2.5 win shares.
Ira Lee is similar to Ike Anigbogu of UCLA, who posted 1.3 win shares, but will receive fewer minutes. Let's put him at 1 win share.
Alex Barcello is similar to Quentin Goodin of Xavier, who posted 0.7 win shares. Barcello likely won't receive as much burn given the Cats have PJC and Trier and Alkins. Let's place him at 0.5 win shares.
That's 13.8 win shares from the freshmen.
Ristic has averaged 1.1 win share increase per annum, so let's bump him up to 4.9 win shares.
Let's assume Rawle Alkins sees a modest increase because of Trier's return and bump him up to 5 win shares.
Trier only played half the games last year and posted 3.1 win shares. Let's say he gets 6.2 win shares.
Jackson-Carwright has averaged .7 increase in win shares. Let's bump him up to 3.6 win shares.
Let's just assume Pinder, who is the least talented on the roster, stays flat at 1.1 win shares.
That's 34.6 total win shares.
I fully anticipate a Duke-Arizona matchup in the national championship. Bagley vs. Ayton. Allen, Duval, and Trent vs. Trier, Alkins, and PJC. Bolden and Wendell versus Ristic and Ira Lee.
They lost 15.1 win shares with Markkanen, Simmons, Comanche and Allen departing for the NBA.
They return Rawle Alkins (4), Dusan Ristic (3.8), Allonzo Trier (3.1), Parker Jackson-Cartwright (2.9), Keanu Pinder (1.1)
DeAndre Ayton is their Bagley: 8 win shares.
Emmanuel Akot is similar to V.J. King of Louisville, so he's at 1.6 win shares.
Brandon Randolph is similar to Kobi Simmons (2.4) so we'll project him at 2.5 win shares.
Ira Lee is similar to Ike Anigbogu of UCLA, who posted 1.3 win shares, but will receive fewer minutes. Let's put him at 1 win share.
Alex Barcello is similar to Quentin Goodin of Xavier, who posted 0.7 win shares. Barcello likely won't receive as much burn given the Cats have PJC and Trier and Alkins. Let's place him at 0.5 win shares.
That's 13.8 win shares from the freshmen.
Ristic has averaged 1.1 win share increase per annum, so let's bump him up to 4.9 win shares.
Let's assume Rawle Alkins sees a modest increase because of Trier's return and bump him up to 5 win shares.
Trier only played half the games last year and posted 3.1 win shares. Let's say he gets 6.2 win shares.
Jackson-Carwright has averaged .7 increase in win shares. Let's bump him up to 3.6 win shares.
Let's just assume Pinder, who is the least talented on the roster, stays flat at 1.1 win shares.
That's 34.6 total win shares.
I fully anticipate a Duke-Arizona matchup in the national championship. Bagley vs. Ayton. Allen, Duval, and Trent vs. Trier, Alkins, and PJC. Bolden and Wendell versus Ristic and Ira Lee.