I‘m somewhat between the two groups and think that even the 40+ crowd is going to have a challenge given how many layers of management these companies are tending to have now. My role and level is really crowded after a bunch of projects have been cancelled and I’ve pretty candidly told management there’s too many of us because it’s true and I can’t help myself. I don’t manage people right now and my manager (fourth manager this year) is a level below me.
SWEs should be ok IMO at the top companies, I’d be more worried about newer grads with three or less YOE who are finding it increasingly more difficult to land a permanent role at FAANGs. Which means more of them going to startups that have a 99% of failing and sending them back to their parents’ house to regroup over and over, or get the jobs that the other 99% take which pay the median $90k or whatever. For top performers there will still be SWEs that are worth $1M/yr in TC, but the glut of mid-level SWEs making $600k at the big names will get squeezed down. Like everything else in society, greater disparity between the top and the ”middle”. I’ve also noticed more people fighting over projects and scope, so the writing is on the wall. I don’t know how this will all work with visa employees, but I’d expect that to trend down sharply in this scenario.
In terms of RSU targets, it’s something that can self correct somewhat. I get quarterly shares next week and the company can buy those off the open market for like 25% of what they were when they calculated my shares at award. Stock drop will also right-size companies as more people leave since their pay has been cut in half, just don’t backfill them. That’s why widely rumored layoffs aren’t really happening, it’s just a slow trickle of people out.