Pantone287
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 13,509
Fuckkkkkkkkk. DK and Fanduel both just now started offering $5k risk-free first bets, which I am of course no longer eligible for. There goes thousands and thousands of free dollars.
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SignUp Now!I assume linking a bank account in my name to someone not me is risky in some not trivial way, or else I would fully be doing this. I can probably get some family members to do it, at least.Time to convince random women to let you create accounts for them and give them a 20% cut of your profits.
The $5k "refund" bet promo of which I actually read the terms ran until 3/25, I think.So uh, for the procrastinators out there who didn't sign up, how and how long do we have to get these thousands of dollars?
This is interesting, because I would've assumed it's easiest for them to just track an account's overall net winnings and limit based on that.The reason live betting is so much better than pregame betting is you won’t get limited nearly as quickly. I’m massively limited on every book after 3 years of betting on promos, and most books will limit you after only a few months now. I can’t get down more than $8 on many bets, though I can still get good amounts down on mainline bets like UNC +5.5 or UNC +190 at Duke. The limiting is largely based on closing line value, or CLV. If you get in at a good price, which later moves in your favor as expected, you’re getting CLV, and the books can easily track players who consistently get CLV. With live lines, the books can’t track anything.
Bet365 is an absolute goldmine for live odds that are +EV. MGM as well. You definitely don’t want to burn your Bet365 or MGM account with anything other than live bets if they come to NC. But really, beyond these initial promos, you don’t want to hedge at all, because finding the best lines to hedge with is almost always going to entail getting CLV, which is counterintuitively terrible in the long run for making as much money as possible.
No, I never had anything more than $1,000 promos when I started. I wouldn’t end up hedging more than like $3,000 on the other side. The best promo was from MGM - they matched an initial deposit of $1,000, with the only catch being you had to play through the $1,000 1x within 30 days. That’s awesome for the book, too, as it should develop some gambling addicts. I was betting about $50 a night on random games I was interested in, losing about 5% to juice, so a profit of $950. An actual fun promo.
On the question of limiting people just for winning, yes, that definitely happens. It’s a matter of how long you can consistently win from one book before they enforce draconian limits on your account. You slow that process down dramatically by not placing lots of bets with CLV.
If you’re hedging against FanDuel free bets, definitely do not hedge on that same FanDuel account - this should be obvious for account health. But also try to avoid hedging too often on other books with outlier lines that will inevitably bring CLV. Once you have enough of a bankroll built up and you’re playing solely with house money, I would strongly recommend not hedging at all. The sooner you move to +EV betting and away from hedging, the better. Hedging is almost always -EV.
For example, the “boosts” on FanDuel each night are usually good bets that return anywhere from 5-25%. If you simply max bet those boosts every night, you’ll make like $1,000 a year with very little risk since the sample size will be fairly large. Confirm with a basic promo Twitter account that they’re good before betting them, and you’ll do even better.
Also, there was a WSJ podcast last week about an otherwise normal woman who lost $400k to gambling (casino app stuff, not sports). Don’t do this. Call the state gambling commission and have yourself banned from gambling if you lose even 1% of that.
Yeah, just finished that one today. Just have to remember to use each bonus bet within 24 hours of it arriving, as they do expire after a day.Wow, just saw the new Fanatics promo. $100 bet and get for a $100 free bet every day for 10 days. That’s not normal for them; I would register now before it’s taken away. I’m churning through it starting today. Texas Tech ML -190 hedged against +180 on MGM, loss of about $2 for a $100 free bet.