UNC Basketball 2020-2021

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Last time the UNC thread was started by this poster in this manner, UNC’s season was an abject failure in every conceivable way, which ended with a black swan event crippling all of human civilization for a few months. So let’s run it back and hope for a similar fate for this program next season.

 

[aiw]

There are only 2 outcomes: FF/NC or no postseason

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It raises an interesting question. Which of these two options would Duke-Forum choose?

A) COVID-19 comes back in waves and a functional vaccine isn’t ready for mass distribution for 2 more years. This Great Depression lifestyle continues on and off for 1-2 month intervals. Millions remain unemployed in America, thousands of whom become clinically depressed, hundreds of whom commit suicide or die from hunger. 401k plans sink much further from their current levels due to the realization by investors that COVID-19 will last much longer than expected. There are no sports at all for the next 2 years. There is no college basketball season.

B) COVID-19 is defeated resoundingly by mankind’s ingenuity, brilliance and resolve. We have our normal lives back again, with antibody testing, good treatment options and an ideal vaccine quickly on its way to mass production. UNC wins the national championship on a buzzer-beating post-up turnaround fadeaway midrange jumper by Walker Kessler, over the outstretched arm of Patrick Tape. Final score: UNC 65, Duke 64 (3OT).

 

[torontoduke]

A 3-OT game in the 60s sounds lit AF

#worsethan2017

 

[niveklaen]

In which scenario does K retire?

 

[rome8180]

Kessler plummeted in the rankings. But let's be honest. He's a skill-based big at UNC. He's going to be good.

Meanwhile, Caleb Love jumped 17 spots. I'll believe he's the 6th best player in the class when I see it. But if he is, UNC is a top 10 team easily.

 

[uncy12]

I like Caleb Love. Think he’s better than Cole Anthony. Sharpe and Kessler are probably rated appropriately. Will probably better multi year guys. Puff Johnson’s drop concerns me a little bit but he played on a disaster team this year in high school which hurt him.

 

[rome8180]

UNC with an arsenal of bigs and a really good PG is a recipe for a strong team. Lord help me, I sound like Slap.

The big weakness I see is on the wing, but Roy doesn't know how to use a good small forward anyway.

 

[physicsfactor]

Will UNC be able to make enough shots to win in the postseason? I know Roy is anti-3s, but it seems like his last several nationally relevant teams could all shoot.

 

[rome8180]

He won a title with a team that ranked in the bottom 25 in 3pt volume and top 25 in midrange volume. Roy somehow resists all trends in modern basketball and gets away with it.

You're right that UNC's 3pt percentages have been good on their successful teams.

 

[rome8180]

BTW, I was looking up UNC's roster from last year to see who was returning and might be a good shooter. How was Brandon Robinson a senior? UNC is sure churning out some forgettable careers lately.

Anthony Harris was a good shooter on an incredibly small sample. Kessler should be a good shooter. I believe they landed at least one lower ranked shooter as well, but who knows how much he'll contribute immediately. The scouting reports on Caleb Love make him sound like Coby White (score-first, pick-and-roll guard with a tight handle), but I couldn't find any stats on his shooting. His 6'9" wingspan is impressive.

 

[physicsfactor]

Yeah, UNC certainly is never a high volume 3PAs team. It just seems that most of his very good teams can shoot. 2012 and 2016 were bad outside shooting teams that could have won it all. But 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2017, 2018, and 2019 were all above average to very good shooting teams - even if on small volumes.

 

[uncy12]

I think Love, Davis, Harris, Walton, Johnson, Kessler all have potential to be good shooters. Relying on freshmen that besides Love aren’t OAD is very dicey. It’s hard to be anywhere close to how bad they were last year. I’m just happy Andy Platek won’t be playing anymore

 

[physicsfactor]

I don’t know who any of those middle four guys are, so I’ll take your word for it. I’ll go into terrified Slap mode if UNC can shoot along with having all those bigs.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Walton and Johnson can shoot but I don't really think they're going to be contributors for UNC next year. Sure, shooting is a skill, but Roy isn't some magician who is going to take a barely top 100 player and a guy ranked #62 and turn them into guys logging 20+ minutes on the wing ripping the nets from 3. Logic and rationality tells us that it will take some time for both to develop into quality players, and also that Roy's system isn't necessarily great for young wing players like it is for a point guard or post player.

I think the best case scenario for a guy like Walton is Kenny Williams, and again, that's best case scenario. That's a solid player and a valuable piece, for sure, but they don't have wing talent like they used to. Walton, Puff Johnson, Leaky Black and Platek are not Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston, etc.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Yeah, UNC certainly is never a high volume 3PAs team. It just seems that most of his very good teams can shoot. 2012 and 2016 were bad outside shooting teams that could have won it all. But 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2017, 2018, and 2019 were all above average to very good shooting teams - even if on small volumes.

So it's probably impossible to gauge but I really think UNC benefitted from 2016-2019 offensively from their decrease in recruiting. Crazy, I know, but because Roy struggled to recruit it meant it was much less Roy was trotting out 2 big man line-ups. In 2019 Luke Maye was their 4 and he could stretch the floor. In 2016-2017 they still played a lot of 2 big man line-ups, but again, they were able to generate enough spacing to have a little more for drives and openings on the perimeter because Brice Johnson was able to at least space out to the mid-range.

Moving forward, I think UNC is going to return back to really working the 2 post players inside. If we're being honest, Brooks and Bacot are going to be very good next season and Roy is going to pound the ball in there. Sharpe is strictly a low post player. Kessler can operate on the outside, but predicting Roy, I think he's going to play hardball with Kessler and force him into the system, and that early on he won't see big minutes until he picks up Roy's system and rebounds well. My bet is that Kessler looks more like Zeller at UNC, almost always playing back to the basket and running UNC's secondary than he does Luke Maye.

On paper they're bringing is in guys who can shoot, but they're not necessarily highly ranked or supremely talented. Being able to shoot well doesn't mean you're a good player, as we've seen with guys like Alex O'Connell and Jordan Tucker. And lastly, I really think their spacing will become an issue. As the sport continues to evolve, it's going to be harder for Roy to continue rolling out dominant offenses like he used deploying the exact same offense from 2009. The offense will be effective, but it's going to lose its edge, IMO.

 

[aiw]

Johnson is Cam Johnson's brother. One of the others is named 'Ant'. That's all I got on the middle 4.

 

[christophero30]

Caleb Love ranked fifth in the class could be a big upgrade over Anthony.

 

[DurhamSon]

This is good for us, and even better for UNC.

But in reality, at this rate a season isn't in the cards. Too much legal liability ablund. Which means we're looking at all potential OADs becoming NADs by NBA draft rules, and likely any other player getting an extra year of eligability. So we get 5th year senior Goldwire against 24 year old Garrison Brooks in 2022, and will likely face all their other recruits until they are 23/24 years old as well, while none of our players stay that long.

I need @StopThePumpFakesShav and @rome8180 to pull the thread on this.

 

[sjsj2448]

UNC wakes up this season.

Love is good and they'll just bludgeon the teams with hapless 6'8 whites at center.

However, they don't have the wing talent to match up with Duke when used correctly.

Would expect a 3rd or 4th place reg season finish for them.