2017 ACC Tournament

[DrKlahn]

Here are my thoughts on odds of winning, in reverse order:

15. Boston College (Kenpom odds: .001%): This team plays in the ACC.
14. Pittsburgh (KP: .09%): Appear to have given up in the last week or so.
13. NC State (KP: .009%): I could see this team getting past Clemson, but not past 38 minutes of Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones in a revenge game.
12. Clemson (KP: .5%): Terrible season rewarded with a terrible draw.
11. Georgia Tech (KP: .05%): Probably needs two wins, with the second coming against a rested Virginia.
10. Miami (KP: 1.9%): My first break with the seeding. This is a decent enough team, I just don't like the draw.
9. Virginia Tech (KP: 1.0%): Looked overmatched against Wake, their likely first opponent.
8. Wake Forest (KP: 2.1%): If these guys didn't have to play 5 games, I would call them a legit darkhorse, especially since they won't play a team with serious fan support until the semis at the earliest.
7. Florida State (KP: 14.1%): On paper, I'm crazy here. Not only does Ken love them, but their depth makes them a really attractive pick for the conference tourney format. I don't love their recent form or their play away from home.
6. Virginia (KP: 19.1%): I'm a bit surprised to see that UVA beat Notre Dame by 17 in South Bend. That's right before they went into a tailspin, and I doubt they could do that again, with ND holding the advantage of rest.
5. Syracuse (KP: 0.7%): God I love how this draw sets up for them, it's a carbon copy of the 2006 Big East tournament run. Will have fantastic crowd support that will become massive if they beat Miami.
4. Duke (KP: 7.7%): I mean who the hell knows. I'm going to assume that Duke will play to win, since that's how Duke always handles this, and I'm going to assume that crowd support will be great. If Louisville weren't the quarterfinal opponent I think this would be very doable.
3. Notre Dame (KP: 6.8%): They've got a good tournament track record, a great draw in the easier half of the bracket, and what I assume will be solid fan support in NYC. They just strike me as the likeliest team to be playing in the final from that half.
2. Louisville (KP: 20.0%): As much as I'd like to call them the favorite...
1. North Carolina (KP: 25.9%): ...we all know how this is going down. Heels over ND in a runaway, with Justin Jackson announcing afterwards that he will stay for his senior season.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Clemson -6.5 over NC State

Wake Forest -13 over Boston College

Pitt -1.5 over Georgia Tech

I think we want the team with a top 3 quick/athletic PG in the country to win and be Duke's opponent, since the alternative is even worse for Duke. This is Duke basketball 2017 - optimistically hoping to watch Matt Jones defend Dennis Smith for 2 hours again.

I'm sure the Duke coaching staff has learned that Matt can't defend a player like Dennis, though, so we should be fine.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I would really like to see someone lead off a press conference with K during this tournament with: "So you have been pretty fucking retarded this season, it seems, in several ways. Can you explain?"

 

[rhfarmer]

Realistically, who is going to guard Smith?

Jones--no
Kennard--no
Allen--no
Frank--maybe?

Frank has been picked on pretty badly lately, but at least he is not going to offer up a turd sandwich on offense.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Well first, NC State would have to win a ball game. I'm not sure that's possible, Clemson isn't that bad.

 

[TS9]

If we play State, let Smith do whatever he's going to do and just don't get beat by the other players.

 

[physicsfactor]

Probably won't even have to let him

 

[TS9]

Sometimes we get so fixated on what Smith did that we forget that Ted Kapita was allowed to go for 14 and 10.

 

[DrKlahn]

I did not see that game, but Kapita's line is what stood out. It did not appear that Smith made a huge impact until the final 10 minutes, which would not have mattered if Duke had the sort of big lead that they really ought to have against State. Whoever they play on Wednesday, it would greatly help for Duke to jump out to a 20+ point lead early and take the air out of any upset bid. That's something they seem incapable of doing, for reasons unknown.

 

[rome8180]

I doubt State wins anyway.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Maybe Defensive All-Conference player, Matt Jones, can contain Flowerblossom.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[deepdarkblue]

Laura, go fuck yourself.

 

[TS9]

Honestly, losing at home to State should've disqualified us from postseason consideration.

 

[niveklaen]

Bring on Clemson :)

 

[bdotling]

Another 5/12 seed matchup/upset. Can't wait!

 

[aiw]

She's so gross.

 

[rome8180]

Pitt-GT is enjoyable so far. I wish Duke was better and UNC was worse so I could enjoy this time of year more.

 

[Inveigle]

Unfortunately I have to root for Syracuse or Miami regardless.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Miami -1.5 over Syracuse
Duke -6.5 over Clemson
Wake Forest -2 over Virginia Tech
Virginia -10 over Pittsburgh

Interesting that there is no bump for being fresh relative to a team on the back end of a back to back. This is in line with my anecdotal memories of teams generally doing surprisingly well in their 2nd games of these conference tournaments despite facing rested opponents.