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The NCAA in recent years has used travel distance from school to regional site as the primary factor in regional placement. If that remains the approach this season, it means Duke – if it winds up as the No. 1 overall seed – would definitely go to the East, since Durham is considerably closer to NYC than Memphis.

That scenario was somewhat controversial last season for Kansas fans who didn't understand and/or weren't aware of the principle. Kansas fans bought a bunch of tickets to the Chicago regional, thinking that was Kansas' most likely destination, but instead the committee sent Kansas to Louisville, which is something like five miles closer to Lawrence than Chicago.
 
I didn't know there were two East regions this year. Sucks even worse than Duke couldn't get a 1-seed.
 
Will be interesting to see what they do with Duke if they're playing like a top seed at the end of the year but the resume doesn't bear it out. I feel like a 3 seed with a soft bracket is the compromise.
 
Remember way back last month, when we thought this was quite reasonable?


SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
We're about 3 months away from the NCAA Tournament, so it's time once again to carve the top seeds in stone.

1. East - New York Knicks and New York Rangers arena - Villanova

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 4.
Because of Josh Hart's greatness, having a 20% defensive rebounding rate while playing at PG/SG/SF, Villanova hasn't had any defensive rebounding issues despite a lack of bigs. With a win over Temple, they will have five top 100 kenpom wins in the non-conference schedule (compare with Duke's three), and playing in the Big East will not hurt their perception - the Big East is the 3rd strongest conference on kenpom behind the Big 12 and the ACC.

2. South - Memphis Grizzlies arena - Duke

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 5
Let's suspend disbelief for a moment and convince ourselves that Duke will not suffer several more injuries/plane crashes/terrorist attacks/cancellation of season by President before now and seeding time. The current kenpom rating and projected losses are based somewhat on a preseason rating that included all of Duke's players close to 100%, and somewhat on 11 games so far in which Duke was not close to 100%. Duke at full strength, which may happen pretty soon, should have a good chance at beating the kenpom projection for the rest of the season and finishing with 3-5 losses. With 11 of Duke's 18 ACC games being against current top 30 teams, 3-5 losses should be good enough to contend with Villanova for the overall 1 spot (possibly giving Duke the option of choosing the East), and should lock Duke in to no worse than the overall 2 spot.

3. West - San Jose Sharks arena - UCLA

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 4
It should come down to UCLA or Gonzaga for the West 1-seed. The Pac 12 is very weak compared to the other power conferences and the Big East, which is both good and bad for UCLA. Only having four regular season losses would look good, but it may not be enough to take the West 1-seed over a geographical transplant with a few more losses from a much tougher conference (e.g., Duke or Kansas). Gonzaga is expected to lose 3 games, but they have far fewer "loseable" games than UCLA does, so it's not unreasonable to expect Gonzaga to finish with only 1-2 losses. Gonzaga has only five more games against top 150 teams: 76 Tennessee (at Nashville), 16 St. Mary's x2, 56 BYU x2. If Gonzaga finishes with three losses, I doubt they get any consideration for a 1-seed.

4. Midwest - Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri - Kansas

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 6
With a win over Davidson, Kansas will have six wins over top 100 teams and one loss to #14 Indiana on a neutral court to begin the season. The Big 12 is tough enough that Kansas, as usual, will probably be in the 1-seed conversation with up to eight losses. The worst team on Kansas's conference schedule is #72 Texas. The 2nd worst is #55 TCU. Everyone else in the Big 12 is a top 50 team.

Others (projected losses in parentheses):
5. Kentucky (5)
6. Gonzaga (3)
7. Wisconsin (7)
8. Baylor (7)
9. North Carolina (7)
10. Virginia (8)
11. Louisville (8)
12. West Virginia (7)
Click to expand...
 
I know this is a pipe dream, but I wonder how the committee will handle seeding if K comes back and turns the team around (lol).
 
I remember being pissed because our easy nonconference schedule and brutal conference schedule meant we probably wouldn't get a 1 seed.

deepdarkblue said:
Remember way back last month, when we thought this was quite reasonable?


SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
We're about 3 months away from the NCAA Tournament, so it's time once again to carve the top seeds in stone.

1. East - New York Knicks and New York Rangers arena - Villanova

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 4.
Because of Josh Hart's greatness, having a 20% defensive rebounding rate while playing at PG/SG/SF, Villanova hasn't had any defensive rebounding issues despite a lack of bigs. With a win over Temple, they will have five top 100 kenpom wins in the non-conference schedule (compare with Duke's three), and playing in the Big East will not hurt their perception - the Big East is the 3rd strongest conference on kenpom behind the Big 12 and the ACC.

2. South - Memphis Grizzlies arena - Duke

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 5
Let's suspend disbelief for a moment and convince ourselves that Duke will not suffer several more injuries/plane crashes/terrorist attacks/cancellation of season by President before now and seeding time. The current kenpom rating and projected losses are based somewhat on a preseason rating that included all of Duke's players close to 100%, and somewhat on 11 games so far in which Duke was not close to 100%. Duke at full strength, which may happen pretty soon, should have a good chance at beating the kenpom projection for the rest of the season and finishing with 3-5 losses. With 11 of Duke's 18 ACC games being against current top 30 teams, 3-5 losses should be good enough to contend with Villanova for the overall 1 spot (possibly giving Duke the option of choosing the East), and should lock Duke in to no worse than the overall 2 spot.

3. West - San Jose Sharks arena - UCLA

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 4
It should come down to UCLA or Gonzaga for the West 1-seed. The Pac 12 is very weak compared to the other power conferences and the Big East, which is both good and bad for UCLA. Only having four regular season losses would look good, but it may not be enough to take the West 1-seed over a geographical transplant with a few more losses from a much tougher conference (e.g., Duke or Kansas). Gonzaga is expected to lose 3 games, but they have far fewer "loseable" games than UCLA does, so it's not unreasonable to expect Gonzaga to finish with only 1-2 losses. Gonzaga has only five more games against top 150 teams: 76 Tennessee (at Nashville), 16 St. Mary's x2, 56 BYU x2. If Gonzaga finishes with three losses, I doubt they get any consideration for a 1-seed.

4. Midwest - Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri - Kansas

Projected losses on kenpom (before conference tournaments): 6
With a win over Davidson, Kansas will have six wins over top 100 teams and one loss to #14 Indiana on a neutral court to begin the season. The Big 12 is tough enough that Kansas, as usual, will probably be in the 1-seed conversation with up to eight losses. The worst team on Kansas's conference schedule is #72 Texas. The 2nd worst is #55 TCU. Everyone else in the Big 12 is a top 50 team.

Others (projected losses in parentheses):
5. Kentucky (5)
6. Gonzaga (3)
7. Wisconsin (7)
8. Baylor (7)
9. North Carolina (7)
10. Virginia (8)
11. Louisville (8)
12. West Virginia (7)
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
Some guy just wanted to fight me - literally - when I said there was a chance that Duke doesn't make the NCAA tournament. He was already irate when I said Jayson Tatum's favorite shot is the dumbest shot in basketball.

If Duke gets an NIT invite, do they turn it down?
 
I hope not. I have no interest in actually watching a Duke team play NIT games, but I think turning down the invite sends a disgusting message to the rest of college basketball.

That said, after what we saw during bowl season with various pro-bound players, it would be fascinating to see what roster we would actually trot out there.
 
Simmons didn't play in the NIT, right? I assume none of our OADs would. Javin and Jack White would get to shine though.
 
Looking forward to being the 8 seed in Gonzaga's bracket and having a 2014 Kentucky-like resurgence. Yes, I'm high on cough medicine right now.
 
Is there a place where you can find odds on Duke making the NCAA tournament?
 
Not sure I fully understand why UNC is a 2 seed (and the highest 2 seed), while Duke is the last 4 seed. Same number of losses. UNC's best wins are home vs. FSU, neutral vs. Wisconsin, home Notre Dame. Duke's are home UNC, neutral Florida, road Notre Dame. Is it just recency? Most of Duke's losses coming in a 3 week period, causing a massive tumble in the human polls?
 
I was confused by that as well. Maybe they are assigning a lot of merit to UNC's victory over Wisconsin?

StopThePumpFakesShav said:
Not sure I fully understand why UNC is a 2 seed (and the highest 2 seed), while Duke is the last 4 seed. Same number of losses. UNC's best wins are home vs. FSU, neutral vs. Wisconsin, home Notre Dame. Duke's are home UNC, neutral Florida, road Notre Dame. Is it just recency? Most of Duke's losses coming in a 3 week period, causing a massive tumble in the human polls?
Click to expand...
 
Those seeds would've made a hell of a lot more sense last weekend, IMO.
 
Is it because they are tied for first in the ACC? If so, they are giving a lot of weight to a one-game difference.
 
I'm not sure they did much other than look at the current polls and make a few random tweaks.
 
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