Duke Basketball 2017-2018

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Slight edge in EM for Virginia. 4 more wins out of 18 games.

 

[DurhamSon]

Some teams moving up into the top 75 padded our Q1 stats slightly:
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live

I still can't believe Xavier is going to get a 1 seed over us just because UVA doesn't play in their conference.

 

[DurhamSon]

Duke is probably a 5-8 point favorite over (1) Kansas and (1) Xavier on a neutral court. I get the "reg season champion" sounds nice but at some point doesn't reason have to prevail?

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

The Committee knows this, which is why they need to give weak 1-seeds easier brackets, to save face. The Nova and UVA brackets are going to be loaded and almost certainly include Duke.

 

[LineM]

The Committee knows this, which is why they need to give weak 1-seeds easier brackets, to save face. The Nova and UVA brackets are going to be loaded and almost certainly include Duke.

Hello, Nostradamus.

 

[sjsj2448]

If anyone is scared of Notre SHAME, you seriously need to DUKE THE FUCK UP.

Yes, Bonzie has historically killed us but he's never faced a front line of the zone like we have. I am currently purchasing all Bagley/Carter stock and SHORTING Bonzie shares.

 

[aiw]

Be less obvious, Tony Bennett

 

[torontoduke]

If anyone is scared of Notre SHAME, you seriously need to DUKE THE FUCK UP.

Yes, Bonzie has historically killed us but he's never faced a front line of the zone like we have. I am currently purchasing all Bagley/Carter stock and SHORTING Bonzie shares.

I'll Duke the Fuck Up, but I respect ND and how well they have played Duke in recent years. It will be an interesting matchup.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Kevin Keatts was robbed. Maybe you don't give him coach of the year yet, but he's damn sure better than third.

 

[LastHearth]

Kevin Keatts was robbed. Maybe you don't give him coach of the year yet, but he's damn sure better than third.

If they didn't choke the game at GTech and finished 3rd instead of 5th he'd have gotten 2nd.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Here are the defensive efficiency numbers since Duke switched to zone full time. I don’t think these calculations are exactly how Pomeroy would do it, but it’s the best we have with basic math.

At Georgia Tech
70 possessions
69 GT points
0.986 GT points per possession
1.047 GT season adjusted offensive efficiency
0.925 Duke game adjusted defensive efficiency

Virginia Tech
58 poss
52 VT pts
0.897 VT ppp
1.159 VT season adj oeff
0.635 Duke game adj deff

At Clemson
66 poss
57 Clem pts
0.864 Clem ppp
1.133 Clem season adj oeff
0.595 Duke game adj deff

Louisville
71 poss
56 UL pts
0.789 UL ppp
1.126 UL season adj oeff
0.452 Duke game adj deff

Syracuse
64 poss
44 Cuse pts
0.688 Cuse ppp
1.082 Cuse season adj oeff
0.294 Duke game adj deff

At Virginia Tech
66 poss
64 VT pts
0.970 VT ppp
1.159 VT season adj oeff
0.781 Duke game adj deff

North Carolina
70 poss
64 UNC pts
0.914 UNC ppp
1.221 UNC season adj oeff
0.608 Duke game adj deff

OVERALL
7 games
465 poss
Weighted average Duke adj deff = 0.615
All-Kenpom history #1 season adj deff = 0.839 (2018 Virginia)

If the past 7 games is an accurate representation of Duke’s true quality on defense, then the gap from Duke’s defense to the best defense in Kenpom history is equal to the gap between that team and the #190 defense this season.

Sadly, this will all be meaningless due to horrendous seeding by the Selection Committee.

 

[CMon85]

If we win the ACC tournament we are absolutely a 1 seed.

Virginia is getting one and the winner of Xavier/Nova will get one.

That leaves:

Duke, Kansas, BE loser and Michigan State IMO.

I'd love to steal the MW region as a 1 seed.

 

[dukeboy911]

^I'm all about that 1 in the Midwest. Think that's our ceiling.

 

[burksballer20]

A 1 seed in the MW would be glorious

 

[Slap the Floor]

Who would be our 2 in the Midwest? Xavier? Kansas? Michigan State?

 

[CMon85]

If Xavier is one then I think it would be the higher rates of KU/MSU. If X isn't a one I would guess them as the 2 and Michigan as the 3.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This might be the best we can hope for:

South
1 Virginia
2 Auburn/Tennessee
3 Texas Tech/WVU

East
1 Villanova
2 UNC
3 Michigan

Midwest
1 Duke
2 Kansas
3 Purdue

West
1 Xavier
2 MSU/Cincy
3 Cincy/MSU

 

[CMon85]

Imo we win the ACCT were the Midwest 1. If we lose we're the east 2.

 

[aiw]

Hahahahahahhahahahahha!

 

[Thain]

That was some of the dumbest shit I have ever read.