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Duke Football 2018-2019 Discussion

Bill Connelly's preview of this year's team. Emphasizes high variance, but projects us as a top-40 team.

The good news: after four years between 56th and 75th, Duke is projected to rise to 40th in S&P+. The combination of returning production and recent defensive performance should lead to nice improvement.

The bad news: pretty much everyone in the ACC is going to be capable of a top-40 performance this year. The league might only have one or two true elite contenders, but the depth could be absurd. And with a non-conference schedule that features trips to Northwestern and Baylor, there are almost no sure wins or sure losses.

Per S&P+, their win probability is between 43 and 60 percent in seven games. With a full offensive rebound — certainly conceivable with a high-upside RB and a high-continuity passing game — and some bounces, Duke could be looking at a run to 10 wins. But if the offenses is only decent, and the defense slips a bit with a change in leadership, the floor could be equally low.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...04/duke-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster
 
I think this is right. As I've said here before, given the relative improvement in the ACC, I don't think we should have started the Baylor series. I think that game should be against a Tulane or something, as it would raise the yearly floor to bowl game qualifier. If we're gonna set our sights between 6-9 wins going forward, I don't think the prestige of playing a Baylor outweighs the risk it brings. Or if you want to play Baylor, then get rid of Northwestern when that series runs out (actually a better team than Baylor but with less cache). It's not like we have the talent to make the playoffs, so SOS seems relatively meaningless.
 
Yeah, teams like Duke have zero incentive to schedule difficult toss up games v Power 5 teams. Just go play ECU every once in awhile and mix in games with the service academies and regional mid majors like Georgia Southern or Liberty
 
There's no reason whatsoever for us to schedule two Power 5 nonconference teams. Play one low-end P5 school (Baylor and NW do fit the bill there at least) and three other teams that we are almost certain to beat, so 3-1 is the floor entering ACC play. The goal at Duke should always be to get to six wins. That's all most of the fanbase expects.
 
Only thing I can think of is it might affect recruiting, short term and long term. Duke has been good at manipulating RPI in basketball forever, so the football scheduling (Alabama?) has always confused me. If the AD and coaches think recruiting would be absolute trash if they only scheduled NC Central, Army, ECU and Tulane each year, then I would defer to them on that. Duke certainly has the cash to outbid other schools to get those home games, but another issue is it’s not worth it to them, because they don’t make it back in ticket sales and concessions.
 
I'm flipping and flopping on this issue every year. On the one hand I don't care who Duke plays but on the other hand we need six wins to get a bowl.

Bama is going to be a tough game to start the year next season and we could get banged up before the year even starts. But I believe the team and coaches will make the most of this opportunity and at least get a FG against them.
 
Inveigle said:
I'm flipping and flopping on this issue every year. On the one hand I don't care who Duke plays but on the other hand we need six wins to get a bowl.

Bama is going to be a tough game to start the year next season and we could get banged up before the year even starts. But I believe the team and coaches will make the most of this opportunity and at least get a FG against them.
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Do we even have a kicker?
 
rhfarmer said:
Inveigle said:
I'm flipping and flopping on this issue every year. On the one hand I don't care who Duke plays but on the other hand we need six wins to get a bowl.

Bama is going to be a tough game to start the year next season and we could get banged up before the year even starts. But I believe the team and coaches will make the most of this opportunity and at least get a FG against them.
Click to expand...
Do we even have a kicker?
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yeah, Parker is a RS-Senior next season if he doesn't get thrown out of school. He can make them up thru 45 yards out.
 
So I just looked up his 2017 stats, and he made 17 of 21? How is that possible? I only remember Duke missing every kick attempted. Maybe I'm thinking of the kid the year before.
 
physicsfactor said:
So I just looked up his 2017 stats, and he made 17 of 21? How is that possible? I only remember Duke missing every kick attempted. Maybe I'm thinking of the kid the year before.
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Yeah, was the guy the year before.
 
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