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Duke Travels To Tallahassee Saturday

Inveigle

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Jan 20, 2014
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Duke v Florida State


Florida State hosts Duke inside a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium as part of Homecoming activities on the FSU campus in a primetime matchup on ABC. Florida State, which is also celebrating its inaugural Seminole Heritage game, is playing on ABC for the sixth time in seven games this season.

» The Seminoles defeated Syracuse 41-3 last week to improve to 6-0 overall and 4-0 in the ACC. The overall and ACC records are FSU’s best start in each category since 2015. Florida State’s defense held the Orange to three points for the second straight game in the series, marking the sixth time in program history the Seminoles held an ACC opponent to three or fewer points in back-to-back games.

» Florida State is No. 4 in this week’s Associated Press poll. It is the seventh consecutive week FSU has been ranked in the top-5, the program’s longest streak since 2013-14 when Florida State was in the top-5 for 27 consecutive polls.

» The Seminoles extended their winning streak to 12 games, the longest active streak in the ACC and the 3rd-longest active streak in the country. During its streak, Florida State has outscored its opponents 506-219.

» FSU has scored at least 30 points in 12 straight games, the longest active streak in the ACC, the 2nd-longest active streak in the nation and the 2nd-longest streak in ACC history, trailing only FSU’s 17 games from 2012-14.

» Florida State is one of two teams ranked in the top-20 in red zone offense and red zone defense. FSU’s offense ranks 8th in the country having converted 95.8 percent of its red zone opportunities into points, and the defense has held opponents to points on 71.4 percent of red zone trips to rank 16th nationally.

» The Seminoles are one of seven teams nationally to have a receiver and a rusher with a three-touchdown game this season. Keon Coleman caught a career-high three scores vs. No. 5 LSU, and Trey Benson tied his single-game career- high with three rushing scores vs. Southern Miss. Coleman is one of 24 receivers nationally with a three-touchdown game this year, and Benson is one of 43 players with three rushing scores in a game.

» Florida State’s defense has faced 35 plays inside their 10-yard line this season and allowed just nine touchdowns. In the 45-24 win over No. 5 LSU, the Seminoles faced 10 snaps inside their own 5-yard line and allowed only two scores. On LSU’s first drive of the game, the Tigers had six plays inside the five-yard line, including four snaps from the 1-yard line, and the FSU defense forced a turnover on downs with a 13-yard sack on 4th-and-1. Syracuse did not have a snap inside the 10-yard line and took only one snap inside FSU’s 15-yard line.

» The Seminoles have scored on 10 of their 12 opening drives of a half this season. In those half-opening drives, Florida State has scored seven touchdowns and three field goals for an average of 4.9 points per drive.

» Florida State made 10 tackles for loss while allowing 0 TFLs, including sacks, in its win at Boston College. It was the first time in recorded program history FSU did not allow a TFL against an FBS opponent and the first time nationally a team had 10 TFLs while allowing 0 against a P5 opponent since Missouri’s 2017 win over Florida. The only other time FSU did not allow a tackle for loss in a game was 2012 vs. FCS Murray State.

» FSU scored 31 points after halftime vs. No. 5 LSU, the most second-half points against a top-5 opponent in program history. It also was the most second-half points nationally against a top-5 opponent in a non-playoff game since September 26, 2020, when Kansas State scored 31 second-half points at No. 3 Oklahoma. That has only happened two other times since the beginning of the 2014 season, both in 2018, when Purdue scored 35 second-half points against No. 2 Ohio State and Ohio State scored 38 second-half points against No. 4 Michigan. The only other team to score at least 31 points in a game against a top-5 opponent this season is Texas’ 34-24 win over No. 3 Alabama.

FSU has a great resume. But they haven't played Duke yet.

Mike Norvell on the game with Duke Saturday....



I don't believe Riley Leonard is healed enough to go Saturday. Belin will have to get it done this week. But Duke has an opportunity again this week and Elko is a friggin defensive genius. FSU is vulnerable.

Prediction:

Duke 18
FSU 17
 
If no Leonard I feel decent about FSU winning. I think there’s a good shot that the 30+ ppg streak ends, though. That Duke D is legit, especially the line, and FSU’s offensive line has been suspect at times this year.

Offensively, FSU has been heavily reliant on 50/50 balls to the two freak receivers, Keon Coleman (6’4) and Johnny Wilson (6’7). Wilson was injured last game against Cuse, but Keon (and others) took over. We saw more diversity in the passing game because of this, and saw FSU utilize more slants and short yardage pass plays.

FSU just got their running game going, after struggling most of the season. If I understand Duke correctly, the run game may be stifled a bit on Saturday.

I expect Doak to be loud, as it’s our first night game this season at home against a P5 opponent. Add in that Duke is legitimately good and ranked, I expect a raucous crowd.

My keys to the game are Duke’s D line and secondary. Can the D line pressure Jordan Travis enough to force him into bad aerial decisions, and can the secondary bother FSU’s incredibly talented WR room enough to stop them from explosive plays?

On the other side, what can Belin do in the air? For Duke to win this has to be a low scoring game. Feels like a race to 24ish.
 
Duke 24
FSU 21

Fuck it, it’s time to finally beat the Noles for our biggest win since the Eisenhower era.
 


When was the last time Duke was mentioned as a Top 5 program in anything football?
 
Btw, after looking into the record books, I definitely think this would be our biggest win in program history.

At Wade, we beat #4 Pitt in 1938 and Navy in 1960. Our highest ranked road wins are over #9 UVA in 1952 and GT in 1959.

A historic opportunity awaits.
 
Btw, after looking into the record books, I definitely think this would be our biggest win in program history.

At Wade, we beat #4 Pitt in 1938 and Navy in 1960. Our highest ranked road wins are over #9 UVA in 1952 and GT in 1959.

A historic opportunity awaits.

A fantastic opportunity awaits. This would be and all-time win for the ages. We could be talking about this the rest of our lives type win.
 
Btw, after looking into the record books, I definitely think this would be our biggest win in program history.

At Wade, we beat #4 Pitt in 1938 and Navy in 1960. Our highest ranked road wins are over #9 UVA in 1952 and GT in 1959.

A historic opportunity awaits.
Nice finds

Every time we have a primetime game, it is a chance to change the narrative and move the needle.

FSU will want to make a statement Saturday night, the first home game in primetime against a ranked opponent to help their playoff chances. They will go for a quick knockout, staying in the game into the 4th quarter is key. If we pull it off, no one can say we were overlooked, not credibly anyway.
 


Damn. Hope he's able to play but seems unlikely. How unfortunate.
 
Please don’t put him out there unless he’s 100%. I know some of you are more optimistic than I, but don’t think this game is close even with a healthy QB1. If Leonard isn’t 100% I would prefer to preserve him for winnable games.
 


Keep him out. I'm with peef. Double digit loss with or without him and with him he can only get hurt.
 
This game is winnable with a healthy Riley but I don’t want to potentially torpedo the rest of the season by throwing him out there if he isn’t ready. We will control our destiny in the race for Charlotte regardless of the result tonight.
 
Vegas is giving him about a 20-30% chance of playing I think. Spread should be like 10.5 with Leonard healthy but is holding steady at 14.5. I assume Leonard at GTD health is worth about 7 points over Belin at 100%, similar to what we’ve seen with top QBs in the NFL.
 

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