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Player Kyle “Flip” Filipowski

Biggest drag on his numbers right now, preventing him from looking like an all-time college legend on paper, is his shot profile.

Doesn’t get to the line nearly enough for a giant who is 13/15 FT so far (87%). His 30% FT Rate is probably the single most limiting aspect of game so far. If he can somehow transform into Hansbrough drawing fouls this season, Duke is the title favorite.

He’s 13/22 at rim (59%) and 3/13 midrange (23%) and 5/17 from 3 (29%). This along with his FT Rate paints a clear picture that he’s settling way too much once he’s inside the arc instead of getting to the rim, and he might simply need to get better at selling fouls.

The midrange is obviously disappointing, appalling and dismaying to all of us here at Duke-Forum. In the past, we would assume it would never change and resign ourselves to seeing an otherwise great player waste possessions all season. With a new coach who has already instilled dramatically different philosophies, I’m hopeful Filipowski will be taught to cut the midrange out (along with Whitehead and the entire roster).

For any 7-footer with 80%+ FT shooting and reasonable 3pt shooting, taking even the most wide open midrange shot is preposterous, assuming he will never surpass Dirk/Durant’s long term accuracy from there. The fact that he’s 23% from midrange turns this into a comical issue that will be a barometer for Scheyer’s coaching ability. Turn this guy into a monster who goes 8/10 from the line every game, not some soft midrange chucker.
 
He's obviously a different player (better defender/passer, worse touch), but something about his rebounding and size and agility reminds me a bit of Bagley. He's so much more agile on the offensive end than I expected based on watching him play a few times last year.

I still see him logging 1.25 charges committed per game, but he moves through space pretty well.
 
Not even sure I’d call it midrange shots. More like these extended scoop layup attempts where he tries to bounce in the ball off the glass with his arms extended as long as possible while falling over, except he’s starting from several feet out. The kind of shot that would have a 90% chance of getting blocked against a power conference team
 
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SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Biggest drag on his numbers right now, preventing him from looking like an all-time college legend on paper, is his shot profile.

Doesn’t get to the line nearly enough for a giant who is 13/15 FT so far (87%). His 30% FT Rate is probably the single most limiting aspect of game so far. If he can somehow transform into Hansbrough drawing fouls this season, Duke is the title favorite.

He’s 13/22 at rim (59%) and 3/13 midrange (23%) and 5/17 from 3 (29%). This along with his FT Rate paints a clear picture that he’s settling way too much once he’s inside the arc instead of getting to the rim, and he might simply need to get better at selling fouls.

The midrange is obviously disappointing, appalling and dismaying to all of us here at Duke-Forum. In the past, we would assume it would never change and resign ourselves to seeing an otherwise great player waste possessions all season. With a new coach who has already instilled dramatically different philosophies, I’m hopeful Filipowski will be taught to cut the midrange out (along with Whitehead and the entire roster).

For any 7-footer with 80%+ FT shooting and reasonable 3pt shooting, taking even the most wide open midrange shot is preposterous, assuming he will never surpass Dirk/Durant’s long term accuracy from there. The fact that he’s 23% from midrange turns this into a comical issue that will be a barometer for Scheyer’s coaching ability. Turn this guy into a monster who goes 8/10 from the line every game, not some soft midrange chucker.
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The only player I want shooting midrange jumpers is Proctor. He seems to be pretty automatic when he comes off a high ball screen and gets into the middle of the lane.

I guess maybe Roach can shoot a few, given how terrible he is at finishing at the rim.
 
Filipowski’s spin move is so predictable and he doesn’t seem to come out of it with great balance. Seems he uses it and either commits a charge or is off balance and throws up something weak and goofy at the rim. But someone pointed out recently that he has a great second jump, which I hadn’t really noticed until recently. The weak, off balance tosses at the rim aren’t terrible I guess if he’s gonna bounce right back up to put it in.
 
dukebluedevils05 said:
Filipowski’s spin move is so predictable and he doesn’t seem to come out of it with great balance. Seems he uses it and either commits a charge or is off balance and throws up something weak and goofy at the rim. But someone pointed out recently that he has a great second jump, which I hadn’t really noticed until recently. The weak, off balance tosses at the rim aren’t terrible I guess if he’s gonna bounce right back up to put it in.
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My caveat would be that I think it's been very effective when he actually starts it on the block, rather than out by the elbow. Just has to learn his limits, and when to avoid getting off balance and overcommitting (same issue with the charges).

Unrelatedly, I've been wondering what his high-end NBA comp/role would be. I really don't even know. Somewhere in the Sabonis/Towns stratosphere? I'm not sure there's a great direct comp. I'm trying to imagine where his draft projection would be if he continues close to the pace he's on, though. Somewhere in the 7-12 range feels about right, based on nothing.
 
I find him more similar to Porzingis. I based that on a combination of his awkward post touch, his shooting, and his defensive mobility. Kyle is more physical and is a better passer, though. But of course, Porzingis is a purer shooter and is even taller.

 
Those were literally the first highlights I found, so they may not be the best example. I saw some from another game and was struck by the similarity. But even in these highlights you can see what I'm talking about on the first play.

I think Flip's draft upside depends entirely on his shooting. If he shoots 40%, he's top 10. If he shoots 30%, he's probably in the 20s.
 
It would be sad to me if the coaches are seeing what Paolo is doing in the NBA wrt drawing fouls compared with the suboptimal style of play they were having him take on at Duke, and they decide they should repeat the process with Filipowski the very next season.
 
Some of that is just the poor spacing inherent in CBB and some of it is roster construction. Paolo is able to get into the lane at will because even on a team that plays a bunch of bigs like the Magic there are still far more outside threats Duke has/had. Wagner, Bol, Ross, Anthony, Carter, Suggs, etc will all at least take threes. And several of them shoot it well. NBA officiating also helps.

We probably need to go with Flip at the 5 to maximize him, but I'm not sure how you do that politically with Lively on the roster. Also, it's not like Lively hasn't warranted being on the floor. Maybe the solution is just to have Lively spot up more, idk. It's become more important than ever to build your roster correctly in an era when benching elite recruits has huge recruiting repercussions. The best thing to do is build a roster that actually maximizes everyone so you don't have to worry about stuff like this.

Next year's team is much better constructed than this year's. Kyle could be the best player in CBB on that team. Proctor could also thrive. Unfortunately, they will not be on that team.
 
I think we pray for a Lively injury and then offer insincere thoughts and prayers after it inevitably happens, to his foot. Taking Ryan Young, Kale Catchings and Max Johns as transfers over, say, Terrence Shannon, didn’t help this situation either.
 
Lively has a lot of value as a passer. He got Flip on his best open look on a corner 3. I'm still hoping there's a way for those guys to fit together on the floor since it's obvious they are going to play together.
I'm more worried about the backcourt. If Roach doesn't figure out a productive role, it's hard to see this team going very far with him getting 30+ minutes every night. I saw a Duke branded tweet that said he has zero assists in his last 43 minutes.
 
I keep coming back to what happened with Caleb Love and RJ Davis. As much as the Manek stuff, taking Love off the ball was a big part of their run at the end of last season. He still kind of sucked. But having the better player run their offense meant that he wasn't as harmful.

Granted, it seemed that exactly the opposite happened with Duke. We put Roach on the ball more and he got better. But I still feel that his best role this year should be spotting up and attacking closeouts. It's less about how he's playing for me and more about the potential of Tyrese.
 
If Proctor becomes the unquestioned lead guard and Filipowski is still at 30% usage, with Mitchell emerging as a valuable 25% usage guy, the guard next to Proctor will just be a shooter and defender. I feel like Roach is not ideal for that role. Is it crazy to strongly prefer Blakes over Roach in that scenario?
 
Forgot Whitehead too.

Proctor 20% usage
guard (Blakes or Roach) 10%
Whitehead 25%
Mitchell 20%
Filipowski 25%

Proctor 20%
Whitehead 25%
Mitchell 20%
Filipowski 25%
Lively 10%

I think these will end up being the best lineups, with Grandison providing a lot of backup minutes and other guys sliding up and down appropriately.

Does the junior captain and savior of K’s final season become completely irrelevant?
 
rhfarmer said:
It's not crazy. Blakes has more upside as a defender also.
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It's not just upside. He's a better defender, period. Also probably a better shooter.

I guess we have to root for a Roach injury as well as a Lively injury to maximize this roster. Of course, that would gut our depth. Too bad there's not a type of injury that only allows you to play 15 minutes off the bench.
 
I disagree that the second guard needs to be only a defender and shooter though. Having someone who can attack close outs and run some secondary actions is worthwhile. I guess Whitehead can do that, but I'd argue that more of those guys is better.
 
Lively is a great 5 man to pair up with Filipowski. He checks all of the boxes out of a modern big that you would like to see ( besides shooting). He's good defensively (this will improve with more minutes), he protects the rim, he gets easy points in transition and on the offensive glass, he can switch onto guards and be competent, and he's very good in the P&R game. He offers a ton of vertical spacing and passes well out of the short p&r. Long-term Lively has the potential to be much more effective in p&r than Mark Williams because Lively is more skilled with ball handling, passing, and vision. Out of the p&r Lively will likely either just dunk it/finish an easy layup or find an open teammate. Both are great options.

Duke's best long-term approach to reaching its ceiling is with Lively-Filipowski paired up and starting in the front court, and with Proctor becoming the highest usage guard on the team, with Roach & Whitehead serving as scorers off the ball.
 
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