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Player Mackenzie Mgbako

Last thing I'll say is that when I look at guys who have succeeded in the NBA over the last 3-4 years, I see a bunch of players who were insanely efficient/dominant at the college or international levels. I think the trap NBA scouts fall into is overvaluing high school scouting. High school scouting is the reason guys like Reddish get drafted in the lottery and guys like Baldwin and Bates still get drafted at all.

Because high school stats are hard to come by, high school scouting tends to ignore actual production. Once players get to college or international play, stats become widely available. If NBA scouts threw out all priors and just watched players at the college/international levels, I think they'd make fewer mistakes.

When we look at guys like Haliburton, Shai, Vassell, Bane, JJJ, Holmgren, etc. we see players whose shooting indicators and efficiency stats were off the charts. You didn't have to see Haliburton's "feel" to believe in him. You literally just had to look at his size combined with his shooting and efficiency indicators at the college level.
 
rome8180 said:
Weren't Baldwin's high school shooting numbers actually good though? It's tough to find much, but I did find an article which said he shot 43% in his junior year. Couldn't find anything from his senior season.

I think with him and Bates there was reason to think that their skills would translate. Bates had some huge scoring games on the national stage against elite competition. I really don't think the Mgbako comparison is apt. I think the lesson with Bates is more about deciding someone is the next Durant too early. Some players peak as sophomores in high school. Some peak much later.
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I wasn't trying to harp on the percentage as much as the fact that these guys had little else to their game other than catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble pull-ups. Like, hardly any "feel" at all. Not reading the defense, just being often better (and/or taller) than whatever single high-school defender is on them.

I think Mgbako belongs with Bates precisely because of the "peak as a sophomore" reason. His game didn't really evolve from then on.
 



We would be dealing with this all season. Awful. I can see so clearly the evolution of my own posts here. Start with justifying horrible stats with the very few peripheral stats that point to possible improvement and high ceiling. End with obvious stats that show he’s the worst freshman in Duke history.
 
Johnson and/or his dad may have had some narcissism/selfishness issues, but I think his 11/6/2 in 21 mpg on 50+% shooting compares favorably with some some of these other guys. Also, I might add, with Joey Beard.
 
Unfortunately, I looked at his stats and will do exactly what I said I would do. His only major problem so far, in a very small sample, is his 3pt shooting. He’s 1/13 (7.7%).

Everything else does actually look encouraging or at least not irredeemable. 58% from 2, a perfect 8/8 from the line. Shot chart is “good” in a vacuum, with 52% 3pt rate and 32% FT rate - it doesn’t seem like he’s a midrange-dominant chucker. You could argue that any 58% 2pt / 8% 3pt / 100% ft guy who takes so many 3s is an idiot. Assists and turnovers are not good but fine. Rebounding is a weakness for a supposed great athlete at 6-8.

I think if his 3pt shot comes around, it pretty much fixes his all-encompassing stats; his 91 ORtg would jump to something like 117 had he gone 4-13 from 3 instead of 1-13. Of course, I’m pretty sure I’ve made a nearly identical statement about the likes of Trevor Keels and Trevon Duval. The lesson to be learned: when someone shoots a terrible percentage, they very often are not a good shooter.

The conclusion remains he would probably be unplayable for Duke this season, or he would be played a lot and cost Duke any chance at a title.
 
childress22 said:
Johnson and/or his dad may have had some narcissism/selfishness issues, but I think his 11/6/2 in 21 mpg on 50+% shooting compares favorably with some some of these other guys. Also, I might add, with Joey Beard.
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Yeah, Jalen actually played pretty well. He even shot 44% from three. He just didn't fit with Hurt defensively, and Hurt was too good not to play. And of course, Jalen quit on the team. If you want to say that makes him the worst recruit, I understand that, since we only got 13 games out of him and at least Duval played the full season. But in terms of actual production, Jalen was fine.
 
Yeah, Jalen, purely as a basketball talent, doesn't deserve to be mentioned with those names. He could defend, rebound, and create for others while exhibiting a motor in a big, strong, athletic NBA frame. He was essentially an alternative reality version of Banchero who grew up without any of the shot-making development and alpha mental toughness ingrained in him.


Nonetheless, a mentally handicapped, nerfed Banchero is still an impact freshman, and unlike the aforementioned names, he was worthy of being drafted in the first round because of his positional size, elite athletic traits and ability to impact the game on both ends.
 
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Pantone287 said:
I feel like the next wave is going to be "feel" guys, now that everyone is ashamed of underrating the Haliburtons and Shais of recent years. Proctor will be an interesting litmus test for that next year. HS scouting eval trends always lag NBA ones by a few years, though.
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I've been thinking about this in the context of the NBA I've been watching. I think the most significant trend in the NBA right now is "bigs you can use as an offensive hub." So many of the successful teams have a big who runs a ton of handoffs up top or who catches in the high post and looks to hit cutters. The obvious examples are Jokic, Sabonis, and Sengun. But I'm seeing it even with role player bigs like Goga Bitadze.

I'm sure it exists with non-Eastern European bigs. Those just were the first examples that popped into my head. Embiid is now operating this way too, for example.
 
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The other trend I'm seeing is size being prioritized, even at the expense of shooting. From 2013 or so on, it seemed like the trend was to get as much shooting on the floor as possible. While that's still important, you're seeing teams not necessarily care as much if their frontcourt can space. They've gotten more creative at artificially creating space. They're running more complex actions with multiple screens. And of course, having one of your center operate as an offensive hub helps create space by keeping them away from the basket.

So teams like Minnesota, Orlando, New York, Denver, Cleveland, etc. are all running two bigs at once with only one of them being a real floor spacer. This trend doesn't seem to be negatively impacting offense. A middle-of-the-pack offensive team now would have been at the top of the league five years ago. Offensive rebounding is starting to be prioritized again a bit too, so that's part of it. A guy like MPJ wouldn't have played the three in 2017. Either he or Gordon would have come off the bench so the other one could play the four. KCP would have been at the three.

Anyway, between these two trends, the big man is back. Just not the one dimensional post-up big (poor Okafor).
 
rome8180 said:
The other trend I'm seeing is size being prioritized, even at the expense of shooting. From 2013 or so on, it seemed like the trend was to get as much shooting on the floor as possible. While that's still important, you're seeing teams not necessarily care as much if their frontcourt can space. They've gotten more creative at artificially creating space. They're running more complex actions with multiple screens. And of course, having one of your center operate as an offensive hub helps create space by keeping them away from the basket.

So teams like Minnesota, Orlando, New York, Denver, Cleveland, etc. are all running two bigs at once with only one of them being a real floor spacer. This trend doesn't seem to be negatively impacting offense. A middle-of-the-pack offensive team now would have been at the top of the league five years ago. Offensive rebounding is starting to be prioritized again a bit too, so that's part of it. A guy like MPJ wouldn't have played the three in 2017. Either he or Gordon would have come off the bench so the other one could play the four. KCP would have been at the three.

Anyway, between these two trends, the big man is back. Just not the one dimensional post-up big (poor Okafor).
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For the record, this is not me saying I think Duke should run two bigs. Obviously, we already kind of are, given that Mitchell can't hit threes anymore. But five-out in college is still as impactful as it once was in the NBA. For one thing, college teams are not as good at guarding it. For another, fewer college teams can actually do it. Lastly, the number of mobile bigs is lower in college. So if you do run two bigs, you often end up with two stiffs who aren't stretching the floor and can't guard in space.

Essentially, the marginal advantage gained by going five-out is just way higher in college than it is in the NBA right now. College is often at least a decade behind the NBA strategically. Maybe even more. Only Alabama and some mid-majors take threes at the volume NBA teams do, for example.

Duke should run five-out. But unfortunately, we don't have the personnel for it since Mitchell can't shoot and Power can't defend.
 
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