Player Marvin Bagley III

[rome8180]

We don't need an almighty presence there. What we need is someone who can get out of the lane to open up driving lanes for our PG who can't shoot.

 

[rome8180]

I don't think he tips the scales nearly that much. He doesn't solve a single one of our glaring problems.

I believe this to be true, unless Bagley is a transformative defender (one that corrects an entire team's mistakes). Devils could have better used shooting + guard depth.

If I thought this team would have dominant defense and rebounding, I would say the two-big model could work. In that case, Bagley is a better option. But I don't think that model is going to work anyway.

Of course, we can point to 2010 as a time when it did work, but there are a lot of ways this team doesn't resemble the 2010 team.

 

[rome8180]

The solution is of course a Duke futures bet that involves projecting win/loss record.

I am in.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

No player is going to be worth more than about 3 wins above replacement players unless the replacement minutes need to go to walk-ons and the player is an NBA starter-quality player while playing in college.

Okafor was one of the most valuable players Duke has had recently in win shares per 40. Matt Jones on that same 2015 team was the worst non-walk-on in win shares per 40. If you gave all of Okafor's minutes that season to players of the same box score value as sophomore Jones, it mathematically comes out to 3.1 fewer wins. This is not even accounting for the fact that those minutes would have actually gone to better, more suitable players like Amile and Marshall, who each had much higher win shares per 40 than Jones that season. This is just to give everyone an idea of what the biggest possible value in a player would look like - going from NPOY candidate and top 3 draft pick Jahlil Okafor to sophomore Matt Jones over just about the maximum number of games in a college season. This is worth about 3 wins.

As much as I want to believe Bolden is the worst person to ever enroll at Duke, Bagley as a one-year-younger-than-expected freshman is not going to be worth more than 3 wins over a sophomore Bolden getting those minutes instead, assuming Bolden is not literally the worst scholarship player ever at Duke.

 

[sjsj2448]

Sean May just smashed my argument into a million pieces. I was dubious at first but it makes sense when looking at the historical record. I thought Georgia Tech was much better with Chris Bosh, for instance.

I still welcome Bagley and the 3 extra wins with open arms.

 

[Si6hts]

ALL I wanted to say is, I don't think getting Bagley to Duke hurts in anyway. If anything it helps.

 

[Slap the Floor]

We don't need an almighty presence there. What we need is someone who can get out of the lane to open up driving lanes for our PG who can't shoot.

I think Carter and Bagley can both space the floor enough to allow Duval to do that- plus, if we play the right way, Duval, Bagley will be flying in the open court with Trent Jr and Allen spotting up on the wings.

 

[rhfarmer]

"If we play the right way" is probably the unintentional comedy winner on this whole thread.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

There's always the chance Bagley is more Davis/Towns than Okafor, not talking in terms of play style and skill set, but just in terms of overall quality. This would make him the kind of player who would take Duke from about 10% to win the title to about 20%.

Not surprisingly, I'm with most of the old timers on this board in believing Bagley is not a lock to make the same kind of impact as Davis or Towns. It could happen, as the recruiting hype is even greater for Bagley than it was for those guys, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect everyone on that level to actually be extraordinary as a freshman. Tatum was #1 on a lot of boards coming out of HS and, while he was great for Duke, he wasn't close to that level even at his peak.

I generally try to avoid expecting legendary greatness out of any given player or team. It would end up being wrong almost every time. Chances are Bagley will "only" be as good as Jabari or Wiggins - really great, really flawed freshmen who fail to fix all the fatal holes the team has.

Something much more important than Bagley being at Duke, in my mind, is whether Duval is an overall good player next season.

 

[rome8180]

We don't need an almighty presence there. What we need is someone who can get out of the lane to open up driving lanes for our PG who can't shoot.

I think Carter and Bagley can both space the floor enough to allow Duval to do that- plus, if we play the right way, Duval, Bagley will be flying in the open court with Trent Jr and Allen spotting up on the wings.

If you're saying we need to play at a fast pace, I agree. Just not convinced we'll do that, since we haven't for the past six seasons.

 

[rome8180]

ALL I wanted to say is, I don't think getting Bagley to Duke hurts in anyway. If anything it helps.

I agree that it helps this year. I'm just not sure that it helps enough to be worth the tradeoff in Javin and Vrank's development. I don't believe we win the title even with Bagley. And I believe Javin and Vrank will mean much more to the program in the long run. Also, if Javin transfers as a result, then we've lost two years of a guy who will likely be a very solid upperclassman.

The obvious solution is for us to land Bagley AND have K play his depth, but we all know that won't happen.

 

[torontoduke]

^That is the downside of Duke hoops being in 'win now' mode for the last 5 years. Less focus on 3 or 4 year player development (Quinn, Amile & Grayson as notable exceptions); more focus on the cream of the one-and-done crop.

It is an argument where I see benefits of both approaches to recruiting; it is tough to expect some of the multi-year guys to wait their turn.

 

[Slap the Floor]

We don't need an almighty presence there. What we need is someone who can get out of the lane to open up driving lanes for our PG who can't shoot.

I think Carter and Bagley can both space the floor enough to allow Duval to do that- plus, if we play the right way, Duval, Bagley will be flying in the open court with Trent Jr and Allen spotting up on the wings.

If you're saying we need to play at a fast pace, I agree. Just not convinced we'll do that, since we haven't for the past six seasons.

I think we will. I don't think K is foolish enough to not play fast with Duval. I mean, if we add Bagley to go with Duval, it would be incredibly stupid to not be an aggressive defense team always looking to push. Bagley + Carter would dominate the boards and both are capable of getting up the floor quickly. Duval should be allowed to push the pace the way Kyrie was in 2011. I don't really care if he goes through growing pains early, but it needs to be done. I think with Carter as an inside scoring presence, Allen being an elite perimeter scorer and Trent Jr adding another shooting presence that we'll be more than competent in the HC anyway if we're forced into it.

Please play fast.

 

[niveklaen]

^ that is so true. I really wish we had run more of our offense through 4yr guys like Matt, TT, Josh, and Marshall. K kept insisting on focusing on guys like Jabar, Ingram, and Tatum. What was he thinking?

 

[Slap the Floor]

ALL I wanted to say is, I don't think getting Bagley to Duke hurts in anyway. If anything it helps.

I agree that it helps this year. I'm just not sure that it helps enough to be worth the tradeoff in Javin and Vrank's development. I don't believe we win the title even with Bagley. And I believe Javin and Vrank will mean much more to the program in the long run. Also, if Javin transfers as a result, then we've lost two years of a guy who will likely be a very solid upperclassman.

The obvious solution is for us to land Bagley AND have K play his depth, but we all know that won't happen.

It is extremely frustrating that it won't happen. Assuming we play fast, which the Duke social media has alluded to, we are going to need to use our bench a little bit more. DeLaurier should be a very ideal big man off of the bench. Can run the floor, athletic, can rebound, defend, throw down impressive lobs passed from half-court, etc. DeLaurier should be able to get enough minutes next season where he thinks "I'm contributing to the team, my hard work is being rewarded with minutes. I'm not starting or playing 20mpg, but, I can see that if I keep working my tail off I'll really be a big factor minutes wise as a junior and senior". Most coaches are capable of doing this, I don't understand why Coach K is not. I refuse to believe DeLaurier can't get 10-15mpg on next season's roster, in ACC play.

I don't care about Bolden since it seems he's either going to declare for the NBA or transfer. But DeLaurier should be a very important cog in the wheel in 2018-19.

 

[Slap the Floor]

^ that is so true. I really wish we had run more of our offense through 4yr guys like Matt, TT, Josh, and Marshall. K kept insisting on focusing on guys like Jabar, Ingram, and Tatum. What was he thinking?

I don't think Toronto was referring to how we incorporate players into the offense, and I don't think he was referring to the players you mentioned either. I think what he meant was that Coach K has been unable to find a balance between featuring one and done players and also developing 3-4 year players. Matt Jones, TT, Amile, etc all got minutes as freshman and sophomores, and were thus getting enough minutes to be considered as "developing". I think Toronto was speaking more about Semi Ojeleye, Gbinjie (butchered?)Chase Jeter, etc. Players that were talented recruits, and had Coach K made an effort to develop them as underclassmen, could have been very valuable players for us as they matured into juniors and seniors. Ojeleye was just a second round draft pick and had a monster senior season at SMU, and Gbinjie had a successful career at Syracuse and played well against ACC opponents. I find it hard to believe that both players were just so shit at Duke that Coach K couldn't try to develop them with 7-10mpg in ACC play.

 

[skins]

^ that is so true. I really wish we had run more of our offense through 4yr guys like Matt, TT, Josh, and Marshall. K kept insisting on focusing on guys like Jabar, Ingram, and Tatum. What was he thinking?

Why did you choose Matt Jones and Tyler Thornton to make your point and not Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Quinn Cook, Lance Thomas, or Amile Jefferson? Even with OADs there is still a space in college basketball to develop reliable upperclassman.

 

[torontoduke]

Yeah - I was not saying do not pursue/secure the elite talent, but rather that recruiting above players sometimes hinders the retention of multi-year guys that would/could otherwise fill important roles later on. It was not a shot at the coaching strategy other than maybe they could find a balance between one-and-dones and multi-year players.

 

[skins]

ALL I wanted to say is, I don't think getting Bagley to Duke hurts in anyway. If anything it helps.

I agree that it helps this year. I'm just not sure that it helps enough to be worth the tradeoff in Javin and Vrank's development. I don't believe we win the title even with Bagley. And I believe Javin and Vrank will mean much more to the program in the long run. Also, if Javin transfers as a result, then we've lost two years of a guy who will likely be a very solid upperclassman.

The obvious solution is for us to land Bagley AND have K play his depth, but we all know that won't happen.

I agree with you, but if we're going to have this conversation I'm glad it's over Bagley and not someone like Kevin Knox.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]