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Pomeroy

In striking range of elite now. Would be 3-point underdogs to UConn in a tournament setting today. As someone who has no idea what Houston looks like on the court or who their players are, I am confidently not concerned about Houston. A matchup against Purdue would come down to how many wide open 3s Mitchell can make out of the 30 he takes that game. If Mitchell goes 12/30 3pt with Edey sagging off of him, Duke wins. Would be cool to see Mitchell set the NCAA record for 3s in a Tournament game, too.
 
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I've looked into this not at all, but the idea itself is interesting. Seems like a logical direction for stats nerding to go in - not just improving absolute ratings, but figuring out more nuanced ways to predict specific matchups.

I guess the main question would how actually predictive something like this is vs noise that corrects over time. I would assume at least somewhat though.

 
Without knowing the exact details, this is the kind of thing that I can actually tolerate being called "predictive analytics."
 
Could also mean Duke isn’t good in transition offense relative to the norm, as slower paced opponents generally means they’re not turning the ball over as much. Duke might just be relatively bad in transition/non-half-court overall, which bodes well for high leverage situations and single-elimination tournaments, where coaches presumably tighten up and shorten the leashes. Would also mean UVA is an appealing matchup for Duke.
 
That would mesh with Ryan Hammer's Trapezoid of Excellence theory, which is supposedly very predictive and accounts for the difficulties faced by the high and low pace teams against contrasting styles in a tournament setting:



 
Yeah I had heard this a few years ago as an explanation on why Gonzaga, who typically runs at fast pace, has had some tournament struggles. Interesting as it relates to Alabama, who has also flamed out under Oats in the last few years despite being a high seed, as well as Arizona’s very poor performance in the tourney in the first few years under Lloyd, a Few disciple.
 
Gonzaga in the tournament has been weird. Incredible at making the second weekend, but they have an atrocious record (something like 2-13) against top 3 seeds and obviously were never able to get over the finish line for a title.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
Yeah I had heard this a few years ago as an explanation on why Gonzaga, who typically runs at fast pace, has had some tournament struggles. Interesting as it relates to Alabama, who has also flamed out under Oats in the last few years despite being a high seed, as well as Arizona’s very poor performance in the tourney in the first few years under Lloyd, a Few disciple.
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And yet UNC hasn't underachieved that often relative to seeding.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
Under Roy, no, they hadn't. I don't think their pace has been quite as breakneck under Davis. I think their emphasis on offensive rebounding under Roy had helped them achieve a kind of floor (mainly in connection with shot attempt advantages) over the non-Power 6 teams and it made them a bit less upset prone.
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Agree. That's why the year I was least nervous about a 1st or 2nd round upset for Duke was 2018. We were 2nd in the entire country in offensive rebounding according to https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-rebounding-pct?date=2018-04-03. I also thought that our emphasis on scoring around the rim would mean less variability in overall offensive performance.

And no, the tempo hasn't been as breakneck under Hubert Davis. But it's still not slow. #39 in adjusted tempo in 2022 and #37 this year. It's also too early to say whether his teams are vulnerable to upset. So far, he's overachieved one season and missed the tournament the next year.
 
Yeah, Roy never had a truly shocking first round upset loss, unlike pretty much every other coach who repeatedly achieved top 4 seeds over the last 25 years. Earlier on, UNC did of course have the Weber State game under Guthridge.
 
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I won't get into Dean Smith's track record. His teams played fast and ran basically the same offense as Roy's, but there's so little data from that era it's impossible to draw conclusions. Plus, basketball itself has changed so much. K's teams used to play fast and had great success. But again, completely different era. Overplay defense also worked back then.
 
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