ACC Tournament 2014

[DrKlahn]

Bracket with the seeds modified to reflect Pomeroy ranking within the conference. It tends to show that UVA got a bit of a raw deal as the 1-seed. Not only are MD and FSU pretty clearly better than Clemson and State, but UVA has to play one of them--no chance at an upset by a double digit seed. Haven't seen Pomeroy's log 5 prediction yet, but wouldn't be surprised if it's Duke.

UNC's draw is pretty comfy I think. A day game quarterfinal against Pitt, with Duke and State fans probably staying away for the most part, is very favorable.

For Duke, it's pretty sweet too. Perhaps this time around they will have heard of Blossomgame and NNNnnoko and have developed a game plan to stop them. But who knows, that's what makes these guys so loveable.

 

[childress22]

Cool idea for a post -- thanks. Hopefully, Duke can capitalize on the chance to play Clemson and potentially Syracuse -- given that they have to avenge a loss against the former, and probably still want to shake off any asterisks on their one win over the latter.

 

[physicsfactor]

Duke is 40% likely to win the ACCT according to a site called teamrankings. Twice as likely as UVA.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conference-tournaments/acc-bracket/

 

[physicsfactor]

Hopefully, Duke can capitalize on the chance to play Clemson and potentially Syracuse

No way, man. Hopefully Duke gets easiest draw possible.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I'm pulling for BC since they have no chance against Duke. Imagine being one of the dozen or so BC basketball fans, rooting so hard for Syracuse to fall to the 3 spot in the final week of the regular season. They must think of Duke like we think of Maryland.

 

[physicsfactor]

Very quick blurb about trends for betting:

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/...tting-lines-vegas-acc-big-ten-sec-pac-12-east

Only things noteworthy to Duke fans:

-- North Carolina coach Roy Williams has repeatedly said he’s not interested in the conference tournament, once describing the ACC tournament as a “cocktail party.” His disinterest shows in his team’s record against the spread in the conference tournament. Under Williams, the Tar Heels are 5-16-1 ATS in the ACC Tournament.

-- Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski isn’t much better. The Blue Devils are 3-12 ATS in the last seven ACC tournaments.

Yikes.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

NCAA BK - 2014 ACC TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 16, 2014 13:00 PM ET

Duke+150
Virginia+400
Syracuse+450
z Field (Any Other Team)+500
North Carolina+700
Pittsburgh+1000
NC State+4000
Maryland+4000
Florida St+4000
Clemson+4000

UNC being worse than teams 10-15 is cool. Kenpom will likely have percentages in line with these odds.

I would take UVA at 4-1 if I had to take any of those. If you assume the first win (this is a bad assumption, but you can go with it mentally as a gambler), then they have UNC and Duke at worst after that. They would be favored over UNC even in Greensboro and then either very slight favorites or very slight underdogs to Duke. That's something like 3-1 at worst to win the semi and championship games. If UVA gets through their first game, you're in the money.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

NCAA BK - 2014 BIG 10 TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 16, 2014 13:00 PM ET
Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Michigan St+350
Michigan+350
Wisconsin+400
Iowa+450
Ohio St+450
Nebraska+1500
Minnesota+2000
Indiana+2500
Illinois+2500
Penn St+3000
Purdue+6000
Northwestern+10000

NCAA BK - BIG 12 TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 15, 2014 13:00 PM ET
Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Kansas+200
Iowa St+400
Oklahoma St+400
Baylor+500
Oklahoma+600
Texas+800
West Virginia+1800
Kansas St+2500
Texas Tech+7500
TCU+200000

NCAA BK - PAC 12 TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 15, 2014 13:00 PM ET
MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV

Arizona-120
UCLA+450
Oregon+700
Arizona St+1000
Stanford+1000
California+1200
Utah+1500
Colorado+1500
Washington+4000
Oregon St+7500
Washington St+20000
USC+20000

NCAA BK - SEC TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 16, 2014 13:00 PM ET
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA

Florida-130
Kentucky+400
Tennessee+500
z Field (Any Other Team)+1200
Arkansas+1500
Georgia+2000
Missouri+2500
Ole Miss+2500
LSU+3000
Alabama+4000
Texas A&M+10000

NCAA BK - 2014 AAC TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 15, 2014 13:00 PM ET
Memphis home court, Memphis, TN

Louisville-140
Cincinnati+400
SMU+400
Memphis+450
U Conn+1200
z Field (Any Other Team)+2500
Houston+6000

NCAA BK - 2014 BIG EAST TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 15, 2014 13:00 PM ET
St. John's home court, New York, NY

Villanova+150
Creighton+175
St Johns+600
z Field (Any Other Team)+800
Xavier+1000
Marquette+1200
Providence+1200

NCAA BK - MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 15, 2014 13:00 PM ET
UNLV home court, Las Vegas, NV

San Diego St+200
New Mexico+200
UNLV+300
z Field (Any Other Team)+600
Boise St+700
Nevada+1500
Wyoming+6000

NCAA BK - 2014 ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT - ODDS TO WIN (MENS) - MAR 16, 2014 13:00 PM ET
Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

VCU+175
St Louis+250
z Field (Any Other Team)+500
ST Joes+800
George Washington+800
U Mass+800
Dayton+800

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Hopefully, Duke can capitalize on the chance to play Clemson and potentially Syracuse

No way, man. Hopefully Duke gets easiest draw possible.

I would prefer the easiest draw possible (no Syracuse or UVA) if I could be assured that winning the ACCT (even if UVA loses in the semis) would place Duke ahead of both UVA and Syracuse in the national seeding pecking order. But not sure that's the case.

In any event, I think SMTTEM is correct that the seeding committee has no idea (or doesn't care) what would be "best" from a Duke perspective, and that their "reward" might be the South, with Florida.

 

[physicsfactor]

Hopefully, Duke can capitalize on the chance to play Clemson and potentially Syracuse

No way, man. Hopefully Duke gets easiest draw possible.

I would prefer the easiest draw possible (no Syracuse or UVA) if I could be assured that winning the ACCT (even if UVA loses in the semis) would place Duke ahead of both UVA and Syracuse in the national seeding pecking order. But not sure that's the case.

I don't see any way in which that is NOT the case. Duke is already ahead of both teams in the RPI. Guys like Lunardi already have Duke ahead of both teams on the S-Curve (he has Duke as the 2 in the East, Syracuse and UVA both on his 3-line). Duke would end up ranked ahead of both teams in the final polls. And Duke would have a conference championship to its name that Syracuse wouldn't have.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Well, Lunardi has Duke on the high end of the projections I've seen.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Duke is slightly below UVA and Syracuse in the matrix, but using this, the mean delta for both Syracuse/Duke and UVA/Duke is low enough that I'd feel pretty good that Duke getting further than both would vault them over both.

 

[ZackM]

Why do so many people still have Kansas as a 1? This is weird.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Kansas got screwed in their tournament. The 2nd and 3rd most likely teams to win the Big 12 are Kansas' potential 1st and 2nd opponents (Oklahoma State in 1st game, Iowa State in 2nd game). The fact that Oklahoma State and Iowa State have such good chances to win the tournament says a lot about what people think of Kansas without Embiid. If Kansas gets through that, gotta give them credit. Not a 1 seed, though.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Why do so many people still have Kansas as a 1? This is weird.

Well, it's only 15 percent of the predictors on Bracket Matrix, but yes, it's a sizable amount. Forgetting the whole Embiid situation for a moment, I think they are essentially a lock for the 2 in the Midwest, without much potential for upward or downward movement.

I agree with the person (Durhamson?) who said that optically, it's going to be tough for the committee to give an 8 loss team a one-seed. And Embiid potentially missing tournament games or not being at 100% makes it even harder to give them a 1.

That said, they have played a ridiculous 19 games against the RPI top 50, and have 12 wins. They are also 6-3 against the RPI top 25. Duke, by contrast, has played 10 games against the RPI top 50 and won 6, and are 5-4 against the RPI top 25. If the Committee gives a shit at all about RPI, Kansas is going to be a lock for a 2 seed on that basis alone.

Embiid being out or seriously hurt is probably the only thing that can cause real movement in their seed at this point. I'd say their conference tournament is probably the least meaningful of any team for seeding purposes other than Florida and Arizona.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

He's right.

 

[DrKlahn]

Love that guy.

 

[DrKlahn]

Up first, two teams that were a combined 2-1 against Duke this year.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Cavanagh and Connaughton are probably having a good laugh on every dead ball about how they both dominated Duke's blackletes.

 

[DrKlahn]

I guess we are rooting for the January post-family tragedy loss to be the embarrassing one, not the loss from last week, right?