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Wednesday, December 20, 7pm ET, ESPN
Madison Square Garden
Kenpom: 7 overall, 2 offense, 43 defense
This should be the first time Duke are underdogs this season. Baylor's offense is elite in several important ways: they're #1 in the country in 3PT%; they're also good on 2s and FTs; they're one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country; and they're great at getting to the line.
The five Baylor players who get the most playing time shoot 48%, 47%, 46%, 41% and 39% from 3. While some regression is expected from those unsustainable levels, their FT percentages suggests this isn't too fluky - those guys shoot 87%, 87%, 82%, 88% and 82% from the line, respectively. Overcommitting to running them off the arc isn't going to work, given they shoot 70% at the rim as a team and are adept at drawing fouls when the defense breaks down.
RayJ Dennis, a 5th year transfer from Toledo and Boise State, is the engine at PG. He looks to pass much more than shoot, and while his 38% assist rate is spectacular, the biggest problem for Baylor has been his 26% turnover rate. Unfortunately for Duke, the turnovers appear to be at least somewhat fluky, as his TO rate last season was only 12%. When Dennis gets this under control (likely starting with the Duke game), their offense essentially becomes unstoppable.
7-0 freshman Yves Missi and 6-10 sophomore Josh Ojianwuna split time at center. Missi was the #37 overall recruit on 247 composite and is your classic high efficiency garbage man with great rebounding, shot blocking, finishing at the rim and a ridiculous FT rate, but no range and terrible FT shooting. Ojianwuna was a 3-star recruit and is a solid replica of Missi but worse in almost every way. Both of them have foul issues; Missi commits almost 5 fouls per 40 minutes and Ojianwuna commits over 7 per 40. It’s not clear that pounding them inside with Filipowski and Mitchell would be a positive for Duke, though. Baylor being forced to play 5 out on offense doesn’t feel like a win.
This will be Duke’s final chance to notch a decent non-conference win, assuming Michigan State continues to look like garbage. Ironically, MSU is Baylor’s next opponent before Baylor takes on Duke. An MSU win could cast this game in a very different light.
