Game Thread [2023-24] NC State (ACC Quarterfinals)

[bdotling]

Anyway strong recruiting and just out talenting solves a lot. Maybe we just live with ~25 win seasons against subpar talent because our league is dying anyway.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

As for next season, I think the Tournament result has to be the barometer even if we all know it's dumb to think that way. If you know something is dumb, but everyone adheres to that dumb thing, it's still the thing that matters. Ryan Day has lost to only one Big Ten opponent in five seasons, and a substantial portion of the boosters and fanbase want him fired. Individual chaotic results in single elimination formats define coaching ability in the American discourse that Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith dominate.

UConn is around 50% fair value to make the Final Four this season. I would say Scheyer piloting Duke to 50% or higher to make the Final Four would be the hope for a team with a solid #1 overall pick, another projected top 5 pick, and 1-3 more projected 1st round picks. Then you just have to win that coin flip to be considered a good coach. If you keep winning coin flips over and over, like Mahomes, Calhoun and the Golden Knights, you're known as great. If you keep losing them, like the Bills, Tatum and the Maple Leafs, you're the worst of all time.

 

[DrKlahn]

You know the whole bit about how freakishly talented players make bad coaches? I do wonder a little if Jon is the basketball IQ version of that. He was really savvy and tuned in all the time, but most guys aren’t like that, and this is definitely not a street smart team.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Late response but there are many things Scheyer hasn’t coached well. I think a particular weakness of his are inbound plays and end of half/end of game situations. At the end of game today we looked clueless as what to do on offense. These weaknesses to me in discrete situations infers that he’s not strong tactically.

I also think Jon is slow to adjust to certain game plans like Zona sagging off Mitchell. Two other teams copied that exact formula in the games after and there was no counter to it. State did it again today and we got lucky Mitchell hit a couple 3s because otherwise it was quite effective. Maybe because it’s sticking with his guys to show that he trusts them? I don’t really know.

Last, I’m also starting to get concerned with player development. Obviously there have been some good successes in season like Lively last year but now I don’t know if that is frankly him just getting back from injury given how well he’s doing in the league. Our sophomores have been thoroughly disappointing. Not a single one is demonstrably better and/or more consistent than last year.

Obviously Scheyer has done well in other parts such as our over all defensive improvements but the three things I mention above are not small issues to be solved.

Fair post. The points in the first two paragraphs are very reasonable. I’ll have to chew on them a bit.

I think the questions around player development will be answered when Dereck Lively and potentially Jared McCain wind up being the only meaningful NBA contributors from Jon’s first two teams.

 

[bdotling]

Late response but there are many things Scheyer hasn’t coached well. I think a particular weakness of his are inbound plays and end of half/end of game situations. At the end of game today we looked clueless as what to do on offense. These weaknesses to me in discrete situations infers that he’s not strong tactically.

I also think Jon is slow to adjust to certain game plans like Zona sagging off Mitchell. Two other teams copied that exact formula in the games after and there was no counter to it. State did it again today and we got lucky Mitchell hit a couple 3s because otherwise it was quite effective. Maybe because it’s sticking with his guys to show that he trusts them? I don’t really know.

Last, I’m also starting to get concerned with player development. Obviously there have been some good successes in season like Lively last year but now I don’t know if that is frankly him just getting back from injury given how well he’s doing in the league. Our sophomores have been thoroughly disappointing. Not a single one is demonstrably better and/or more consistent than last year.

Obviously Scheyer has done well in other parts such as our over all defensive improvements but the three things I mention above are not small issues to be solved.

Fair post. The points in the first two paragraphs are very reasonable. I’ll have to chew on them a bit.

I think the questions around player development will be answered when Dereck Lively and potentially Jared McCain wind up being the only meaningful NBA contributors from Jon’s first two teams.

Yeah player development is hard to measure and that’s why I caveat it with starting to get concerned. Obviously it’s a two way street BUT seeing none of Mark Mitchell, Proctor or Flip meaningfully improve and regress in some areas has me a little worried. It’s not like a one off person but basically an entire class.

Anyway where I give him grace is he has had the unfortunate luck of multiple injuries to many different players. Again hard to measure but it just raises a flag in my head that makes me worried.

 

[LastHearth]

I think it's unfair to say Flip hasn't improved. He clearly has. Proctor, I don't know, I think he just has a lower ceiling than people thought. Mitchell I don't know, I think when he's playing his best he's better than his best was last year, but he seems to be a bit of a head case, and just has games where he is borderline unplayable.

 

[childress22]

I don't think Proctor has hit his ceiling. Like a number of other guards we've had, he seems like he's not there yet as a sophomore. Mostly physical strength-wise and mindset-wise, but shot-repetition is probably a part of it too.

 

[LastHearth]

I'm not saying he has hit his ceiling, I just think his ceiling is not nearly as high as people thought, so the development curve is going to be a lot flatter than people expect.

 

[Pantone287]

Late response but there are many things Scheyer hasn’t coached well. I think a particular weakness of his are inbound plays and end of half/end of game situations. At the end of game today we looked clueless as what to do on offense. These weaknesses to me in discrete situations infers that he’s not strong tactically.

I also think Jon is slow to adjust to certain game plans like Zona sagging off Mitchell. Two other teams copied that exact formula in the games after and there was no counter to it. State did it again today and we got lucky Mitchell hit a couple 3s because otherwise it was quite effective. Maybe because it’s sticking with his guys to show that he trusts them? I don’t really know.

Last, I’m also starting to get concerned with player development. Obviously there have been some good successes in season like Lively last year but now I don’t know if that is frankly him just getting back from injury given how well he’s doing in the league. Our sophomores have been thoroughly disappointing. Not a single one is demonstrably better and/or more consistent than last year.

Obviously Scheyer has done well in other parts such as our over all defensive improvements but the three things I mention above are not small issues to be solved.

Fair post. The points in the first two paragraphs are very reasonable. I’ll have to chew on them a bit.

I think the questions around player development will be answered when Dereck Lively and potentially Jared McCain wind up being the only meaningful NBA contributors from Jon’s first two teams.

Yeah player development is hard to measure and that’s why I caveat it with starting to get concerned. Obviously it’s a two way street BUT seeing none of Mark Mitchell, Proctor or Flip meaningfully improve and regress in some areas has me a little worried. It’s not like a one off person but basically an entire class.

Anyway where I give him grace is he has had the unfortunate luck of multiple injuries to many different players. Again hard to measure but it just raises a flag in my head that makes me worried.

On the other hand, Roach would have been a pretty incredible development story, given who is was pre-Jon, if he'd just retired after his injury this season.

Definitely fair to be wary of it becoming a larger trend, though. I do think that, once again, next year will be telling there. If he gets something like Proctor-Foster-Mitchell back at the 1-3 as JRs/SO, we should be dominant and it will be pretty concerning if they don't look like enough to fit the bill for such a team by that point.

 

[Devilsforlife]

The 2022 class might wind up being somewhat similar to the Paulus/McRoberts and Thornton/Jeter ones. Better overall, but just not as good as hoped for at first. It happens sometimes.

 

[bdotling]

I’m not sure though if we can measure player development by if they end up in the league or not. I just meant more in the sense of are they steadily improving. Some of this will be natural through experience, some through coaching. So hard to say.
All I’m saying is we all had high hopes for the sophomores and relative to expectations they have all underdelivered (obviously there are flashes but the consistency overall is lacking) and that’s pretty rare to see for an entire class.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Duke Basketball social media is a reflection of the squishy softness of this team

 

[torontoduke]

I don't think Proctor has hit his ceiling. Like a number of other guards we've had, he seems like he's not there yet as a sophomore. Mostly physical strength-wise and mindset-wise, but shot-repetition is probably a part of it too.

I agree with this. Was he hurt in off-season?

Just didn't seem like he has improved his strength in year 2.

 

[torontoduke]

Goddammit. We cant even enjoy some good ol infighting without a dumbfuck Wake fan trying to ruin it

Another thread ruined

 

[childress22]

On the other hand, Roach would have been a pretty incredible development story, given who is was pre-Jon, if he'd just retired after his injury this season.

Not really following you here. It's not like just because he got hurt, and his stats will end up lower than they could have been, that means he developed less.

 

[bizy]

Many say this team has plenty of talent (individual), then what can we point to other than poor coaching and/or preparation and a virtual complete absence of on-floor leadership? I can’t remember being more frustrated about a Duke team than I am about this one. There’s no fire. No fight for 50/50 opportunities. No will to win. No ability to motivate the players. There's a poor understanding of offensive movement without the ball and a penchant for standing around watching teammates dribble. A seeming willingness to continue to tolerate the same kind of disjointed effort. It’s mind boggling and I'm blaming the coaches - all of them! The least a coach can do is put together a worthy TEAM with this much talent!

Aren’t you a Wake fan, anyway? Maybe Steve Forbes will finally make the First Four by 2030.

Not a Wake fan....just a Duke fan who doesn't wear blinders and can tell it like it is! NO EXCUSES NEXT YEAR!!!

 

[rome8180]

Late response but there are many things Scheyer hasn’t coached well. I think a particular weakness of his are inbound plays and end of half/end of game situations. At the end of game today we looked clueless as what to do on offense. These weaknesses to me in discrete situations infers that he’s not strong tactically.

I also think Jon is slow to adjust to certain game plans like Zona sagging off Mitchell. Two other teams copied that exact formula in the games after and there was no counter to it. State did it again today and we got lucky Mitchell hit a couple 3s because otherwise it was quite effective. Maybe because it’s sticking with his guys to show that he trusts them? I don’t really know.

Last, I’m also starting to get concerned with player development. Obviously there have been some good successes in season like Lively last year but now I don’t know if that is frankly him just getting back from injury given how well he’s doing in the league. Our sophomores have been thoroughly disappointing. Not a single one is demonstrably better and/or more consistent than last year.

Obviously Scheyer has done well in other parts such as our over all defensive improvements but the three things I mention above are not small issues to be solved.

Fair post. The points in the first two paragraphs are very reasonable. I’ll have to chew on them a bit.

I think the questions around player development will be answered when Dereck Lively and potentially Jared McCain wind up being the only meaningful NBA contributors from Jon’s first two teams.

I don't agree with the take that Jon is bad at inbounds plays AT ALL. I felt the success rate on those was incredibly high and was probably the most effective thing he did coaching-wise. '

The end-of-half stuff I can agree with. And I'm not going go back and analyze an entire season's worth of inbounds plays, but I'm very convinced the results would back me up on the success rate.

 

[rome8180]

I also don't agree with the player development point. Mark, Proctor, and Flip all had better seasons than last year on the whole. Lively got much better throughout the season last year. McCain got much better throughout the season this year, particularly at finishing in the lane against college comp. Roach made a massive jump from last year to this year. Maybe some of this would have happened regardless, but there was certainly enough that I can't count any of it against him.

I do agree with the in-game adjustments being slow.

 

[rome8180]

All that said, the recruiting won't stay elite if we keep having seasons like this. Need an unambiguously great season soon.

 

[dukeboy911]

Glad I didn't tune into last night. Told myself after last week's debacle against unc that I'd only tune in if we made the final. Looks like the team is finally entering a slump, and at the worst possible time.