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Battle 4 Atlantis - November 22-24, Bahamas

Maybe the most encouraging thing about this game was that we sort of won by just showing up. We shot terribly, Curry wasn't really Currying, Mason couldn't do much in the post, Ryan couldn't hit anything, etc., but everyone just did their job, never panicked, and the outcome never really seemed in doubt in the second. Encouraging because we did not have the margin for error, defense or maturity to do that against a good team last year.
 
That Lville game is a little deceiving. Some random transfer wing player went 5-7 from three, even though he's career sub 20%. I'm also assuming this was a typical undisciplined Frank Haith team and given their previous wins, might not even be ranked by the time it's all said done.
 
Besides the obvious (what happens when #2 offense meets #1 defense), I think defensive rebounding will be a huge key for us. They're bad offensively, but they've got the athletes to crash the boards and get garbage points.

Behanan worries me in that regard. This will be a another pretty good test of how we do against a team with a Sulaimon-dwarfing SF. I actually wonder if we'll see Thornton on him some if he can handle the pressure on the other end.
 
There's a few things that stand out to me about Louisville:

They're an excellent offensive rebounding team, they possess an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.8%. Which is currently the 5th best rating in the country.

They have extremely quick hands as a team and combine that with the press that Pitino employs, they steal the ball at a tremendous rate(16.2%) which is the 2nd highest steal percentage in the country.

Their shooting percentages suggests they're either bad shooters and/or they have a proclivity for jacking bad shots: 67.7% FT, 31.5% 3pt, 49.7% inside the arc from two. Those shooting numbers are good for 202nd, 200th and 107th in the country, respectively. In comparison we're ranked 31st, 41st and 52nd in them.

Another stat that suggests they may be susceptible to settling for bad shots, is their FT rate(ability to get to the line) of 0.303, which is #263rd in the country. We have a 0.448 FT rate, good for 66th in the country.

Defensively, they're phenomenal (easily the best defensive team we'll play all year, yes even better than Minn, UK and FSU) So instead of listing all their great defensive stats, I'll list the one that jumps out to me the most: They only allow opponents 17 made field goals per game, the second lowest rate in the country.
 
Thanks 2001Dukechamps. Please post more here. We value that kind of insight.

To give more of an idea of how good Louisville is defensively, I see that they're the 2nd best defensive team since Kenpom started tracking efficiency in 2003 (only worse than 2007 Kansas, by 0.001 points per possession). This is a historically great defensive team Duke is about to take on, but I think Duke is as well equipped as anyone to handle a great defense, since settling for 3s is not a bad outcome. As further proof that no defense can really control how well the opponent shoots 3s, Louisville is nationally average in opponent 3pt%. If there were ever a game where no one should complain about "living and dying by the 3," this would be it.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Thanks 2001Dukechamps. Please post more here. We value that kind of insight.

To give more of an idea of how good Louisville is defensively, I see that they're the 2nd best defensive team since Kenpom started tracking efficiency in 2003 (only worse than 2007 Kansas, by 0.001 points per possession). This is a historically great defensive team Duke is about to take on, but I think Duke is as well equipped as anyone to handle a great defense, since settling for 3s is not a bad outcome. As further proof that no defense can really control how well the opponent shoots 3s, Louisville is nationally average in opponent 3pt%. If there were ever a game where no one should complain about "living and dying by the 3," this would be it.
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Excellent point, I agree 100%. In fact I remember Ken Pomeroy made a point about that a while back. Quinn and Sheed's ability to find and make the extra pass on the perimeter is a big difference this year. Add Thornton's natural selflessness and you have team that's hard to limit on the perimeter. We just obviously have to hit our make-able shots and I like our chances. Oh, and contrary to popular belief Louisville isn't some uptempo, racehorse team(VCU wasn't either, but that idiot Donny Marshall didn't know any better)

Louisville played at a relatively normal 66.9 tempo last year(in comparison our pace was 67.6, K naturally loves to push the pace)
This year both squads play at similar(and faster) pace: 68.6(Cards) 68.2(Duke). Of course, be prepared for the announcers to ignorantly, spout the "Duke's going to have a hard time keeping up with Louisville's breakneck tempo and speedy athletes..." notion like they did yesterday against VCU(who actually plays at a slower pace than we do, at 66.8)
 
It's a little crazy that this the first K-Pitino game since 1992. I kind of feel like college hoops fans missed out on something.
 
I'm feeling like this is going to be a huge slugfest. I'm thinking 63-58 type final. Just not sure which way
 
Dieng won't be playing tonight.

So we have a hobbled Curry and they don't have their center. Great.


If Duke wins: "Duke beats hobbled Louisville team in sham win"
If Duke loses: "Duke loses despite facing a Louisville team decimated by injury"
 
Dieng out. Heard there was going to be flopping and decided the game was beneath him.
 
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