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Bracketology

It's the same issue with Winthrop which is only 90 minutes from Greenville. If Duke is in Greenville, they will be playing ETSU or Winthrop. Hopefully it's Winthrop since they aren't as good, but they do have this tiny guy - the school's all-time leading scorer - who would murder Duke:

 
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Maybe tanking the ACCT and dropping to a 5 seed isn't such a bad idea if Duke can avoid the embarrassment of losing to a guy like that. Just how bad does it suck to be a Duke fan these days? To be terrified of having to face a guard from a team outside of the top-100?
 
physicsfactor said:
It's the same issue with Winthrop which is only 90 minutes from Greenville. If Duke is in Greenville, they will be playing ETSU or Winthrop. Hopefully it's Winthrop since they aren't as good, but they do have this tiny guy - the school's all-time leading scorer - who would murder Duke:

Click to expand...



In all seriousness would think they'd realize the ridiculousness of this.
 
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There are like 2 pros and three dozen cons in regard to Duke playing in Greenville. I just don't want anything to do with it.
 
Some interesting 7-10 seed possibilities for Duke if Duke can win their 1st round game:

Marquette - Will know everything there is to know about Duke's scheme, like Notre Dame except to an even greater extent. Will shoot a ton of 3s and render the game a coin flip if they are hot.

Michigan State - Probably not going to be paired for a rematch. Not sure whether we want to be. Izzo in a later round game would be great for Duke. Izzo in an early round game could be dicey for any opponent.

Michigan - Probably a disaster for Duke. Playing as well as anyone. Like Marquette, will shoot a ton of 3s and could easily outshoot Duke.

Maryland - Has been vastly overrated by the public for years. Even more Grayson Allen hatred filling the internet than usual leading up to this game if it happens.

Wisconsin - This rematch would mean everything to the residents of Wisconsin, including the Wisconsin players.

St. Mary's - One spot behind Duke on kenpom. Would be no worse than 3-point underdogs to Duke. Complete and utter catastrophe by the selection committee to make them a 7-10 seed.
 
Gottlieb thinks we should get a 1 seed if we win tonight.
 
Just now starting to appreciate how important the Nova and Duke wins were last night, and how equally important it is that UNC (along with Nova/Kansas/Gonzaga) retain a 1-seed.

I had been operating under the assumption that UNC would always get Memphis, but a Nova loss probably drops them below UNC on the S-curve under the bizarre logic that has guided this season. New York is quite a bit closer to Chapel Hill than Memphis is, so UNC would have gone East and Nova to the South. Since the committee isn't putting UNC and Duke together as the top seeds in a region, that would have effectively taken away Duke's best possible venue. It also would have opened up possibilities like Nova/Kentucky/Duke in Memphis. If we have to play Kentucky at all, let it be in MSG at least.

I think the Duke win last night locks Duke into a 2 with three possibilities: Nova in MSG, Kansas in KC, or Gonzaga in San Jose. None of those options are terrible. Kansas is the worst of the 3, but I like the psychology of that rematch since Duke was missing so much in the first game. I'll take all of those options over the lottery of being a 1-seed. Would we get Kentucky as our 2 in Memphis? The Pac-12 champ as our 2 in California? Louisville or FSU as our 3? There are good scenarios too, but the bird in hand looks like the better option.
 
Jay Bilas thinks Duke should get a 1 if we win tonight.
 
Seth Greenberg blaming Duke's wins against UL and UNC on the refs calling fouls on Mitchell and Berry, ignoring that Tatum and Jefferson also fouled out in those games.

He does not see Duke as a 1 with a win.
 
Lunardi seems to be saying that the committee has already locked in the 1 seeds. He also said Duke needs to win to get a 2.
 
From what i've gathered, it appears UNC's lock is due to "winning the best conference in the country", and ignores a body of work analysis that would favor Duke. Essentially UNC is getting credit for the prowess of the ACC's tops teams despite playing a schedule that avoided playing any of them more than once or away from home. And conversely we're being punished for "finishing 5th" despite the hardest possible road schedule. This of course ignores other seeding criteria, but then again so is Lunardi and everyone talking about UNC's locked in one seed


Capel gagging against State is costing us worse than I thought it would.
 
This is going to be so homerish, but if the committee values all those things like injuries and coaching absences like they say they do, then the Kansas loss, the NCSU loss and the blowout at FSU shouldn't matter much. I think the biggest issues with seeding are the losses at the end of the season at Cuse and Miami. We had a full roster and our head coach. Win those very winnable games, and we're a 1 for sure. K should have won those games, even with a hobbled Allen and Amile.
 
Gottlieb is the only mainstream media guy I have noticed pick up on the issue of Duke's schedule strength. All others continue to ignore this issue.
 



What do ya know, the one seeds weren't "locked in" after all :roll:
 
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